School leavers’ progression to bachelors-level study

3. The study population

3.1 Data sources

Two sources of data were used. School achievement data was provided by the New Zealand Qualifications Authority. This was linked, via the national student number³ to tertiary enrolment data supplied by tertiary education providers to the Ministry of Education. The tertiary education data included enrolments in formal provider-based courses, industry training, and targeted training.

3.2 The students

Previous studies (Ussher 2008, Scott 2008) have used these data sources, but, in those studies, the data was constructed so as to create school leaving year cohorts. That is, students leaving school in the same year were considered as cohorts. For students in tertiary education but without a school achievement record, a school leaving year was required to be imputed. In some circumstances this is problematic. Students who leave school, then undertake some tertiary study, and then go back to school (to complete or raise their school qualifications), are difficult to fit into a scheme that requires a single school leaving year.

For the present study, a different approach was used. Birth dates are accurately known, so cohorts in this study were based on birth years. In any one year, each student is known to be either at school, in some type of tertiary education, in neither, or in both. It is also possible to determine the first year the student started tertiary education, and if they took a break between leaving school and starting this study.

The study population for the present study was defined as people born between 1985 and 1991 who had left school. For those who were studying at tertiary level, their first year of study was selected. This resulted in the study including tertiary enrolments in the years 2005 to 2008 for people 17 to 21 years of age. The study also included those students who had left school but had not started any tertiary study. Students with missing school decile were excluded; this group is essentially those students who studied at the Correspondence School. Few students were in this category, so do not distort the findings of the analysis. International fee paying students were also excluded. From the remaining group, only students with UE or NCEA level 3 or higher were selected. Note that a student can achieve UE without necessarily obtaining NCEA level 3, and visa versa.

If students studying at tertiary level were enrolled in more than one course of study, the highest level of study was used. For example, if a student was studying for a level 3 certificate and a level 7 bachelors-level qualification, the bachelors study would have been selected.

A student’s school qualification was needed in the analysis, which meant that only students with NCEA results were included in the study. This excluded two groups of students. The first group was those students who leave school without receiving any NCEA credits or qualifications, but who do go on and either study at tertiary level or undertake some other post-secondary educational activity. However, it is unlikely that their exclusion would bias these results, since, in the main, they will not be the students who achieved UE or NCEA level 3, and so would be excluded from the study population.

The second group of students excluded were those who exclusively sat non-National Qualifications Framework examinations (mostly Cambridge International or International Baccalaureate), and while these will be more likely to have attained higher-level school qualifications, and were therefore more likely to go on to study at bachelors level, there are relatively few of these students, and so will not affect this study in any significant way.

Students from schools known to offer Cambridge International or International Baccalaureate examinations were also excluded from the study population.

The final study population consisted of 65,726 students.

Footnote

3. More information on the national student number can be found on the Ministry of Education website.