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Latest New Zealand tertiary education and industry training demand forecasts Publications

Publication Details

The New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast report presents the methodology used by the Ministry of Education to forecast the demand for provider-based tertiary education at Levels 3 and above on the New Zealand Qualifications Framework. It also includes the most recent forecast, and historical forecasts back to 2016.

The report on the accuracy of the provider-based tertiary demand methodology compares the forecasts with actual tertiary enrolments. An accompanying spreadsheet shows the data and calculations used in the accuracy report.

The Ministry has not produced a forecast for industry training this year. Policy initiatives to increase apprenticeships means the demand for industry training during the COVID19 pandemic will primarily be driven by government funding. The last industry training forecast was done in 2019.

Author(s): Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis, Ministry of Education.

Date Published: May 2022

Current Reports File Type & Size

  • New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast 2022 [PDF 499.7kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2021 [PDF 336.9kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2021 data and calculations [MS Excel 18.5kB]

Historic Reports

  • New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast 2021 [PDF 487kB]
  • New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast 2020 [PDF 239.3kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2020 [PDF 415kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2020 data and calculations [MS Excel 17.2kB]
  • New Zealand industry training demand forecast 2019 [PDF 373.6kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2019 [PDF146.9kB]
  • Accuracy of the NZ tertiary education demand forecasts 2015-2019 data and calculations [MS Excel 15.7kB]
  • New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast 2018 [PDF 409.1kB]
  • New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast 2017 [PDF 377.7kB]

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