Summary

Findings for all students

At age 15, students and their parents had high expectations for their future education attainment. Overall, students expected to achieve the same or a higher level of qualification than their parents.

Expectations were informed by parents’ highest qualifications. Most parents who had a degree expected their child to attain one. Two-thirds of parents with below-degree-level qualifications expected their child to do better than they had.

Expectations influenced school achievement. Students who had an expectation of attaining a degree were much more likely to attain University Entrance (UE).

Expectations had an influence on tertiary education attainment by age 28. Parents’ expectations of their children had a slightly stronger influence on attainment than the students’ own expectations. Where parents had a different expectation from the student, this could have a strong influence on increasing or decreasing the students’ tertiary education attainment.

Most of the influence of expectations on tertiary education attainment was explained by parents’ qualifications and the students’ school achievement. Once these were controlled for, higher expectations by parents had a small additional influence on attaining a degree.

Findings for Māori students

Parents of Māori students expected their children to do better than they had, and Māori students expected to do better than their parents. Māori students with the same level of expectations as other students had lower tertiary education achievement by age 28.

Parents of Māori students who had a degree had similar expectations of their children as other parents with degrees. Māori students whose parents had a degree had lower expectations of gaining a degree than their parents, and lower expectations than other students whose parents had a degree.

Māori students with the same level of expectations as other students had lower levels of school achievement.

Māori students’ expectations had more influence on their tertiary education attainment at age 28 than their parents’ expectations. However, parents’ and students’ expectations had little to no influence on tertiary attainment over and above parents’ qualification, students’ school achievement and other factors.

The findings from this analysis suggest that high parent and student expectations were not enough on their own to overcome the inequities experienced by Māori students in the education system.

Findings for female and male students

Female students had higher educational expectations from their parents and of themselves than male students. Female students had higher tertiary education achievement by age 28 than male students with the same level of expectations.

Parents with the same level of qualification were more likely to expect their daughters to gain a degree than their sons, and for their sons to attain a trade certificate than their daughters.

Female students were more likely than male students with the same level of expectation to gain higher qualifications at school.

Parents’ expectations had some influence on degree attainment for both female and male students after controlling for other factors. Student expectations only had an effect over and above other factors for male students.