National school roll projections

This page presents results of 10-year projections from the 2023 National School Roll Projections (NSRP). These projections estimate the number of full-time equivalent students who will be enrolled in New Zealand schools in future years.

Last Updated: February 2024

Disclaimer: These national level projections may differ from other projections produced by the Ministry for regional level network planning purposes. The NSRP is produced for the Ministry of Education’s internal planning purposes and must be treated with caution for any other use. These projections were carried out using the best knowledge available at the time of development. Uncertainties in live births, external and internal migration, and retention rates can impact the reliability of projections. Inevitably, some assumptions will not materialize, and unanticipated circumstances may lead to unexpected growth or decline in actual school rolls.

Summary

The National School Roll Projections (NSRP) are produced each year to estimate the number of full-time equivalent students (FTE) who will be enrolled in New Zealand schools in future years. This summary page presents an overview of 10-year projections from the 2023 NSRP, completed in October 2023.

A spreadsheet providing some more detailed projected roll data is also available for download on this page. The spreadsheet contains the same data used for all figures in this summary.

Key Findings

  • The total regular school roll2 is projected to increase from 821,146 FTE students in 2023 to a projected peak of 827,834 in 2025, before falling back to 813,788 in 2028, a slight decrease of 0.9% over the five-year period (refer to Figure 1, below). Beyond 2028, the total school roll is projected to decrease, falling by around 26,680 from 813,788 in 2028 to 787,109 in 2033.  Reductions are expected to be experienced in both primary (2.8%) and secondary (4.0%).
  • This ‘short-term rise, longer-term fall’ pattern can be attributed mainly to a mini ‘baby-boom’ of larger birth cohorts, which peaked in 2007 and 2012 (above 60,000 annually) and are now moving through the secondary years of their education journey beyond ultimately leaving the schooling system. As a result, the overall school population will drop primarily based on lower births in subsequent cohorts.
  • The impact of higher net migration in 2023 and projected migration in the following three years have raised the total projected school roll to a higher level than projected in the 2022 NSRP, but don’t change the future trend significantly.
  • The Specialist School roll is projected to grow across the 10-year forecast period from 6,542 in 2023 to reach 7,709 in 2033. The Homeschooling roll is projected to increase from 10,845 in 2023 to a projected peak of 10,990 students in 2025, and then slightly trend down to 10,454 in 2033.
Figure 1: School FTE roll (2013-2023) and projected FTE school roll (2024-2033) for total school rolls, primary school roll, and secondary school rolls.

National School Roll Projection : Figure 1

Notes:

  1. Specialist school and homeschooling students are excluded from this figure.
  2. Projections are indicated by a dashed line, while actuals are presented as a solid line.

Primary School

The Primary regular school roll increased by 3,765 students (0.7%) from 2022 to 2023. This increase was primarily driven by significant increases in net migration. The Primary regular school roll is projected to decrease from 521,231 in 2023 to 488,140 in 2033 (refer to Figure 2, below). This drop represents a decrease of 6.3% (-33,091) from 2023 to 2033. The downward trend over the next 10 years is mainly driven by a lower number of births, and larger birth cohorts which peaked in 2007 and 2012 transitioning from primary school to secondary school.

Figure 2: School roll (2013-2023) and projected school roll (2024-2033) for primary school.

National School Roll Projection : Figure 2

Notes:

  1. Specialist school and homeschooling students are excluded from this figure.
  2. Projections are indicated by a dashed line, where actuals are presented in a solid line.

Secondary School

The Secondary regular school roll is projected to increase by 4.6% from 299,915 in 2023 to a projected peak of 313,762 in 2027 (an increase of 13,847), before starting to fall (refer to Figure 3, below). The upward trajectory of the Secondary roll is driven by the interplay of two main factors: 1) the progression of larger birth cohorts born during the post-Global Financial Crisis period from primary into secondary school; and 2) the higher school-age net migration in 2023 and for a few years afterwards. Beyond 2027, the Secondary regular school roll is projected to fall by 14,793 from 313,762 in 2027 to 298,968 in 2033 (a 4.7% decrease).

Figure 3: School roll (2013-2023) and projected school roll (2024-2033) for secondary school.

National School Roll Projection : Figure 3

Notes:

  1. Specialist school and homeschooling students are excluded from this figure.
  2. Projections are indicated by a dashed line, where actuals are presented as a solid line.

