Summary

In simple terms, the tool calculates the number of teachers we expect to need in the future (demand) and compares this to the number of teachers we expect to have in the future (supply). It estimates these by looking at trends in our data – such as in the number of students in our schools and how many teachers are entering and exiting the workforce – and makes assumptions on how these trends will continue into the future.

Teacher demand and supply are both complex to predict. Demand for teachers is mainly driven by the number of teachers required to meet teacher-student staffing ratios, as well as individual employment decisions by schools to staff above these ratios. Likewise, supply is driven by a complex mix of economic conditions and individual employment decisions by current and prospective teachers. These factors are hard to predict with certainty, and this first version of the tool is a work in progress. It will continue to be improved over time, as we seek further feedback on its design and develop data sources which we could feed into it in future.

Initial Results

The initial results show that the supply of primary school teachers nationally will be 650 lower than the demand for primary teachers in 2019. This is equal to 1.9 per cent of demand not being met. For secondary school teachers, the supply will be 170 lower than the demand in 2019. This is equal to 0.6 per cent of demand not being met.

The projected level of supply in 2019 is sufficient to meet the projected demand for teachers from staffing entitlement (that is, to meet the required teacher-student ratios), but it is insufficient to meet the estimated level of demand for employing teachers above entitlement.

The initial results for the Auckland region show a similar pattern to the national picture.

Methodology

For a more detailed introduction to the Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool, a full technical report is available under the Downloads section.