Youth Training - Statistical Profile 1999 to 2008

8. Placement Outcomes

8.1 Placement outcomes

This section shows the distribution of placement outcomes by five main variables: ethnic group, gender, age, eligibility criteria and by provider type. A number of other variables could be used in an analysis of this sort, but are omitted on this occasion due to space considerations.

Training providers are required to track the activity of learners two months after they leave Youth Training. They report these ‘outcomes’²⁵ to the TEC, who attribute them to Youth Opportunities activity. The TEC reports the proportions of learners who are active in employment (full-time or part-time) or engaged in ‘further progressive training’ as positive outcomes attributable to the Youth Training intervention. Unemployment, or ‘out of the labour force’ status is recorded as a ‘negative’ outcome.

Youth Training outcomes are collated at two different levels:

• Leaving placements – where the proportion of positive and negative outcomes are derived from all placement outcomes
  
• Leaving the programme – where further progressive training outcomes which show a return into Youth Training are excluded from the calculation.

The latter are used to report against targets set in the TEC’s output agreements with the Minister of Tertiary Education. In a statistical study such as this it is interesting to examine both measures. However the majority of analysis focuses on leaving placement outcomes.

Table 38 shows the mixture of destinations for learners two months after leaving Youth Training placements across the 1999 to 2008 period. For around 30 percent of placement exits, learners are employed full-time two months after leaving the programme; approximately 33 percent have returned to Youth Training and around 16 percent are engaged in further training elsewhere. Around 20 percent are recorded as ‘unemployed’ or ‘out of the labour force’ ( referred to as other).

All outcomes, barring others, are deemed ‘positive’, reflecting that TEC consider that for learners to be engaged in these activities two months after leaving Youth Training is a preferable outcome.

The proportion of outcomes regarded as positive has increased from 76 percent in 1999 to 84 percent in 2008 and correspondingly, the proportion of learners who are unemployed or out of the labour force declined from 24 percent for learners leaving placements in 1999 to 17 percent for learners leaving placements in 2008.

There has been a substantial drop in the proportion of learners gaining full-time employment after leaving placements in 2008. This may be a consequence of the poorer labour market conditions experienced in the lead-in to the current economic downturn. A slightly higher proportion of learners returned to Youth Training after leaving placements in 2008 than in previous years, while the proportion of learners going into further progressive training elsewhere also increased.

8.2 Placement outcomes by ethnic group

Figure 5 shows the mixture of positive destinations by ethnic group by placement exit year. Māori learners are the least likely to leave Youth Training with a positive outcome while European learners are consistently the most likely to. The proportion of positive outcomes dropped slightly in 2008 after a plateau between 2006 and 2007, with the exception of for ‘other’ learners.

Figure 5  –  Positive placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 6 shows the proportion of placement exits recorded as full-time employment destinations by ethnic group. European learners are consistently the most likely to be working full-time within two months of leaving a Youth Training placement, while Pasifika learners are consistently the least likely to be. The drop in employment outcomes for 2008 affected all groups, but seems less dramatic for other learners, which includes Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American, African and ethnic group not specified learners.

Figure 6  –  Full-time employment placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 7 shows the mixture of part-time employment destinations by ethnic group. European learners are consistently the most likely to be working part-time within two months of leaving a Youth Training placement, while Pasifika learners are consistently the least likely to be. Māori learners are generally less likely than European learners to be employed part-time directly after leaving Youth Training.²⁷

Figure 7 – Part-time employment placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 8 shows the proportion of learners returning to Youth Training within two months of leaving a programme. Pasifika learners are consistently the most likely to return to Youth Training, while European learners are consistently the least likely to.

Figure 8 – Youth Training placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 9 shows the proportion of learners going on to further training outside of Youth Training within two months of leaving a programme. Other learners are consistently the most likely to do so while European learners are consistently the least likely to. The majority of these are engaged in full-time polytechnic training while around four percent go to Training Opportunities programmes.

Figure 9 – Further progressive training elsewhere placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 10 shows the proportion of learners going in to the Training Opportunities programme within two months of leaving a Youth Training programme. According to these data, the proportion going into Training Opportunities directly from Youth Training has declined to under two percent in 2008, down from 8 percent in 1999. Other learners are consistently the most likely to do so (but are now the least likely to) while Pasifika learners seem consistently the least likely to.

Figure 10 – Further progressive training elsewhere - Training Opportunities placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 11 shows the proportion of learners going in to full-time polytechnic training and other full-time training within two months of leaving a programme has increased to 16 percent in 2008 from 9 percent in 1999. Other learners are consistently the most likely to do so. Pasifika and Māori learners are consistently more likely to than European participants, who are generally the least likely to.

