Education Counts

Page navigation links

  • Education Counts Logo
  • Skip to Primary Navigation Menu
  • Skip to Secondary Navigation Menu
  • Skip to search
  • Skip to content

Site Search

Site Search

Site navigation menus

  • Know your Region
  • Communities of Learning
  • Find your nearest school
  • Early Learning Services
  • Directories
  • Publications
  • Indicators
  • Statistics
  • Topics
  • Data Services

Search the education counts website

Find pages with

Narrow results by:

Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool – 2020 results Publications

Publication Details

This publication presents an updated set of results from the Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool.

Author(s): Ministry of Education

Date Published: November 2020

Summary

The Ministry’s Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool (‘the Tool’) is constructed to forecast the number of teachers required by schools in the future, and to compare this with an estimate of how many teachers are projected to be employed by schools in the future.  This is the third annual release of teacher demand and supply projections using the Tool.

The Summary Report contains the results from the Tool. A Technical Appendix providing a more complete guide to the methodology applied within the Tool is available alongside this report.

Key Findings

  • Covid-19 has increased the complexity in modelling of the outlook for teacher demand and supply in New Zealand. These projections are underpinned by assumptions based on trend information for key inputs (such as student numbers and teacher retention rates) and explicit modelling of the anticipated impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on these inputs in future.
  • The demand for secondary teachers is projected to grow year-on-year out to 2025.  In contrast, the demand for primary teachers is projected to grow marginally in 2021, before dropping year-on-year in the longer term.
  • In both sectors, over the next few years we are anticipating even higher teacher retention, growth in Initial Teacher Education (ITE) graduate numbers due to increased enrolments, and – in particular in 2021 – a growth in the number of former teachers interested in returning to the workforce, partly driven by qualified teachers returning to live in New Zealand since the global outbreak of Covid-19.
  • For the secondary sector, we are projecting that supply will rise broadly in line with demand, leaving an estimated shortfall of 80 teachers in 2021, 30 teachers in 2022, and rising again to 100 teachers in 2023. We anticipate there will still be an ongoing need to grow the supply of secondary teachers to support schools in finding the teachers they need, especially in hard to staff subjects such as te reo Māori and STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), in certain parts of the country and in the Māori medium sector.
  • For the primary sector, the modelling provides confidence that demand will be met by the available supply in 2021 and out to 2023. However, beneath this national outlook, we anticipate there will still be an ongoing need to help primary schools find teachers in certain parts of the country and in the Māori medium sector.

Navigation

  • Schooling
  • Workforce
  • Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Projection

Downloads

  • Summary (PDF, 200.3 KB)
  • Summary (DOC, 191.4 KB)
  • Appendix (PDF, 239.6 KB)
  • Appendix (DOC, 102.2 KB)

Contact Us

Education Data Requests
If you have any questions about education data please contact us:
Email:   Requests EDK
Phone: +64 4 463 8065

Home Close Menu
  • Know your Region Show submenu
  • Communities of Learning Show submenu
  • Find your nearest school Show submenu
  • Early Learning Services Show submenu
  • Directories Show submenu
  • Publications Show submenu
    • Early Childhood EducationShow submenu
      • Responding to diverse cultures: Good practice in home-based early childhood servicesShow submenu
    • MāoriShow submenu
    • SchoolingShow submenu
    • PacificShow submenu
    • Tertiary EducationShow submenu
    • Learning SupportShow submenu
      • Learning Support Coordinators Evaluation: Phase 2Show submenu
    • InternationalShow submenu
    • Publication SeriesShow submenu
  • Indicators Show submenu
  • Statistics Show submenu
    • Annual Monitoring Reading RecoveryShow submenu
    • Attainment of 18-year-oldsShow submenu
    • AttendanceShow submenu
    • Attendance under COVID-19Show submenu
    • Beyond StudyShow submenu
    • Early Learning ParticipationShow submenu
    • ECE FinancesShow submenu
    • ECE ServicesShow submenu
    • ECE StaffingShow submenu
    • Early Leaving ExemptionsShow submenu
    • Entering & leaving teachingShow submenu
    • Fees Free tertiary educationShow submenu
    • Financial Support for Tertiary StudentsShow submenu
    • Funding to SchoolsShow submenu
    • HomeschoolingShow submenu
    • Initial Teacher Education StatisticsShow submenu
    • International students in NZShow submenu
    • Language use in ECEShow submenu
    • Literacy & NumeracyShow submenu
    • Māori Language in SchoolingShow submenu
    • NZ's Workplace-based LearnersShow submenu
    • Number of SchoolsShow submenu
    • Ongoing Resourcing SchemeShow submenu
    • Pacific Language in SchoolingShow submenu
    • Per Student Funding for SchoolsShow submenu
    • Post-compulsory education & trainingShow submenu
    • School BoardsShow submenu
    • School Board RepresentationShow submenu
    • School Leaver DestinationsShow submenu
    • School Leaver's AttainmentShow submenu
    • School RollsShow submenu
    • School Subject EnrolmentShow submenu
    • Stand-downs, suspensions, exclusions & expulsionsShow submenu
    • Teacher NumbersShow submenu
      • 2021Show submenu
      • 2020Show submenu
    • Teacher TurnoverShow submenu
    • Tertiary Financial PerformanceShow submenu
    • Tertiary ParticipationShow submenu
    • Tertiary Population DataShow submenu
    • Tertiary ResearchShow submenu
    • Tertiary ResourcingShow submenu
    • Tertiary Achievement & AttainmentShow submenu
    • Tertiary Summary TablesShow submenu
    • Total public expenditure on educationShow submenu
    • Transient StudentsShow submenu
    • Vocational Education & TrainingShow submenu
  • Topics Show submenu
  • Data Services Show submenu

Site information

  • Site map
  • Contact us
  • Feedback
  • About this site
  • Glossary
  • Accessibility
  • Copyright, Legal & Privacy
  • Links
  • © Education Counts 2022
  • Ministry of Education logo.
  • New Zealand Government logo.
Scroll to top of page