Key findings for provider-based tertiary achievement

What does the 2020 data show?

Overall, the number of domestic and international students completing a qualification decreased in 2020 to 102,700 domestic students (down 9,565 or 8.5%), and 22,665 international students (down 1,125 or 4.7%). The past few years have seen declining completion numbers, but the disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have caused a greater decline in 2020. This had more impact on domestic than international completions, though international enrolments were, of course, strongly impacted.

• The decreases in domestic completions occurred across all fields of study except natural and physical sciences. The percentage decreases were greater for males than females, were much greater for Māori than for other ethnic groups, and were greater for under 19-year-olds and for those aged 40 years old or more, than for 20 to 39-year-olds.
• Domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates decreased slightly from 66% in 2019 to 64% in 2020. However, bachelors degree completion rates remained steady at 67%.
• Completion rates decreased in 2020 for all ethnic groups. For Māori and Pacific Peoples students enrolled in Level 4 certificates, this continued a decreasing pattern over several years. Asian students continue to have the highest completion rates for Level 4 certificates.
• Completion rates for bachelors degrees were steady across all ethnic groups, except Asian students who saw a slight decrease in 2020.
• Women and those studying full-time have higher qualification completion rates than men and part-time students respectively.
• The latest 8-year domestic retention rate for bachelors degrees across all types of study is 71%, while for full-time study the bachelors degree retention rate is 78%. Across all qualification levels and types of study, the 8-year domestic retention rate is 75%, while for full-time study it is 83%.
• Graduate progression rates in 2020 were very similar to those of 2019, apparently unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. For domestic students completing a qualification in 2019:
  • 35% of Level 1 and 2 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study in 2020
  • 27% of Level 3 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study
  • 34% of Level 4 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study, and
  • 21% of bachelors degree graduates continued with higher-level study.

Qualification completion numbers

The pattern of the past few years of declining student qualification completion numbers has continued in the context of declining enrolments in a strong labour market. But disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have caused a greater decline in 2020. The percentage change from 2018 to 2019 was a decrease of 4.1% across both domestic and international students, compared with 7.9% from 2019 to 2020.

• The overall number of domestic students who completed a qualification decreased by 8.5% (9,565 students) from 112,265 in 2019 to 102,700 in 2020. International student completions decreased overall by 4.7% (1,125 students) from 23,790 in 2019 to 22,665 in 2020. This is a slightly greater decrease than in 2019. International student completions seem not much impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but international enrolments, of course, were greatly affected (see Figure 1).
• The decreases in domestic completions were greater for Level 1-3 certificates than for higher qualifications. They were greater for males than females, were much greater for Māori (19%) than for other ethnic groups, and were greater for under 19-year-olds and for those aged 40 years old or more, compared to 20 to 39-year-olds. Wānanga saw a large decline in completions in 2020 (27%). Te Pūkenga subsidiaries’ completion declined by 12%, while private training establishments had a small decline, and universities a small increase.

Figure 1: Number of students completing qualifications 2011-2020

Qualification completion rates

Qualification completion rates can be calculated for any number of years after a group of students has started study. The completion rate for each qualification level reaches a plateau after which it no longer increases. The rates shown in the graphs below have different follow up periods to allow for the different length of qualification: 3 years for Level 4 certificates and 7 years for bachelors degrees.

Figures 2 and 3 compare completion rates for Level 4 certificates by study pattern and gender. Figures 4 and 5 compare bachelors degrees by the same variables.

Domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates decreased slightly from 66% in 2019 to 64% in 2020. However, bachelors degree completion rates have been steady at 67% since 2017. Completion rates for part-time students remain lower than for full-time students – much lower for part-time bachelors degrees than for part-time Level 4 Certificates. Completion rates for female students remain higher than for male students.

Figure 2: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by study pattern

Figure 3: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by gender

Figure 4: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by study pattern

Figure 5: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by gender

Figures 6 and 7 show domestic completion rates for Level 4 certificates and bachelors degrees by ethnicity.

Level 4 certificate completion rates decreased in 2020 for all ethnic groups. For Māori and Pacific Peoples students, this continued a decreasing pattern over several years. Asian students continue to have the highest completion rates for Level 4 certificates.

