What We Have Found

International testing shows a significant improvement in New Zealand Year 5 students' mathematics performance over the period 1994 to 2014, but there has not been a significant change in their performance since 2002/03; the overall mean mathematics achievement of New Zealand Year 5 students in 2014 is not significantly different from 2002, 2006, and 2011.

Date Updated: August 2017

Indicator Description

This mathematics indicator draws on the following sources of information:

An overview of selected findings from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2014/2015 (TIMSS 2014/2015) is also included. The TIMSS assessments included questions on whole numbers, decimals and common fractions, two- and three- dimensional shapes, estimation, data representation, and patterns and relationships.

Why This Data is Important

In 2017, the Government set a target of 80% of Year 8 students will be achieving at or above the National Standard in mathematics, or at Manawa Ora or Manawa Toa in Ngā Whanaketanga Rumaki Māori pāngarau.

Building a strong foundation in mathematics at a primary school level is important because it provides children with the basis to better understand and acquire new and advanced knowledge in mathematics as they continue in schooling. For children, having a solid foundation in mathematics will also play a major role in their day-to-day lives. It helps children to understand use of time and money, being fair to others, recognising and generalising from symbols and patterns, interpreting information, thinking systematically, making things, and solving problems.

A healthy knowledge of mathematics and pāngarau will mean that children and young people will have more opportunities to progress in their learning and more choices in their transition into further education, training and employment.

Progress against Target

The Government has set a target of 80% of Year 8 students will be achieving at or above the National Standard in mathematics, or at Manawa Ora or Manawa Toa in Ngā Whanaketanga Rumaki Māori pāngarau.

In 2016, 70.6% of students at the end of year 8 were achieving at or above the National Standard in mathematics, or at Manawa Ora or Manawa Toa in Ngā Whanaketanga Rumaki Māori pāngarau. This is an increase of 3.8 percentage points since 2012. Limited progress is being made towards this target, but faster improvement is required to reach it by the end of 2021.

Figure 1: Proportion of students achieving 'At' / 'Above' or 'Manawa Ora' / 'Manawa Toa' in Mathematics/Pāngarau

International Comparison

In addition to using National Standards and Ngā Whanaketanga Rumaki Māori to examine mathematics achievement trends within New Zealand, the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) results are used to examine primary-aged students' (Year 5 students in New Zealand) mathematics performance in relation to other nations and education systems. TIMSS has been conducted every 4 years since 1994. The tests are run at the end of the school year. The sixth cycle of TIMSS was conducted in 2014 in Southern Hemisphere countries and in 2015 in Northern Hemisphere countries. Hence it is referred to as TIMSS 2014/15 in New Zealand. New Zealand is one of 49 countries that took part in this cycle.

How We Are Going

New Zealand Year 5 students' mean performance in mathematics was significantly higher than 13 of the countries that also tested at Year 5 level in TIMSS 2014/15 but was significantly lower than 33 countries including Singapore, England, the United States, and Australia. New Zealand's mean mathematics achievement was not significantly different from that of students in two other countries: France and Turkey. New Zealand had the second lowest mean score of all English speaking nations tested after South Africa.

The table below presents New Zealand's relative ranking in mathematics achievement compared with the other countries who have participated in TIMSS in 1994/95, 2002/03, 2014/15. Of all the 49 countries that participated in TIMSS 2014/15 at the middle primary level, only 13 have participated in all these three cycles.

The mean mathematics achievement in New Zealand has been below the mean for the 13 trend countries in each cycle. In addition, while the mean for New Zealand has increased compared with 1994/95, so has the mean for all 13 countries. Therefore the ranking of New Zealand among these 13 countries is at its lowest in 2014/15 compared to the previous cycles. Note that relative rankings do not demonstrate significant differences between countries. Standard errors are provided so that significance between two countries can be calculated if desired.

