Industry Training stocks and flows... and the effects of the economic downturn

Modern apprenticeships

4.1 Modern Apprenticeships new starts

New entrants to Modern Apprenticeships dropped in 2009, following a period of sustained growth. Table 8 shows the number of Modern Apprenticeship new starts compared to total throughput in each year. The proportion of new starts compared to throughput dropped to 24 percent in 2009, after averaging 33 percent between 2004 and 2008. Overall, the raw number of new starts dropped by 27 percent, after an average increase of 12 percent between 2004 and 2008.

Figure 6 shows new starts as a proportion of throughput by administering ITO and year. As with industry training, there appears to be some variation of new starts between ITOs, but the variation does not seem so widespread.

ITOs with large drops in new starts compared to throughput in 2009 include: boating, building and construction, creative trades, electricity supply, electrotechnology, InfraTrain, joinery, hairdressing, flooring, sports turf, public sector, seafood and Tranzqual – most of them, in fact. Agriculture, horticulture, forestry and retail are the only ITOs where new starts grew in 2009.

Figure 6 – Modern Apprenticeships new starts by ITO as proportion of total throughput 2005-2009

Table 9 shows the percentage change from year to year of new starts by ethnic group, age of learner at start and region. New starts by younger learners declined much faster than for older learners in 2009. New starts by European apprentices declined more slowly than those by Māori or Pasifika people.

No region saw an increase in new starts in 2009. The Northland and South Taranaki regions saw the largest percentage declines in new starts, while Eastern  Coast and Nelson/Marlborough/ West Coast regions were less affected.

4.2 Modern Apprenticeship terminations and unexplained exits by ITO

Withdrawals increased in 2009, a situation which seemed to have started in 2008. Table 10 shows the proportion of terminations and unexplained exits (withdrawals) to the total throughput of trainees in each ITO by year of exit. The proportion of withdrawals to total Modern Apprenticeship activity increased from 12 percent in 2003 to an estimated 17 percent in 2009.

Figure 7 shows the proportion of withdrawals from Modern Apprenticeships in relation to the total throughput of trainees in each ITO by year. Overall, there has been a small but noticeable increase in the number of withdrawals compared to previous years – but much smaller than the increase in withdrawals from industry training in 2009.

Some industries, such as seafood and Tranzqual (road transport, passenger services, warehousing and logistics, ports and stevedoring) had large numbers of withdrawals compared to total throughput in 2009. Aviation tourism and travel ITO withdrawals declined in 2009, as did NZITO’s (covering dairy manufacturing, meat processing and the leather industry), where withdrawals peaked in 2008.

Figure 7 – Modern Apprenticeship withdrawal by ITO as proportion of total throughput 2005-2009