Publication Details

The New Zealand tertiary education demand forecast report presents the methodology used by the Ministry of Education in forecasting the demand for provider-based tertiary education at Levels 3 and above on the New Zealand Qualifications Framework. It also includes tables summarising the most recent (2021) and past (2016-2020) forecasts.

The report on the accuracy of the provider-based demand forecasts compares the forecasts of the 2015 to 2020 budget and economic forecast update rounds with actual tertiary enrolments over those years. An accompanying spreadsheet provides the data and calculations used in the accuracy report.

The Ministry has not produced a forecast for industry training this year. Policy initiatives to increase apprenticeships means the demand for industry training during the COVID19 pandemic will primarily be driven by government funding. The last industry training forecast was done in 2019.

Author(s): Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis, Ministry of Education.

Date Published: May 2021