Last updated: April 2026

Summary

The National School Roll Projections (NSRP) are produced each year to estimate the number of full-time equivalent students (FTE)¹ who will be enrolled in New Zealand schools in future years. This summary page presents an overview of 10-year projections from the 2025 NSRP, completed in September 2025.

A spreadsheet providing some more detailed projected roll data is also available for download on this page. The spreadsheet contains the same data used for all figures in this summary.

Key findings

• The total regular school roll² is projected to decrease from 842,221 FTE students in 2025 to 818,522 in five years’ time, a decrease of approximately 2.8% (refer to Figure 1, below). Beyond 2030, the total regular school roll is projected to further decrease, falling by around 18,018 (-2.2%) from 818,522 in 2030 to 800,503 in 2035.
• The historic short-term rise and projected longer-term fall can be attributed mainly to a mini ‘baby-boom’ of larger birth cohorts, which peaked in 2007 and 2010 and are now moving out of the schooling system. As a result, the overall school population will drop primarily based on lower births in subsequent cohorts.
• Total estimated school-age net migration is 11,103 in the year to 30 June 2025, as per data available at 10 July 2025. Projected school-age net migration in the short term is 10,215 for 2026 which is lower than what the 2024 NSRP expected for 2025 and 2026. The projected school-age net migration in the long term is increasing to 12,310 in 2030 based on Stats NZ’s 2024-base net migration projection, which is higher than projected (7,700) in the 2024 NSRP. Compared to the 2024 NSRP, lower estimated and projected school-age net migration in 2025 and 2026 has resulted in lower total projected school rolls in the short term. However, higher projected school-age net migration in the long term has increased the total projected school rolls.
• The Specialist School roll is projected to increase over the 10-year forecast period, from 7,174 in 2025 to 8,058 in 2035. The Homeschooling roll is projected to increase from 11,014 in 2025 to a peak of 11,297 students in 2028, before trending slightly downward to 11,132 in 2035.

Figure 1: School FTE roll (2015-2025) and projected FTE school roll (2026-2035) for the total school roll, primary school roll, and secondary school roll.

Notes: Specialist school and homeschooling students are excluded from this figure. Projections are indicated by a dashed line, while actuals are presented as a solid line.

Technical notes

The National School Roll Projections (NSRP) are typically updated annually, provided there are no significant changes in key drivers. All the assumptions and data sources applied in the 2025 NSRP are as at early August 2025.

The projections cover all student populations except for foreign fee-paying students. The primary regular school roll includes school years 1-8 (regardless of school type), while the secondary regular school roll includes school years 9-15³. The specialist school roll covers students with high needs support, who attend either day specialist schools, Oranga Tamariki schools, sensory schools, Regional Health Schools, or residential schools across New Zealand. The homeschooling roll includes students whose parents, caregivers and whānau prefer to educate their child at home and have approval to home educate. Specialist school roll projections and homeschooling roll projections are projected separately.

These projections cover students from Year 1 to Year 15, attending State, State-integrated, Private schools, and alternative education settings. They include adult students, Secondary Tertiary Programme (STP) students, and students receiving scholarships from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID) but exclude foreign fee-paying students.

The NSRP estimate the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) students that will be enrolled in New Zealand schools, not a headcount. A full-time equivalent student is enrolled for 20 class contact hours per week. FTE is 1.0 for all students in primary school Year level 1-8 and all students aged <16 in secondary school. However, there are some exceptions, when students are an external student or are attending a Secondary Tertiary Programme, they can study part-time in the relevant school, and therefore, the FTE is less than 1.0. Once students are beyond 16 years old, school is optional. They can transit to further education, vocational training (e.g. Secondary Tertiary Programme) or a career. They are able to choose some courses and study part-time in school, and FTE is less than 1.0.

The projections are effectively point-in-time estimates, focusing on the roll return dates that best represent expected peak roll (March for secondary and July for primary⁴). For ease of presentation, 2025 is used to denote the March (for secondary) and July (for primary) roll in 2025, and so on for subsequent years. However, during a year, there can be changes due to external factors which can influence the schooling population..

In forecasting the roll, we attempt to produce our best midpoint estimate of what actual roll will be. All other things being equal, there is a 50% chance that the roll will be higher than forecast by the NSRP, and a 50% chance that the roll will be lower.

The drivers of school rolls are greatly determined by individual choices. These include the choice to have children, to move to (or away from) New Zealand, and to stay in secondary school or pursue other pathways. The relationship between these choices and economic and social conditions is complex and dynamic, even when the conditions themselves are stable. However, from early 2020, the economic and social outlook has been in flux due to COVID-19 which exacerbates uncertainty in producing these projections. With a significant increase in net migration in 2023 and 2025, there is uncertainty about the level of migration in both the near term and the longer term.

Footnotes

1. A full-time equivalent student is enrolled for 20 class contact hours per week. FTE is 1.0 for all students in Years 1-8 and all students aged <16 unless the student is an external student or attending a Secondary Tertiary Programme.
2. This excludes International fee-paying students. Students in Specialist School or Homeschooling pathways are excluded from these totals but are forecast through the NSRP and presented separately.
3. Funding year level: Prior to 2008 this was known as Year of Schooling or MOE Year Level. The Funding Year Level measures the number of years of schooling a student has received and provides the Ministry of Education with a method of counting students for funding and staffing purposes. The Funding Year Level for most students is based on the date they first started school. It is independent of the way schools are organised and independent of the particular programme of study that a student may undertake.
4. The 2025 NSRP was completed before the July roll data was finalised. 2025 roll numbers may vary from the 2025 roll data published on Education Counts.