Summary

Recent Ministry of Education reports have shown that participation rates in tertiary education have increased significantly in the last decade, but these reports have taken a relatively short-term view of trends in participation. Given the significant changes in the tertiary education sector since the 1990s, it is of interest to compare participation rates over this period with earlier rates. This report looks at this by analysing the rate at which a range of birth cohorts participated in tertiary education over an extended period.

This report takes a long-term view of participation rates in tertiary education by looking at three birth cohorts; those born in 1949 who started entering tertiary education around 1965; those people born in 1962 who started entering tertiary education around 1978; and those people born in 1975 who started entering tertiary education in 1990. These birth cohorts represent three very different generations that have experienced different life influences.

In addition, this report takes a short-term view by looking at the participation trends of those people born in 1978, 1980, 1982 and 1984, using longitudinal enrolment data. It is a relatively short history but allows us to look closely at trends of specific sub-groups such as women and Māori. The longitudinal data also allows us to look at when and where people in each birth cohort make their first enrolment in tertiary education to give a sense of the pattern of accumulation of tertiary education in the birth cohorts. Such a view looks at how a population participates in tertiary education over time.

Some findings from the report are:

• The long-term view finds that a greater proportion of each successive birth cohort has participated in tertiary education. The rate of increase in participation rates quickened between the 1962 and 1975 birth cohorts.

• The short-term view finds that by the age of 20, over 60 percent of the birth cohorts had participated in tertiary education and around 75 percent had participated by the age of 23.
• By the age of 27, 55 percent of the 1978 birth cohort had participated in sub-degree study, compared with 30 percent in bachelors- degree study and 6 percent in postgraduate study.