PLEASE NOTE

The 2023 Teacher Demand and Supply report contains an error. For the most update to information please refer to the 2024 report.

The error occurred when the Ministry did not include the ‘demand’ impact resulting from increases to classroom release time for teachers and additional allowances negotiated in the previous teacher Collective Agreement bargaining round.
Because the data was left out of the demand projection in 2023, the report under-estimated the number of teachers needed at a national level, particularly in primary. This has been corrected in the 2024 report.

Key findings

• The demand for both primary and secondary teachers is higher in the 2023 projection than was projected in 2022. The main reason for this is above-expected net migration population growth of school aged children. Net migration gains of 86,780 people in the year ending June 2023 included around 9,675 primary aged children and 7,543 secondary aged children.
  As a result, demand for primary teachers has increased by 490 to 1,420 between 2023 and 2028 compared to the 2022 projection, and secondary teacher demand has increased by 170 – 880 in the same period.

• The retention rate of primary and secondary teachers has returned to pre-COVID (2019) rates of 88-89%.

Primary

• The demand for primary teachers is projected to decrease steadily from 2023 to 2033 (36,416 teachers to 35,242 teachers). This trend is driven by the projected decline in primary student numbers, reflecting a decline in birth rates and as primary aged students move into secondary schooling.
• At a national level and across all three scenarios, the supply of primary teachers is projected to exceed demand from 2023 to 2026:
  • High Supply: Exceed demand by 919 teachers in 2024, increasing to 1,250 in 2025 and to 1,977 in 2026.
  • Medium Supply: Exceed demand by 792 teachers in 2024, increasing to 1,050 in 2025 and to 1,717 in 2026.
  • Low Supply: Exceed demand by 593 teachers in 2024, increasing to 717 in 2025 and to 1,217 in 2026.
• An extra 405 to 1,390 primary teachers are expected to be added to the current workforce as a result of our initiatives and investments. Without these initiatives and investments, supply would be significantly less, meaning a smaller pool for schools to recruit from and less ability to distribute teachers more equitably.

Secondary

The demand for secondary teachers is projected to grow steadily from 2023 to 2027 (28,080 teachers to 29,311 teachers), before declining steadily year-on-year to 2033 (28,357 teachers).

• At a national level, the supply of secondary teachers is projected to exceed demand under a high and medium supply scenario, and not meet demand under a low supply scenario:
  • High Supply: Exceed demand by 327 teachers in 2024, decreasing to 261 in 2025, then increasing to 350 in 2026.
  • Medium Supply: Exceed demand by 173 teachers in 2024, decreasing to 61 in 2025, then increasing to 124 in 2026.
  • Low Supply: Undersupply of 227 teachers in 2024, with the gap increasing to 546 in 2025 and to 679 in 2026.
• An extra 549 to 1,829 secondary teachers are expected to be added to the  workforce as a result of our initiatives and investments. Without these initiatives and investments, an undersupply of 444 teachers in 2024, increasing to 1098 in 2026, is projected.

Notes

• Regional data is being developed and is expected for 2024
• Subject data is being developed and is expected for 2025
• There are challenges at all levels in Kaupapa Māori/Māori Medium settings. However, specific areas of need cannot be definitively identified, due to current data limitations. We plan to improve this understanding in the future.