Figure 11 – Further progressive training elsewhere - polytechnic training or other full-time training placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 12 shows the proportion of learners who are reported as unemployed within two months of leaving a programme. Māori learners are consistently more likely to be unemployed than all other learners, and while the overall trend is a decline in the proportion who are unemployed, it has risen slightly in 2008 to now account for 13 percent of all placement exits.

Figure 12 – Unemployed placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 13 shows the proportion of learners who are reported as out of the labour force within two months of leaving a programme. Pasifika and Māori learners are consistently more likely to be out of the labour force than all other learners and European participants are far less likely to be economically inactive than them overall, however, the gap between them has narrowed in recent years.

Figure 13 – Out of the labour force placement outcomes by ethnic group 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

8.3 Placement outcomes by gender

Table 39 shows the outcome destinations of males and females across the 1999 to 2008 period. Males are consistently more likely than females to attain a positive outcome. They are much more likely to attain a full-time employment outcome and are less likely to attain unemployed / out of the labour force status on exit from Youth Training.

Females are more likely to attain part-time employment than males, and also to go directly to other full-time training. The proportion of males and females returning to Youth Training are consistently, fairly even.

8.4 Placement outcomes by age

Figure 14 shows  the full-time employment destinations by age at leaving each placement. In general, the younger the learner at exit, the lower the likelihood that they will be in full-time employment two months after leaving a Youth Training programme. The proportion of learners engaged in full-time employment within two months declined for all groups in 2008 except for those aged under 15 years.

Figure 14 –Full-time employment placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 15 shows  the part-time employment destinations by age at leaving placement. The proportion of learners gaining part-time employment is on the whole increasing slowly and there does not seem to be much difference between the age groups in 2008 (with the exception of under 15 years olds).²⁸

Figure 15 – Part-time employment placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 16 shows the proportion of leavers who return to Youth Training within two months. In general, the younger learners are when they leave placements, the more likely they are to go directly into another placement.

Figure 16 – Youth Training placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 17 shows the proportion of leavers who return to go to further progressive training outside Youth Training within two months. In general, older learners are more likely to transition into training outside the programme than the younger learners. Eighteen and 19 year olds and over seem significantly more likely to do so than the younger aged learners. The proportion of 19 years or older learners transitioning to further training within two months has steadily declined across 1999 to 2008. The data shows a steep fall in the proportion of under 15 year olds transitioning to further training between 2007 and 2008.

Figure 17 – Further progressive training placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission. 

Figure 18 shows the proportion of leavers who go directly into the Training Opportunities programme within two months of leaving a Youth Training placement. In general, older learners are more likely to transition into Training Opportunities than younger learners. This is likely to be a targeting issue: older learners are more likely to meet the criteria for the programme than younger ones. The proportion transitioning to Training Opportunities has declined between 1999 and 2008.

Figure 18 – Further progressive training elsewhere - Training Opportunities placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 19 shows the proportion of leavers who go directly into the other full-time training at a polytechnic or elsewhere within two months.  There is a uniformly slow but steady increase in proportions going directly to this type of training across all age groups between 1999 and 2008. A surge in the proportion under 15 year olds in 2007 is followed by a steep decline in this group for 2008, the reasons for which are not entirely clear.

Figure 19 – Further progressive training elsewhere- polytechnic training or other full-time training placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 20 shows the proportion of leavers who are unemployed within two months of leaving a placement.  Most obvious is the large increase in the proportion of under 15 year olds who are unemployed after leaving a placement between 2007 and 2008. In 1999 there is reasonable uniformity between the groups but more diversity is evident in 2008. The oldest learners are now the least likely to be unemployed, but in 1999 they were the most likely to be.

Figure 20 – Unemployed placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 21 shows the proportion of leavers who are out of the labour force  within two months of leaving a placement.  The proportion of under 15 year olds considered economically inactive declined to zero in 2006 and has not changed since.

Figure 21 – Out of the labour force placement outcomes by age 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

8.5 Placement outcomes by eligibility

Table 40 shows the proportion of placement outcomes deemed positive for each eligibility category. In general, school leavers aged 18 years or more and the foundation skills category of learners tend to have higher proportions of learners with positive outcomes than from the largest category, the low qualified 16 and 17 year olds.

Table 41 shows the proportion of full-time employment placement outcomes for each eligibility category. The largest group of learners, the low qualified 16 and 17 year olds, tend to have lower proportions of learners going on to full-time employment two months after Youth Training than other groups. The foundation skills and return to youth training eligible learners are generally more likely than other learners to attain a full-time employment outcome. The proportion of return to youth training learners gaining full-time employment outcomes dropped by seven percentage points in 2008, as did low qualified 16/17 year old outcomes.

