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School leavers’ progression to bachelors-level study

Publication Details

This study looks at the likelihood of people leaving school for bachelors level study. It considered school leavers who had gained the University Entrance standard. The study investigated how the decision to go on to bachelors-level study was affected by the students’ standard of performance in NCEA, their ethnic group and gender, the socio-economic ranking (decile) of the school they attended, and whether or not they progressed directly to tertiary study after leaving school. The study used a method of reporting ethnicity that allowed for comparisons both within and between ethnic groups.

The report finds that those students with higher levels of success in NCEA were significantly more likely to go on to bachelors-level study. The decile of the school attended made no difference to this likelihood for Asian and European students, but Māori and some Pasifika students, with higher levels of academic ability, and who came from lower-decile schools, were significantly less likely to go on to bachelors study than similar students from higher-decile schools.

Author(s): Ralf Engler, Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis and Reporting [Ministry of Education]

Date Published: March 2010

Appendix A: Sample Sizes

Tables showing sample sizes for the four models used in the study.
University Entrance statusSchool decile categoryProgressed directly to tertiaryTook a break
Never EuropeanEver EuropeanSole EuropeanNever EuropeanEver EuropeanSole European
Did not gain UEDeciles 1-224652832383470
Deciles 3-85393161,4574671691,374
Deciles 9-1023010867813137562
Did gain UEDeciles 1-286932965534465216
Deciles 3-84,9413,21518,6941,3186015,343
Deciles 9-103,7371,58312,3358482693,573


University Entrance statusSchool decile categoryProgressed directly to tertiaryTook a break
Never AsianEver AsianSole AsianNever AsianEver AsianSole Asian
Did not gain UEDeciles 1-2344191832886
Deciles 3-82,012742261,8813198
Deciles 9-1080743166652672
Did gain UEDeciles 1-21,6001081455751337
Deciles 3-822,7429563,1526,672118472
Deciles 9-1013,9366373,0823,99480616


University Entrance statusSchool decile categoryProgressed directly to tertiaryTook a break
Never MāoriEver MāoriSole MāoriNever MāoriEver MāoriSole Māori
Did not gain UEDeciles 1-2256507518336123
Deciles 3-81,9502421201,660132218
Deciles 9-1093864146733324
Did gain UEDeciles 1-21,35529420441766142
Deciles 3-823,9772,2386356,337456469
Deciles 9-1016,6938221404,42117693


University Entrance statusSchool decile categoryProgressed directly to tertiaryTook a break
Never PasifikaEver PasifikaSole PasifikaNever PasifikaEver PasifikaSole Pasifika
Did not gain UEDeciles 1-2218401232361888
Deciles 3-82,109981051,8714891
Deciles 9-10969389713710
Did gain UEDeciles 1-21,28119737546532128
Deciles 3-825,5278644596,926152184
Deciles 9-1017,265307834,6204624

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