School leavers with NCEA Level 2 or above
What We Have Found
In 2018, seventy-nine percent of school leavers achieved NCEA Level 2 or above.
Updated: September 2019
Percentage of school leavers with at least an NCEA Level 2 or equivalent qualification.
Why This Is Important
A formal school qualification is a measure of the extent to which young adults have completed a basic prerequisite for higher education and training and many entry-level jobs.
The main qualiﬁcation available to secondary school students is the NCEA, which encompasses a wide range of learning. NCEA enables students to undertake multilevel study to attain credits, perhaps at different levels in any one year, towards an NCEA qualiﬁcation. Students can attain credits through internal and external assessment, and they can accumulate these credits both within and across years. Future educational and job prospects will be limited for those who leave school without Level 2 NCEA.
The recent research done by Scott (2018) found that NCEA Level 2 leavers are slightly more likely to go direct to work than their Level 3 peers who are slightly more likely to enrol in a tertiary institution. The group with NCEA 2 has more accumulated earnings in the 7 years since leaving school than the UE group. While there is not much difference between earnings for NCEA Level 2 and Level 3 groups, those with NCEA Level 1 school achievement have earned 15% less than NCEA Level 2 peers, and those with no achievement are earning 51% less. (Scott, 2018)
How We Are Going
In 2018, 79.4% of all school leavers attained at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent, a 1.7 percentage point decrease since 2017. Since 2009, there has been an 11.9 percentage point increase with respect to those who attain at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent, with 79.4% in 2018 compared to 67.5% in 2009.
Female school leavers were more likely to attain at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent than their male counterparts in 2018.
When looking at ethnicity, in 2018, Asian students had the highest proportion of school leavers attaining at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent, followed by European/Pākehā. Pacific and Māori were found to have lower rates of attainment.
Figure 1: Percentage of total school leavers with at least an NCEA Level 2 qualification or equivalent (2009 to 2018)
Total response ethnicity collection involves counting people who identify with more than one ethnic group in each of these ethnic groups. For the New Zealand total, individuals are counted only once. In 2018, the proportion of Asian school leavers attaining at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent was 90.6%, which was 8.2 percentage points higher than European/Pākehā (82.4%). Pacific was 74.6% and Māori was 65.8%.
From 2009-2018, the largest percentage point increase in those attaining at least NCEA Level 2 or equivalent has been in Māori school leavers, with an increase of 20.1 percentage points between 2009 (45.7%) and 2018 (65.8%), and Pacific school leavers, with an increase of 18.2 percentage points between 2009 (56.4%) and 2018 (74.6%). This can be compared to the European/Pākehā school leavers, who had a 9.6 percentage point increase between 2009 (72.8%) and 2018 (82.4%), and Asian school leavers, who had a 7.8 percentage point increase between 2009 (82.9%) and 2018 (90.6%). These changes indicate that the disparities between ethnic groups have reduced over time but a large achievement gap remains for Māori and Pacific students.
2018 has seen an overall decrease in the proportion of leavers of all ethnicities achieving a minimum of NCEA Level 2 or equivalent. For Māori this decrease was 2.6 percentage points, European/Pākehā had 1.8 percentage point decrease, Pacific had 1.6 percentage point decrease, and the decrease Asian was1.3 percentage point decrease.
Figure 2: Percentage of school leavers with at least an NCEA Level 2 qualification or equivalent, by ethnic group (2009 to 2018)
From 2009 to 2018 there has been a consistent pattern of female school leavers attaining NCEA Level 2 or equivalent at higher rates than male school leavers. In 2018, 82.3% of females achieved compared to 76.7 % of males. The size of the gender gap has decreased from 8.3 percentage points in 2009 to 5.6 percentage points in 2018.
From 2017 to 2018, male achievement decreased by 1.9 percentage points and female achievement decreased by 1.4 percentage points. This increased the gender disparity by 0.5 percentage points over the same period.
Figure 3: Percentage of school leavers with at least an NCEA Level 2 qualification or equivalent, by gender (2009-2018)
A clear positive correlation can be seen between the socio-economic mix of the school the student attended and the percentage of school leavers attaining at least an NCEA Level 2 or equivalent qualification. Schools in the lowest deciles (deciles 1 and 2) draw their students from communities with the highest degree of socio-economic disadvantage.
In 2018, 91.5% of students from schools in the highest deciles (deciles 9 and 10) left school with at least an NCEA Level 2 qualification. This was 25.0 percentage points higher than the percentage for school leavers in deciles 1 and 2 (66.5%).
There is, however, a great deal of variation amongst schools within each decile, with some schools in the lowest deciles with a greater proportion of students achieving a level 2 qualification or above than some schools in the highest deciles.
Figure 4: Percentage of school leavers with at least an NCEA Level 2 or equivalent, by school decile (2018)
Evidence about what works for this indicator can be found in:
- Alton-Lee, A. (2003). Quality Teaching for Diverse Students in Schooling: Best Evidence Synthesis. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
- Anthony, G., and Walshaw, M. (2007). Effective Pedagogy in Mathematics/Pāngarau: Best Evidence Synthesis Iteration. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
- David Scott. (2018). Post-school labour-market outcomes of school-based NCEA. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
The Ministry of Education has established an Iterative Best Evidence Synthesis Programme to systematically identify, evaluate, analyse, synthesise and make accessible, relevant evidence linked to a range of learner outcomes. Please visit BES (Iterative Best Evidence Synthesis) Programme to find out more.
Where To Find Out More
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