Summary

This is the fifth annual release of the Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Projection. This projection is constructed to forecast the number of teachers required by schools in the future, and to compare this with an estimate of how many teachers schools will be able to employ if there is sufficient demand. The results of this forecasting are used as an input into the Ministry’s advice on teacher supply.

The Summary Report contains the results from the Projection.

Key Findings

• The demand for secondary teachers is projected to grow year-on-year out to 2025. In contrast, the demand for primary teachers is projected to drop year-on-year 2023 to 2026.
• Last year we noted an increased retention of teachers in the workforce—about 91% compared to the usual 89.5%. Estimates so far indicate that retention is returning to a pre-COVID level.
• In September, Cabinet agreed to allocate $23.626 million to increase teacher supply by 177 domestic teachers and 760 international teachers for the 2023 teaching year. These initiatives are targeted to address regional and subject-level pressures experienced by some schools and have been taken into account in the 2022 TDS projections.
• The teacher demand and supply projections make assumptions about key inputs (such as student numbers and teacher retention rates) and how these are likely to change over the coming years. While historically we have based these assumptions on past trends, these trends were significantly disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted and borders have opened, there are questions about when (or if) key inputs will fully return to pre-pandemic trends. This results in an increase in the complexity in modelling the outlook for teacher demand and supply in New Zealand (albeit less so than the 2021 projections). We have addressed this complexity by again providing ranges based on two potential scenarios for how inputs track over the coming three years.
• In a ‘low supply’ scenario, lower retention rates of secondary teachers are assumed for 2023 and 2024, before scaling back to pre-COVID-19 retention rates from 2025. This scenario assumes a generally increased workforce exit rate for teachers, across all ages. Additionally, this scenario assumes a lower intake of additional teachers from the Ministry initiatives aimed at increasing teacher supply. In this scenario, we are anticipating that supply will be short of demand by about 40 to 620 secondary teachers in 2023–2025. In the primary sector, supply will exceed demand by about 640–1,790 teachers in 2023–2025.
• In a ‘high supply’ scenario, pre-COVID-19 teacher retention rates are assumed to be in place from 2023 onwards. Additionally, this scenario assumes a higher intake of additional teachers from the Ministry initiatives aimed at increasing teacher supply. Under this scenario, supply will exceed demand by about 1,030–2,260 primary teachers in the years 2023 to 2025. In the secondary sector, supply will exceed demand in 2023 and 2024, by about 370 to 40 teachers, dropping to a shortage of 130 teachers by 2025.
• Over the coming years, the Ministry will likely continue development of new teacher supply initiatives to meet shortfalls in teacher supply in the secondary sector, to ensure schools have access to the right teachers according to their needs.