How does achievement at school affect achievement in tertiary education? Publications

Publication Details

This report explores the relationship between academic achievement at secondary school and first-year achievement in tertiary education. The analysis uses a measure known as 'expected percentile' and school qualification to explain the performance of school leavers in their first year in tertiary education.

This report provides a complement to the report Post-school choices, which explores the link between school achievement and choices around participation in tertiary education.

Author(s): David Scott, Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis and Reporting, Ministry of Education.

Date Published: May 2008

Summary

The report explored the following questions:

  • How are the characteristics of performance in senior secondary National Qualifications Framework-based qualifications related to achievement in tertiary study?
  • How well does expected percentile predict achievement in tertiary study?
  • How much influence does school achievement have on tertiary achievement, compared with other school or tertiary study factors, or demographic characteristics?

Key findings:

The study found support for the relationship between school achievement, using expected percentile as the measurement for school achievement, and first-year tertiary achievement.

The relationship was strongest for those enrolling in degrees, and less so for those enrolling below degree level.

For school leavers enrolling in degrees, expected percentile explained a quarter of the likelihood of them passing all their first-year courses.

More significantly, the mean first-year course pass rate for school leavers enrolling in degrees can be determined almost entirely from expected percentile.

However, its influence on first-year attrition is much smaller, and is secondary to study load, and other factors untested in this study.

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