Specialist School

The average growth rate for specialist schools has been around 5.9% per year, for the last five years. The specialist school roll is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years, with the growth rate declining slightly. The specialist school roll is projected to reach 7,709 in 2033, an increase of 1,167 (17.8%) from 6,542 in 2023 (refer to Figure 4, below).

Figure 4: School roll (2013-2023) and projected school roll (2024-2033) for specialist schooling.

National School Roll Projection : Figure 4

Note:  Projections are indicated by a dashed line, where actuals are presented in a solid line.

Homeschooling

The homeschooling roll has been gradually increasing since 2016, with an average growth rate of 4.3% between 2016 and 2019. However, the roll experienced significant increases of 9.4% and 7.7% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, then a record high increase of 41.3% in 2022 (an increase of 3,198 students from 7,749 in 2021). There was a 0.9% decrease between 2022 and 2023 (a decrease of 100 students from 10,945 in 2022 to 10,845 in 2023). The homeschooling roll is projected to peak at 10,990 students in 2025 and then slightly trend down afterwards. In the long term, the roll is projected to slowly decrease by 536 to 10,454 in 2033 (a 5% decrease from 2025).

Figure 5: School roll (2013-2023) and projected school roll (2024-2033) for homeschooling.

National School Roll Projection : Figure 5

Note:  Projections are indicated by a dashed line, where actuals are presented in a solid line.

Technical Notes

The NSRP is currently updated once a year. All the assumptions and data sources applied in the 2023 NSRP are as at early August 2023.

The projections cover all student populations except for foreign fee-paying students. The primary regular school roll includes school years 1-8 (regardless of school type), while the secondary regular school roll includes school years 9-153. The specialist school roll covers students with high needs support, who attend either day schools or residential schools across New Zealand. The homeschooling roll includes students whose parents, caregivers and whānau prefer to educate their child at home and have approval to home educate. Specialist school roll projections and homeschooling roll projections are projected separately.

These projections cover students from Year 1 to Year 15, attending State, State-integrated, Private schools, and alternative education settings. They include adult students, Secondary Tertiary Programme (STP) students, and students receiving scholarships from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), but exclude foreign fee-paying students.

The NSRP estimate the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) students that will be enrolled in New Zealand schools, not a headcount. A full-time equivalent student is enrolled for 20 class contact hours per week. FTE is 1.0 for all students in Primary school Year level 1-8 and all students aged <16 in Secondary school. However, there are some exceptions, when students are an external student or are attending a Secondary Tertiary Programme, they can study part time in the relevant school, and therefore, the FTE is less than 1.0. Once students are beyond 16 years old, school is optional. They can transit to further education, vocational training (e.g. Secondary Tertiary Programme) or a career. They are able to choose some courses and study part-time in school, and FTE is less than 1.0.

The projections are effectively point-in-time estimates, focusing on the roll return dates that best represent expected peak roll (March for secondary and July for Primary4). For ease of presentation, 2023 is used to denote the March (for secondary) and July (for primary) roll in 2023, and so on for subsequent years. However, during a year, there can be changes due to external factors which can influence the schooling population.

In forecasting the roll, we attempt to produce our best midpoint estimate of what actual roll will be. All other things being equal, there is a 50% chance that the roll will be higher than forecast by the NSRP, and a 50% chance that the roll will be lower.

The drivers of school rolls are greatly determined by individual choices. These include the choice to have children, to move to (or away from) New Zealand, and to stay in secondary school or pursue other pathways. The relationship between these choices and economic and social conditions is complex and dynamic, even when the conditions themselves are stable. However, from early 2020, the economic and social outlook has been in flux due to COVID-19 which exacerbates uncertainty in producing these projections. With a significant increase in net migration in 2023, there is uncertainty about the level of migration in both the near term and the longer term.

Footnotes

  1. A full-time equivalent student is enrolled for 20 class contact hours per week. FTE is 1.0 for all students in Years 1-8 and all students aged <16 unless the student is an external student or attending a Secondary Tertiary Programme.
  2. This excludes International fee-paying students. Students in Specialist School or Homeschooling pathways are excluded from these totals, but are forecast through the NSRP and presented separately below.
  3. Funding year level: Prior to 2008 this was known as Year of Schooling or MOE Year Level. The Funding Year Level measures the number of years of schooling a student has received and provides the Ministry of Education with a method of counting students for funding and staffing purposes. The Funding Year Level for most students is based on the date they first started school. It is independent of the way schools are organised and independent of the particular programme of study that a student may undertake.
  4. The 2023 NSRP was completed before the July roll data was finalised. 2023 roll numbers may vary from the 2023 roll data published on Education Counts.