Completion rates for bachelors degrees were steady across all ethnic groups, except Asian students who saw a slight decrease in 2020.

Figure 6: Level 4 certificate 3-year domestic completion rates by ethnicity

Figure 7: Bachelors degree 7-year domestic completion rates by ethnicity

Retention rates

Retention rates measure how long students persist in their studies. The retention rate includes students who completed their qualification as well as those who did not complete their original qualification but continued their studies in a higher-level qualification. The complement of retention is attrition, or what proportion of students leave without completing.

The latest 8-year domestic retention rate across all types of study for bachelors degrees (beginning study in 2012) is 71%, while for full-time study the bachelors degree retention rate is 78%.

Across all qualification levels and types of study, the 8-year domestic retention rate is 75%, while for full-time study it is 83% (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: 8-year domestic retention rate by study pattern, bachelors degrees and all qualifications

Graduate progression rates

Many students continue their tertiary studies after completing a tertiary qualification, and this progression is often to a higher level of study than the qualification completed. Not surprisingly, graduate progression rates are usually higher for those completing lower-level certificate qualifications when compared to higher-level qualifications, such as graduate diplomas and masters degrees. An exception to this is bachelors degrees (a higher-level qualification), which also have relatively high graduate progression rates.

For domestic students completing a qualification in 2019:

• 35% of Level 1 and 2 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study in 2020
• 27% of Level 3 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study
• 34% of Level 4 certificate graduates continued with higher-level study, and
• 21% of bachelors degree graduates continued with higher-level study.

In contrast, 10% of those domestic students completing a graduate certificate or diploma in 2019 continued with higher-level study in 2020, while only 4% of masters graduates continued with higher-level study.

Progression to higher level study in 2020 seems unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technical Notes: Provider-based tertiary education

Methodology:

Full details of the method used to calculate tertiary qualification completion, attrition, direct progression and graduate progression rates can be found in the factsheet:

• How does the Ministry of Education calculate tertiary qualification completion rates? It covers terminology and definitions, and provides worked examples of the calculations, as well as example data tables with guides to their interpretation. See https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/publications/80898/how-does-the-ministry-of-education-calculate-tertiary-qualification-completion-rates

Overview

The proportion of New Zealanders with qualifications has been increasing for several decades. But growth has slowed since 2019, and gaps persist for Māori and Pacific peoples, especially at degree level and higher. Educational attainment in New Zealand is similar to the average for OECD countries. Distribution of the population aged 25 to 64 by highest educational qualification. This covers the population who are likely to have completed their initial school and tertiary education and less likely to have retired.

Educational attainment in the population is an important indicator in measuring how well societies are doing. People with higher-level qualifications have higher employment and earnings than those with low or no qualifications. They are also more likely to experience a range of better social outcomes, such as better health, social connection and civic engagement.

As the requirements for many jobs, and the expectations of employers, continue to change, education provides the skills and knowledge necessary for participation in society and for a more productive workforce. Education contributes to an expansion of scientific and cultural knowledge. A population's educational levels are positively related to economic growth rates and to a country's capacity to provide its citizens with a high standard of living.

People's qualifications are often considered a proxy for 'human capital', that is, their skills and knowledge. Changes in the educational attainment of the population also provides information about access to education and the equity of the education system.

Knowing how educational attainment in New Zealand compares with other countries is an important measure of how well our system is going, and where we might learn from other countries.

How We Are Going

Educational qualification attainment has been increasing steadily over the last few decades. In 2001, nearly a quarter (24 percent) of 25 to 64-year-olds did not hold even a school qualification. By 2020, this has reduced to less than 15 percent. However, growth slowed in 2019, and the proportion of adults with no qualifications has remained around 15 percent since 2018.

Figure 1: Distribution of the population aged 25 to 64 by highest qualification level

Notes:

1. Qualification level data prior to 2013 is not completely comparable with that from 2013 due to changes made to the qualification question in the survey in 2013.
2. Values represent an average of March, June, September and December quarters.
3. Source: Ministry of Education analysis of Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey data.

