School leavers’ progression to bachelors-level study

1. Introduction

Tertiary education provides substantial benefits to those who succeed in their studies. People with tertiary qualifications, particularly bachelors degrees or higher, have, on average, higher employment rates and higher earnings. They have generally higher levels of health and healthier lifestyles, experience greater satisfaction with their lives, and overall, have better prospects of improving their socio-economic status (Smart 2006, OECD 2008). Tertiary educated people also have higher employment rates later in their lives (OECD 2008).

Study at degree level at a university in New Zealand requires a person to have gained University Entrance (UE), which is based on credits achieved from standards primarily from the National Certificate of Education Achievement (NCEA) level 3 qualification. Entry requirements are relaxed somewhat for adult learners, but most people who study at bachelors level are 18 to 24 years of age, and usually do so immediately after leaving school.

Other studies have previously considered the transition from school to tertiary study. Ussher (2008), in particular, considered the choices New Zealand school leavers made across the broad range of tertiary education pathways. Ussher’s study used data linking NCEA results and tertiary enrolment data. It included all students leaving school, regardless of their leaving qualifications and looked at all tertiary education destinations. But for students without UE, study at bachelors level is usually not an option open to them.

The present study also uses data that links individual students’ NCEA results to their tertiary enrolment records. It considers only those students who do have UE or NCEA level 3 or higher, and examines who goes on to study at bachelors level after leaving school. Students with this level of qualification do have a choice as to what they study, so it is revealing to see who does not study at this level.

There is a further important dimension to this study. In the analysis of outcomes of education in New Zealand there is much focus on Māori and Pasifika ethnic groups (Ministry of Education 2008a, 2008b, Earle 2008). This is because the data consistently shows that on average, Māori and Pasifika students have lower levels of academic achievement than European and Asian students in secondary school. The introduction of the NCEA has improved student outcomes, including for Māori and Pasifika, but Māori and Pasifika achievement remains at levels much below that of European and Asian students. For example, school leavers gaining UE have increased over recent years, rising from 32 per cent in 2004 to 43 per cent in 2008 (Minister of Education 2009)¹. But again the figures are lower for Māori and Pasifika students. In 2004, the proportion of Māori school leavers with UE was 12 per cent, rising to 20 per cent in 2008. For Pasifika, the figures were 14 per cent rising to 23 per cent (op. cit.).

This picture of Māori and Pasifika student achievement belies the fact that many Māori and Pasifika students do succeed in gaining high level NCEA qualifications. In this study, by just considering students who have been successful in gaining the qualifications that enable progression to bachelors level study, it is possible to compare tertiary study destinations controlling for this source of disparity.

This study considers the likelihood of a student studying at bachelors level, given they have achieved UE or NCEA level 3 or higher school qualification. The explanatory factors used in the study include gender, whether or not the student gained UE, whether the student progressed to tertiary study immediately after leaving school, or took some time off, how well they did in their studies, the socio-economic status (the school decile) of the last school they attended, and the student’s ethnicity. The study used data linking secondary school leavers and their achievements with post-secondary enrolments.

The next section considers other studies which have looked at the factors affecting the likelihood of studying at tertiary level, both in New Zealand and overseas.

Section 3 describes the study population, while section 4 describes the study variables used.

Section 5 describes the results of this study, and the study concludes in section 6 with a brief discussion of the results.

The appendix shows the sample sizes for the various models used in the study.

Footnote

1. In the results reported in this section, a student’s ethnicity is based on a prioritised method of classification. Refer to the study variables section for a discussion on how ethnic group was determined in this study.