Summary

In March 2004, the Ministry of Education published a report called 'Retention, completion and progression in tertiary education'.  That report provided new information on the rates at which tertiary students complete qualifications, and what percentage then move on to further study.

The report 'Retention, completion and progression in tertiary education' revealed some key findings:

• Of domestic students who started a qualification at a public provider in 1998, 40% had successfully completed it by 2002, and 51% had left without completing a qualification.
• 15% of students completing a qualification in 2001 went on to higher level study in 2002.
• Completion rates increased the higher the level studied.
• Asian students had the highest completion rates across all levels, although Māori completion rates were comparable below degree level.
• There were early indications that recent growth in wananga is producing positive benefits for Māori as measured by high rates of retention and progression.

'Pathways in Tertiary Education 1998-2002' provides more information from this study. In particular, it provides new information on the types of study paths taken over five years by those starting tertiary study for the first time in 1998.

Statistics on rates of retention, completion, progression and pathways have not previously been available in New Zealand and are important for a number of reasons. They provide indicators of the patterns of study in New Zealand's tertiary education system and of the rate at which the system produces qualifications. These statistics add to our understanding of the internal efficiency and quality of the tertiary education system.

In the wider context, students successfully compete courses¹ at a much higher rate than qualifications, and many leave study (in particular, in times of higher employment), with some courses left to complete for their qualification. Other students will enrol for a qualification, but abandon it once they have met their objectives, which may be passing only two or three courses. To that extent, if a high proportion of students do not complete their qualifications, this cannot necessarily be read as a system failure.

Much of the participation growth in New Zealand since the late 1980s has been in part-time study and part-time students inevitably take longer to complete. These studies don't take account of part-time study.

New Zealand's lifelong approach to tertiary learning, relatively open access to enrolment, and easy access to student loans, have tended to increase the number of students with a focus on part-time course-based study, and those trying to combine work with study. This is borne out in other countries, which have higher academic entry requirements, more full-time study, and less access to student support. Recent statistics in Britain show that the institutions with the highest drop-out rates were also the ones that generally excelled at attracting students from under-represented groups² That is, completion goals can not be viewed in isolation from access goals.

Fair international comparisons are problematic because of differences in measurement between countries. The broadest international comparative analysis is conducted by the OECD. Those comparisons show New Zealand to be above or near OECD averages in graduation rates. New Zealand's graduation rate of 40% compares with 42% in Australia, 37% in Britain, 30% for the OECD mean.³ The Retention, Completion and Progression report also showed that the estimated long-term completion rate for doctorates of around 56%-57% was comparable to estimates of doctoral completion rates in Australia. ⁴

Figure 1: Graduation rates for selected OECD countries 2001

The Retention, completion and progressionstudy also showed that rates of completion were relatively unchanged over the period of the study (1998 to 2002). While historical comparisons are difficult to find, we do know that around 1960, completion rates for degrees after four or five years were 40% (compared with 46% from this study).⁵

This follow-up report, Pathways in tertiary education 1998-2002, provides more information from this study. It focuses on the experiences of the group of 56,000 domestic students starting study at a public tertiary education institution for the first time in 1998.

At 43%, completion rates for this group appear to be slightly higher than the 40% rate reported in the Retention, Completion and Progression report (which included non-first-year qualification starters).

The experiences of students during their first year have been widely recognised as important to final outcomes. This report provides the first quantitative evidence of this across the sector. Nearly half of all attrition is in the first year and qualification completion rates rise significantly the longer studied. For example, between 70% and 80% of all degree students who studied for three or more years successfully completed their degree.

The report also provides new information on articulation, that is, the rate at which students progress onto higher level qualifications. An estimated 6% of 1998 starters gained higher level qualifications in addition to, or instead of, the one they started. This excludes those still studying towards additional qualifications.

The report provides analysis by a number of variables including sub-sector and level of study. The patterns of completion, attrition and articulation in this report follow patterns similar to those reported in the 'Retention, Completion and Progression' report. For instance, this new report shows that younger students do better than older students, both in terms of completion and articulation. This is shown in the table below.

Further breakdowns are provided in the report, which in addition includes new information on duration of study, transfers and switches and how many students take a break during their study.

Footnotes

1. A course in these reports is a component of a qualification. For example, a bachelors degree is one qualification, comprising a number of courses, modules or papers. A course is typically of one year duration or less and a student may take several courses in a year, whereas a qualification may span more than one year.
2. The Times Higher Education Supplement, No. 1,619, December 12, 2003.
3. OECD Tertiary Type A Graduation Rates. Type A study is academically or theoretically-based (ie non-vocational) study at ISCED level 5, and includes study at diploma, degree and postgraduate (excluding doctorate) levels.
4. Martin, Y.M., Maclachlan M. & Karmel, T. (2001) Postgraduate Completion Rates. 2001D, Occasional Paper Series, Department of Education, Science and Training
5. Partin, H. (1979) The University of New Zealand. page 223.