More New Zealanders have also gained tertiary education qualifications. The proportion of 25 to 64-year-olds with a tertiary education qualification has increased from 54 percent in 2001 to 64 percent in 2020. All of this growth has been at bachelors degree level or higher, which has more than doubled from 13 percent in 2001to 35 percent in 2020.

Growth in the number of people with a school qualification, or with a bachelors degree, as their highest qualification has seen the relative share of people with a tertiary certificate or diploma decrease from 41 percent in 2001 to 28 percent in 2020. Despite this decrease in proportion, the actual number of people with a tertiary certificate or diploma as their highest qualification in 2020 is similar to the level it was two decades ago. New Zealanders are more likely to hold a qualification below diploma-level compared with other anglophone countries in the OECD (Figure 4).

More Māori and Pacific people are gaining at least a school qualification, but the education gap remains, especially at degree level

While qualification attainment for Māori and Pacific peoples has increased noticeably over the last few decades, the gap in attainment between these two groups and other groups persists. The proportion of Māori aged 25 to 64 with at least a school qualification was 72 percent in 2020, up from 59 percent two decades ago. For Pacific peoples it was 70 percent in 2020, up from 66 percent two decades ago. Attainment at the total population level was significantly higher, at 85 percent, up from 76 percent two decades ago. Growth in qualification attainment has slowed across all groups in the last two years, and the gap in attainment between Māori and Pacific peoples and the total population has remained at around 15 percent.

Figure 2: Percentage of Māori and Pacific peoples aged 25 to 64 with at least a school qualification

Notes:

1. Around 2%-4% have not stated their qualifications. These have been counted as having no qualifications, so the figures in this table are likely to slightly underestimate true levels of qualification attainment.
2. Qualification level data prior to 2013 is not completely comparable with that from 2013 due to changes made to the qualification question in the survey in 2013.
3. Values represent an average of the March, June, September and December quarters.
4. Source: Ministry of Education analysis of Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey data.

Figure 3: Percentage of Māori and Pacific peoples aged 25 to 64 with a bachelors or higher qualification

Notes:

1. Qualification level data prior to 2013 is not completely comparable with that from 2013 due to changes made to the qualification question in the survey in 2013.
2. Values represent an average of the March, June, September and December quarters.
3. Source: Ministry of Education analysis of Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey data.

The proportion of Māori aged 25 to 64 with a bachelors or higher qualification in 2020 was 18 percent. The comparable figure for Pacific peoples was 15 percent. These are significantly lower than the figure for the total population, of 35 percent. Growth has slowed in the last two years for all groups.

While degree or higher attainment for both Māori and Pacific peoples has increased significantly over the last few decades, it has not increased as much as for other groups, leading to an increase in the gap in attainment.

Educational attainment of New Zealanders is similar to OECD average

The educational attainment of New Zealanders aged 25 to 64 was similar to the OECD average in 2019. Eighty one percent had attained at least an upper-secondary-level education, which under international standards is at least a Level 2 school qualification or higher.

Similarly, the proportion of New Zealanders aged 25 to 64 with a diploma-level qualification or higher was 39 percent, similar to the OECD average of 40 percent.

Compared with other anglophone countries in the OECD, New Zealanders are less likely to hold a diploma or higher, and more likely to hold a qualification below diploma-level.

Figure 4: Educational attainment in 2019 of the population aged 25 to 64-year-olds for selected OECD countries

Note:

1. OECD (2020) Education at a Glance: OECD indicators 2020, Table A1.1.

References

• OECD (2020). Education at a Glance 2020: OECD indicators. Paris: OECD.

Some things to note

The age group 25 to 64 is used in this summary, as it covers the population who are likely to have completed their initial school and tertiary education and less likely to have retired.

The information used here relates just to the highest qualification that people have attained. They may have attained these qualifications in New Zealand or overseas. The qualifications may have been attained recently or up to 40 years ago. Because it relates to the highest qualification attained, it won’t reflect the total attainment for different levels of education. For example, almost all people with degree qualifications will also have a school qualification.

Trends in attainment are also influenced by long-run changes in participation and completion in New Zealand education, as well as the skills of people settling in New Zealand.