Some Key Findings

• More people are gaining secondary and tertiary qualifications. The percentage of New Zealanders aged 15 and over with no qualification has fallen from 55 percent in 1981 to 28 percent in 2001, and those with a degree has tripled from 4 percent to 12 percent over the same 20 year period.
• These increases are across all ethnic groups. Inequalities between ethnic groups have reduced significantly over the last 20 years, but still persist. New Zealand Europeans were two and a half times more likely to have a degree than Māori, and three times more likely than Pasifika people.
• The gap in the qualification levels of men and women has narrowed, and in some age groups, reversed. For New Zealanders aged 35 and over, more men hold degrees than women, while the reverse is true for ages under 35. In fact, in the future there will be significantly more women holding degree-level qualifications than men, if the proportion of women with a degree keeps increasing at the same rate.
• The proportion of New Zealanders born overseas has increased. These migrants have increasingly higher skill levels. The proportion of degree qualifications held by overseas born and educated New Zealanders has increased from 14 percent in 1981 to 22 percent in 2001.
• Migration data over time show net losses of degree-holding New Zealanders aged under 30 years as they leave New Zealand to go overseas, but net gains in adults aged over 30 as they return. The reports estimates that this outflow of qualified New Zealanders is currently higher than the level of New Zealanders returning in subsequent years.
• A standard international approach to "human educational capital" measurement relates to the number of human resources in science and technology. More people are gaining qualifications in science and technology-related fields. People employed in science and technology occupations now make up a greater proportion of the New Zealand labour force. In New Zealand , the numbers of people with a degree and working in science in technology-related fields increased from 3.8 percent of the working population in 1981 to 9.5 percent in 2001.

Qualifications

The number of people gaining some form of school or tertiary qualification is increasing. The proportion of people aged 15 years old and over with no qualification halved between 1981 and 2001, while the number of people with a university degree increased from 5 percent to 12 percent.

Degree and higher degree qualifications

The number of people with degree and postgraduate qualifications has increased, and most of these increases have occurred since 1991.

Between 1981 and 2001, the proportion of people aged 15 years and over with a bachelors degree has nearly tripled, increasing from nearly 3 percent to 8 percent. The largest increase was between 1991 and 1996 when the proportion increased from 4 percent to 6 percent.

The proportion of people aged 15 years and over with a higher degree (that is, a postgraduate) qualification also increased between 1981 and 2001. The rate has almost doubled, increasing from an estimated 2 percent in 1981 to nearly 4 percent in 2001. As with bachelors degrees, most of this increase has occurred since 1991.

Other qualifications

The proportion of people with a non-degree tertiary qualification as their highest educational qualification has increased from 16 percent in 1981 to 20.5 percent in 2001.

More people are achieving higher secondary school qualifications. The proportion of people aged over 15 years who achieved sixth form certificate, or a higher secondary qualification, increased from 12 percent in 1981 to nearly 18 percent in 2001.These increases in qualification attainment have been matched by a corresponding decrease in the proportion of people with no qualifications. Fifty-five percent of the population aged over 15 years in 1981 had no educational qualification compared with nearly 30 percent in 2001.

Trends in highest education qualification by ethnic group

Although there have been increases in the proportion of people gaining tertiary qualifications across all ethnic groups, there are still large gaps remaining between ethnic groups.

In 1981 New Zealand Europeans were six times more likely to have a degree than Māori and six and a half times more likely to have a degree than Pasifika people. By 2001, this gap had decreased. New Zealand European were two and a half times more likely to have a degree than Māori and three times more likely to have a degree than Pasifika people.

Trends in highest education qualification by gender

Historically, more men gained higher education qualifications than women. However, since the 1990s, more women have gained higher education qualifications than men. The effect of this change is that the gap between men and women’s attainment of tertiary qualifications has narrowed at ages 35 and over, for ages under 35, more women .than men hold a degree. Newell and Perry predict that if this trend continues, the proportion of women with a degree-level qualification will greatly surpass that of men.

Figure 1: Percent of New Zealand residents aged 15 years or older with a degree by gender: 1981 to 2001

Source: MERA Custom analysis , Census of Population and Dwellings

Figure 2: Percent of New Zealand residents aged 15 years or older at non-degree post-secondary qualification level by gender: 1981, 1996, and 2001

Source: MERA Custom analysis , Census of Population and Dwellings

Figure 3: Percent of the 2001 usually resident New Zealand population with a degree by gender and age group

Source: MERA Custom analysis , Census of Population and Dwellings

Trends in field of study

There have been significant changes in subjects studied at tertiary level. There have been increases the proportion of people with management and commerce qualifications, and decreases in those with society and culture-related qualifications.

Figure 4: Field of study of the usually resident population aged 15 and over with bachelors or higher qualifications 1981, 1996, and 2001

Source: MERA Custom analysis , Census of Population and Dwellings

Migration inflows and outflows

New Zealand is becoming increasingly culturally and ethnically diverse. This is reflected in the fact that the proportion of people born overseas has been steadily increasing since 1981. Increasingly, the migrant population is becoming more highly skilled. Between 1986 and 1996, there was a 5.6 percentage point increase (from 25.6 percent to 31.2 percent) in the proportion of New Zealanders with a degree-level qualification born overseas . For this same period, the proportion of New Zealand residents aged over 15 years (born overseas or in New Zealand ) with a degree only increased by 2 percentage points from 18 percent in 1986 to 20 percent in 1996. This inflow of highly skilled migrants saw the largest increases in people with information technology and engineering-related qualifications.

Census data shows large outward migration flows of young adults aged around 25 years (probably setting off on their overseas experience). The largest net losses were seen between 1996 and 2001. There is a peak in inward migration in the 30 to 31 years age group, which probably mostly represents the return of New Zealanders from their overseas experience.

Figure 5: Estimated intercensal net international migration by age group: 1981 to 2001

Source: MERA Custom analysis , Census of Population and Dwellings

Newell and Perry also use permanent long term (PLT) residence arrival and departure statistics to examine migration effects. In general, the estimates of migration inflow and outflow from the Census and PLT data show similar results.

Figure 6: Permanent long term residential migration flows by citizenship for intercensal periods: 1978 to 2005

Source: Statistics New Zealand , Arrival and Departure data, Permanent or Long Term Residential Migrants

Between 1991 and 1996 and between 2001 and 2005, immigrants exceeded emigration. However, in each intercensal period, the number of New Zealand citizens leaving on a permanent or long-term basis exceeded those returning to the country to live.