Key findings for provider-based tertiary education

What does the 2020 data show?

Overall, the number of domestic and international students completing a qualification decreased in 2020 to 102,700 domestic students (down 9,565 or 8.5%), and 22,665 international students (down 1,125 or 4.7%). The past few years have seen declining completion numbers, but the disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have caused a greater decline in 2020. This had more impact on domestic than international completions, though international enrolments were, of course, strongly impacted.

• The decreases in domestic completions occurred across all fields of study except natural and physical sciences. The percentage decreases were greater for males than females, were much greater for Māori than for other ethnic groups, and were greater for under 19-year-olds and for those aged 40 years old or more, than for 20 to 39-year-olds.
• Domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates decreased slightly from 66% in 2019 to 64% in 2020. However, bachelors degree completion rates remained steady at 67%.
• Completion rates decreased in 2020 for all ethnic groups. For Māori and Pacific Peoples students enrolled in Level 4 certificates, this continued a decreasing pattern over several years. Asian students continue to have the highest completion rates for Level 4 certificates.
• Completion rates for bachelors degrees were steady across all ethnic groups, except Asian students who saw a slight decrease in 2020.
• Women and those studying full-time have higher qualification completion rates than men and part-time students respectively.
• The latest 8-year domestic retention rate for bachelors degrees across all types of study is 71%, while for full-time study the bachelors degree retention rate is 78%. Across all qualification levels and types of study, the 8-year domestic retention rate is 75%, while for full-time study it is 83%.
• Graduate progression rates in 2020 were very similar to those of 2019, apparently unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. For domestic students completing a qualification in 2019:
  • 35% of Level 1 and 2 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study in 2020
  • 27% of Level 3 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study
  • 34% of Level 4 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study, and
  • 21% of bachelors degree graduates continued with higher-level study.

Qualification completion numbers

The pattern of the past few years of declining student qualification completion numbers has continued in the context of declining enrolments in a strong labour market. But disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have caused a greater decline in 2020. The percentage change from 2018 to 2019 was a decrease of 4.1% across both domestic and international students, compared with 7.9% from 2019 to 2020.

• The overall number of domestic students who completed a qualification decreased by 8.5% (9,565 students) from 112,265 in 2019 to 102,700 in 2020. International student completions decreased overall by 4.7% (1,125 students) from 23,790 in 2019 to 22,665 in 2020. This is a slightly greater decrease than in 2019. International student completions seem not much impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but international enrolments, of course, were greatly affected (see Figure 1).
• The decreases in domestic completions were greater for Level 1-3 certificates than for higher qualifications. They were greater for males than females, were much greater for Māori (19%) than for other ethnic groups, and were greater for under 19-year-olds and for those aged 40 years old or more, compared to 20 to 39-year-olds. Wānanga saw a large decline in completions in 2020 (27%). Te Pūkenga subsidiaries’ completion declined by 12%, while private training establishments had a small decline, and universities a small increase.

Figure 1: Number of students completing qualifications 2011-2020

Qualification completion rates

Qualification completion rates can be calculated for any number of years after a group of students has started study. The completion rate for each qualification level reaches a plateau after which it no longer increases. The rates shown in the graphs below have different follow up periods to allow for the different length of qualification: 3 years for Level 4 certificates and 7 years for bachelors degrees.

Figures 2 and 3 compare completion rates for Level 4 certificates by study pattern and gender. Figures 4 and 5 compare bachelors degrees by the same variables.

Domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates decreased slightly from 66% in 2019 to 64% in 2020. However, bachelors degree completion rates have been steady at 67% since 2017. Completion rates for part-time students remain lower than for full-time students – much lower for part-time bachelors degrees than for part-time Level 4 Certificates. Completion rates for female students remain higher than for male students.

Figure 2: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by study pattern

Figure 3: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by gender

Figure 4: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by study pattern

Figure 5: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by gender

Figures 6 and 7 show domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates and bachelors degrees by ethnicity.

Level 4 certificate completion rates decreased in 2020 for all ethnic groups. For Māori and Pacific Peoples students, this continued a decreasing pattern over several years. Asian students continue to have the highest completion rates for Level 4 certificates.

Completion rates for bachelors degrees were steady across all ethnic groups, except Asian students who saw a slight decrease in 2020.

Figure 6: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by ethnicity

Figure 7: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by ethnicity

Retention rates

Retention rates measure how long students persist in their studies. The retention rate includes students who completed their qualification as well as those who did not complete their original qualification but continued their studies in a higher-level qualification. The complement of retention is attrition, or what proportion of students leave without completing.

The latest 8-year domestic retention rate across all types of study for bachelors degrees (beginning study in 2012) is 71%, while for full-time study the bachelors degree retention rate is 78%.

Across all qualification levels and types of study, the 8-year domestic retention rate is 75%, while for full-time study it is 83% (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: 8-year domestic retention rate by study pattern, bachelors degrees and all qualifications

Graduate progression rates

Many students continue their tertiary studies after completing a tertiary qualification, and this progression is often to a higher level of study than the qualification completed. Not surprisingly, graduate progression rates are usually higher for those completing lower-level certificate qualifications when compared to higher-level qualifications, such as graduate diplomas and masters degrees. An exception to this is bachelors degrees (a higher-level qualification), which also have relatively high graduate progression rates.

For domestic students completing a qualification in 2019:

• 35% of Level 1 and 2 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study in 2020
• 27% of Level 3 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study
• 34% of Level 4 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study, and
• 21% of bachelors degree graduates continued with higher-level study.

In contrast, 10% of those domestic students completing a graduate certificate or diploma in 2019 continued with higher-level study in 2020, while only 4% of masters graduates continued with higher-level study.

Progression to higher level study in 2020 seems unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technical Notes and Definitions

Methodology:

Full details of the method used to calculate tertiary qualification completion, attrition, direct progression and graduate progression rates can be found in the factsheet: How does the Ministry of Education calculate tertiary qualification completion rates? It covers terminology and definitions, and provides worked examples of the calculations, as well as example data tables with guides to their interpretation. See https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/publications/80898/how-does-the-ministry-of-education-calculate-tertiary-qualification-completion-rates