Summary

The tool was developed by the Ministry to estimate the number of teachers required by schools in the future and compare this with an estimate of how many teachers are expected to be employed by schools in future under current policy settings. Prior to the development of this tool in 2018 the Ministry did not have a robust method for estimating future teacher supply and demand. Initial results were released in October 2018¹.

The Full Technical Report available for download is based on the original set of results and has not been updated with any new data.

Key Findings

• The revised projections confirm progress has been made over the past year to improve teacher supply. We have observed significant growth in entrants to the education workforce in 2018 and 2019, particularly in the primary sector. The estimate for the overall supply of teachers in 2020 is now about 1,340 teachers more than was previously projected in the initial results. This is part due to an increase in the number of new teachers joining the workforce from overseas.
• The revised projections also present an increase in the demand for teachers. This is also more pronounced in the primary sector than the secondary sector. We have included an increase to teacher headcount from 2020 onwards as Learning Support Coordinators² (LSCs) join the workforce thereby increasing the demand for teachers. The estimate for overall demand for teachers in 2020 is now about 1,180 more than the initial results. Over half of this increase is due to the introduction of the LSCs.
• We now estimate that demand for teachers in primary schools in 2020 will exceed the supply, with an estimated shortfall of 860 teachers under a ‘do nothing additional’ scenario.
• For secondary schools, we estimate a shortfall of 160 teachers in 2020.

Footnotes

1. He Whakaaro: The Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool 2018 Summary Report
2. New Learning Support Coordinators