Training Opportunities: Exploring what happens two months later

Placement end year

The odds of attaining each placement outcome differs over calendar years. This is probably due to a number of factors that are not included in the model, such as the year to year change of the macro-economic environment, changing labour market conditions and the availability of other / further education options, as well as any differences associated with programme policy adjustments. In effect, this variable may be largely picking up the effects of shifts in the labour market across years.

The odds of an employment outcome over an other outcome gradually increased across years from 1999 so that by 2004 an employment outcome was more likely than an other outcome. The odds of a return to Training Opportunities are lower than the odds of an other outcome until 2007 when it becomes as likely.

Figure 6 shows the odds of each outcome over an other outcome by year, and compared to the unemployment rate for each year. As we would expect, the odds of an employment outcome increase when the national unemployment rate decreases, and vice versa. The difference between the two is almost symmetrical: in the years where an employment outcome is more likely than an other outcome, the unemployment rate is below 5 percent.

This symmetrical relationship reinforces the finding that an employment outcome after a Training Opportunities placement is quite dependent on the prevailing labour market conditions at the time.

Figure 6 – Odds ratio of labour market outcome to other outcome category by year  

Note: points above 1 indicate more likely to occur than an other outcome, while points below 1 indicate the outcome is less likely to occur than an other outcome.