Table 1: Relative rankings of selected countries participating in 3 cycles of TIMSS

Notes: means the country mean score was significantly higher than the mean for all 12 countries. means the country mean score was signficantly lower than the mean for all 12 countries. The mean for all 13 countries has been calculated by pooling all student results for the 13 countries and weighting so that each country contributes equally to the mean. Standard errors are in parentheses.
Mean Mathematics Score
1994/95				2002/03				2014/15
Singapore	590	(4.5)		Singapore	594	(5.6)		Singapore	618	(3.8)
Japan	567	(1.9)		Hong Kong SAR	575	(3.1)		Hong Kong SAR	615	(2.9)
Hong Kong SAR	557	(4.0)		Japan	565	(1.6)		Japan	593	(2.0)
Netherlands	549	(3.0)		Netherlands	540	(2.2)		England	546	(2.8)
Hungary	521	(3.5)		England	531	(3.7)		USA	539	(2.3)
USA	518	(2.9)		Hungary	529	(3.2)		Netherlands	530	(1.7)
Australia	495	(3.5)		USA	518	(2.4)		Hungary	529	(3.2)
England	484	(3.3)		Cyprus	510	(2.4)		Cyprus	523	(2.7)
Norway	476	(3.0)		Australia	499	(3.9)		Slovenia	520	(1.9)
Cyprus	475	(3.2)		New Zealand	496	(2.2)		Australia	517	(3.1)
New Zealand	469	(4.4)		Slovenia	479	(2.5)		Norway	493	(2.3)
Slovenia	462	(3.2)		Norway	451	(2.2)		New Zealand	491	(2.3)
Iran, Islamic Rep. Of	387	(4.9)		Iran, Islamic Rep. Of	389	(4.2)		Iran, Islamic Rep. Of	431	(3.2)
Mean for all 13	504			Mean for all 13	514			Mean for all 13	534

There has been a significant improvement in New Zealand Year 5 students' mathematics performance in TIMSS over the period 1994 to 2014, but there has not been a significant change in their performance since 2002/03. The overall mean mathematics score for New Zealand Year 5 students in 2014 was 491, up from 469 in 1994 and not significantly different from 496 in 2002. These mean mathematics scores are significantly lower than the TIMSS Scale Centre point (500). The spread of scores, from the 5th to the 95th percentiles, reduced between 1994 and 2014, however has been widest since 2002. Most of the reduction results from an improvement in the scores of the lowest performing students, with the 5th percentile increasing from 297 in 1994 to 335 in 2014.

There are four points on the TIMSS mathematics scale which make up international mathematics benchmarks; the advanced benchmark (625), the high benchmark (550), the intermediate benchmark (475), and the low benchmark (400). The performance of students reaching each benchmark is described in relation to the types of questions they answered correctly. Six percent of New Zealand Year 5 students reached the advanced benchmark in 2014, while sixteen percent did not reach the lowest TIMSS benchmark. In terms of the benchmark definitions, these were students who did not demonstrate some basic mathematical knowledge.

Figure 2: Percentage of New Zealand Year 5 students reaching the international TIMSS mathematics benchmarks (1994 to 2014)

Notes:

1. Standard errors are presented in parentheses.
2. At or above" means that the proportion of students at the benchmark includes those that achieved at higher benchmarks also.
3. Data for the small proportion of students assessed in Māori in 2002 (~2%) are excluded from this table to ensure comparability with data reported for 1994, 1998, 2006, 2011 and 2014.

The proportions of students reaching the high and advanced benchmarks significantly increased from 23% and 4% respectively in 2011 to 26% and 6% respectively in 2014. Due to these increases, the proportions of students reaching each benchmark in 2014 were similar to those in 2002. Note that the proportion shown for the low benchmark also includes students who performed at the advanced, high, and intermediate benchmarks. This is because, by definition, students who could do the more complex questions associated with, for example, the high benchmark, would also be able to complete the easier questions associated with the intermediate and low benchmarks.