Summary

Key Findings

This paper comments on some of the possible consequences for the size and make up of the tertiary student population of changes in the New Zealand population over the next two decades – changes in the ethnic diversity, age composition and regional distribution of the population

The modelling that underlies the analysis in this report found a tertiary sector that is still growing if at a much slower rate than that experienced in recent years. The size of the student population will peak during the forecast period at record levels bringing about greater student diversity in terms of age and ethnicity.

Locally, projected population change may impact on future levels of students in parts of the network of public provision of tertiary education, particularly for those providers with a strong regional focus such as institutes of technology and polytechnics. Many polytechnic campuses are located in areas that are expected to experience population decline over the next twenty years.

Finally, as a component of population, a projected increase in net inward migration may result in a potential increase in the number of students attending tertiary education in New Zealand over the next couple of years.

Key findings of the report are:

• The rate of growth in tertiary students will slow significantly from that experienced in the peak growth period of 1999 and 2004. The size of the tertiary student population will peak in 2016 with around 483,000 domestic students - an increase of 6 percent over that of 2005, before decreasing slightly to 480,000 in 2021. People aged 40 years and over will comprise over half of all growth in domestic student numbers between 2005 and 2014.
• Demand for sub-degree tertiary education will continue to dominate growth in student numbers (72 percent of all growth). The expected bulge in the population aged 18 to 24 years will, however, lead to record numbers of students studying at bachelors degree-level in the short term. But the proportion of the tertiary student population studying at this and higher levels will then decrease.
• Students of European ethnicity are expected to decrease from 65 percent of all students to 57 percent between 2005 and 2021, while there will be relatively more Māori, Pasifika, and most noticeably, Asian students - who will comprise 16 percent of all students by 2021.
• Analysis of school leaver attainment predicts a diminishing proportion of school leavers with a university entrance qualification. This trend occurs as a result of changes in the ethnic composition of the school population and despite slight improvements recently in school achievement levels for each ethnic group.
• Population change may have implications for providers with a strong regional focus. In many cases, the population of the areas in which an Institute of Technology and Polytechnic (ITP) is present is decreasing out to 2026. Of the 56 ITP campuses spread throughout New Zealand , there is expected to be population decline among people aged 15 to 39 years in the areas of 37 campuses and among people aged 40 to 64 years for 26 campuses. Implications of local population decrease will be further compounded in areas where there are multiple tertiary education providers.
• It is expected that the outflow of young educated people that has always occurred will continue but that it may recede slightly over the next three years. In conjunction with this, if the gains in educated migrants of recent years are sustained, then the 'brain gain' experienced over the last census period could continue. Also, given the number of bachelors degree qualifications attained in the coming years, New Zealand 's human education capital, as measured by those people with a degree, will continue to increase.