Introduction

This report attempts to identify the most likely prospects for increasing international student enrolments in New Zealand, based on a concise and consistent methodology for assessing potential demand from source countries. The collated comparisons are intended to assist future planning for promotional campaigns.

The data used for each country is from multinational agencies (including the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), on the following indicators of demand for international education.

The level of enrolments of international students from each country in New Zealand, and the available and relevant comparative figures for Australia the past level of enrolments in tertiary education programmes in each country relative performance in the PISA 2009 study administered by the OECD the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in each population, and projections for growth the current proportion and projection of 15-24 year olds, relative to the total population, and estimates for change to 2025 (using the „medium variant‟ of population projections).

While these measures can help to guide estimates for the potential for growth in student enrolments from developing nations, they are less useful in terms of projecting possible interest from developed countries. The factors of demand which influence students from these markets are reported to be New Zealand‟s attributes of quality and cost-effective English language education, safety, and lifestyle experiences. A key research source for this view is the "International Student Barometer" prepared by the International Graduate Insight Group. The Ministry of Education has also undertaken extensive surveys of international students in 2003 and 2007, and the findings of these studies are readily available through the Ministry's website www.minedu.govt.nz/international.

New Zealand education provision is also less costly, when compared to the other „main English speaking destination countries‟ of Australia, the United Kingdom, the USA, and Canada. This was a key finding of research undertaken by Deloitte New Zealand in 2007 and updated in 2009.