Table 42 shows the proportion of part-time employment placement outcomes for each eligibility category. The proportion of learners gaining part-time employment increased slightly across most groups in 2008.

Table 43 shows the proportion of learners who return to Youth Training placement outcomes for each eligibility category. Around a third of learners in the Return to Youth Training  eligibility category go on to return after their placement, implying that around a third of learners at any one time are in their third placement. Low qualified 16 and 17 year olds seem the most increasingly likely to return to the programme across 1999 to 2008 reflecting the relatively low proportion of this group who move into employment or further training. The proportions of most groups returning to Youth Training increased between 2007 and 2008 perhaps due to a weakening of employment options.

Table 44 shows the proportion of learners who go on to further progressive training within two months for each eligibility category. School leavers 18 years old (or over) are the most consistently likely to be engaged in polytechnic or other type full-time training within two months of leaving Youth Training.²⁹

Table 45 shows the proportion of learners in the Other category within two months of leaving Youth Training for each eligibility category. This category consists of unemployed, out of the labour force and community work sub categories. YNYOUTH learners, that is those without low qualifications, under 18 years of age who have been unemployed for 13 weeks or more (YNYOUTH) are most likely of all categories to attain this outcome. Most categories have declined in respect to proportion gaining this outcome between 1999 and 2008, as the general level of labour market participation increased. However Workbridge clients have increased their proportion of Other outcomes.

8.6 Placement outcomes by provider type

Placement outcomes also differ depending on the type of organisation providing Youth Training. Figure 22 shows the proportion of placement outcomes deemed positive for each provider type. In general, learners placed in private training establishments and other provider types are observed to attain the highest proportion of positive outcomes. Learners placed with employers vary considerably across the years (as is often observed for categories with small numbers of learners). Learners placed with polytechnics / institutes of technology (only 1.9 percent of learners in 2008 – see table 24) are the least likely to attain a positive outcome over 1999 to 2008.

Figure 22 – Positive placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 23 shows the proportion of full-time employment placement outcomes for each provider type. As might be expected, in general learners placed with employers are the most likely to attain a full-time employment outcome (but there is high variability due to low numbers). A general decline between 2007 and 2008 is evident for all groups after what seems a period of slow increase. This again may be the early effects of the present economic downturn manifesting itself among young people with low or no skills and poor previous employment histories.

Figure 23 – Full-time employment placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 24 shows the proportion of part-time employment placement outcomes for each provider type. Learners placed in other organisations (consisting of all provider types not separately plotted) are most likely to be engaged in part-time employment two months after leaving a Youth Training placement. There is a general upwards trend across most provider types, and only learners leaving programmes in polytechnics/ITPs and employers seem to have shown decline between 2007 and 2008.

Figure 24 – Part-time employment placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 25 shows the proportion of placement outcomes for each provider type resulting in a direct return to Youth Training. In general, learners placed with charitable trusts, private training establishments and other provider types are more likely than those placed with employers to return directly to Youth Training. Learners with most provider types increased proportionally in this category between 2007 and 2008, perhaps driven by a declining labour market as the first effects of the economic downturn begin to be felt.

Figure 25 – Return to Youth Training employment placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 26 shows the proportion of further progressive training outside Youth Training placement outcomes for each provider type. In general, learners placed with polytechnics and institutes of technology are less likely than the other types to go on to further progressive training outside the programme. This finding is interesting given the location of most further progressive training programme destinations.

Figure 26 – Further progressive training placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Figure 27 shows the proportion of other (including unemployed, out of the labour force and community work) placement outcomes for each provider type. In general, learners placed with employers are most likely of all provider types to be unemployed, out of the labour force or involved in community work directly after leaving a Youth Training placement. This is an interesting observation when placed against the finding, noted earlier, that those placed with employers also have the highest propensity to move into full-time employment. This reflects a low propensity of this group moving into further training or part-time employment.

Charitable trust, employer-based and polytechnic/ITP-based learners were more likely to attain an other outcome in 2008 than in 2007, following a period of overall decline.

Figure 27 – Other placement outcomes by provider type 1999 to 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

Footnotes

25. There is some debate about whether two month destinations recorded for accountability purposes in targeted training programmes can be considered to be ‘outcomes’ due to their short term nature, however this issue is not addressed in this paper and destinations are referred to variously as outputs, outcomes, destinations and labour market outcomes.
26. where labour market outcomes are known.
27. Where groups size is small and percentage shown is also small (i.e. for the other group), high volatility from year to year may be observed.
28. Where groups size is small and percentage shown is also small, high volatility from year to year may be observed.
29. Where groups size is small and percentage shown is also small, high volatility from year to year may be observed.