Publication Details

The New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast report presents the methodology used by the Ministry of Education to forecast the demand for provider-based tertiary education at Levels 3 and above on the New Zealand Qualifications Framework. It also includes the most recent forecast, and historical forecasts back to 2016.

The report on the accuracy of the provider-based tertiary demand methodology compares the forecasts with actual tertiary enrolments. An accompanying spreadsheet shows the data and calculations used in the accuracy report.

The Ministry has not produced a forecast for industry training this year. Policy initiatives to increase industry trainees, changes to the funding models, and with some learners still being funded under COVID 19 initiatives, means the demand for industry training is difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The last industry training forecast was done in 2019.

Author(s): Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis, Ministry of Education.

Date Published: June 2026