Industry Training stocks and flows... and the effects of the economic downturn
Publication Details
This paper examines the new starts, terminations and other exits in industry training, looking at the relationship between industry training take-up and the business cycle. Because participants in industry training must have jobs to enter training, and because industry shares some of the cost of training, it is expected that flows of learners into, within, and out of industry training will match changes in the business cycle.
Author(s): Paul Mahoney, Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis and Reporting Division [Ministry of Education]
Date Published: September 2010
Changes in industry conditions
2.1 Gross Domestic Product growth
It is important to look at changes in Gross Domestic Product4 (GDP) in different industries to see if there are any areas of congruence with industry training participation.5
Table 1 shows the percentage change in GDP by broad industry area between 2004 and 2009. Several industries contracted in 2009, against the trend of the preceding years, including some covered by industry training and Modern Apprenticeships. These include forestry, wood and paper products, metal product manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, accommodation and restaurants. Agriculture declined from 2008, as did property services. Several other industries have been in decline since 2006/2007: fishing and food, beverage and tobacco. Construction began to decline in 2007, grew moderately in 2008, and dropped sharply in 2009.
Fewer of the industries covered by industry training appeared to grow in 2009: electricity, gas and water supply, local government administration, health and community services and cultural and recreational services were the only ones that grew.
Source: Statistics New Zealand | ||||||
| Broad industry area | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| Agriculture | 13.3 | -2.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| Forestry and Logging | -4.4 | -5.4 | -1.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 | -4.4 |
| Fishing | -4.3 | -5.4 | 6.2 | -1.8 | -5.0 | -2.9 |
| Mining | -14.4 | -2.5 | 8.1 | -5.1 | 42.6 | -1.3 |
| Food, Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing. | 7.9 | 0.8 | 3.1 | -8.5 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| Textile and Apparel Manufacturing | -7.1 | 1.4 | -2.8 | -0.7 | -3.4 | -9.5 |
| Wood and Paper Products Manufacturing | -0.8 | 7.2 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 3.4 | -11.2 |
| Printing, Publishing and Recorded Media | 3.1 | 3.3 | -2.2 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -5.9 |
| Petroleum, Chemical, Plastic and Rubber Product | -6.8 | 4.3 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -4.7 | -4.5 |
| Non-metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing | 8.5 | 9.2 | -0.4 | 3.0 | 6.0 | -7.0 |
| Metal Product Manufacturing | 7.3 | -2.2 | -1.5 | -4.8 | 0.7 | -11.0 |
| Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | -9.5 | 7.4 | -4.9 |
| Furniture and Other Manufacturing | 3.5 | 1.0 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -7.7 | -13.2 |
| Electricity, Gas and Water Supply | 1.6 | 4.0 | -3.4 | 6.6 | -3.5 | 0.6 |
| Construction | 10.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.6 | 3.4 | -9.6 |
| Wholesale Trade | 1.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 4.3 | -5.2 |
| Retail Trade | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | -3.6 |
| Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -3.3 |
| Transport and Storage | 2.6 | 7.4 | 2.4 | -1.1 | 4.6 | -1.4 |
| Communication Services | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| Finance and Insurance | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 3.8 |
| Property Services | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | -1.1 | -2.4 |
| Ownership of Owner-occupied Dwellings | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Business Services | 3.1 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 |
| Real Estate and Business Services | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| Central Government Administration and Defence | 4.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| Local Government Administration | 7.2 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Education | 1.8 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Health and Community Services | 5.3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Cultural and Recreational Services | 4.1 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 6.4 |
| Personal and Other Community Services | 1.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -2.5 |
2.2 Employment by industry
Table 2 shows the number of people employed by broad industry area 2003 to 2009. Agriculture, forestry and fishing, manufacturing, transport, postal and warehousing contracted in 2009, against the trend of previous years. The number of construction workers declined from 2008.
There was growth or relative stability in a number of industries, including wholesale trade, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste services, financial and insurance services (not covered by industry training), and health care and social assistance.
Source: Statistics New Zealand | |||||||
| Broad industry area | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 155 | 149 | 144 | 148 | 151 | 148 | 143 |
| Mining | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Manufacturing | 277 | 287 | 279 | 273 | 272 | 271 | 250 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| Construction | 144 | 157 | 166 | 189 | 189 | 183 | 181 |
| Wholesale Trade | 92 | 104 | 106 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 100 |
| Retail Trade and Accommodation | 318 | 311 | 319 | 329 | 347 | 348 | 337 |
| Transport, Postal and Warehousing | 93 | 98 | 99 | 96 | 96 | 100 | 93 |
| Information Media and Telecommunications | 36 | 37 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 41 |
| Financial and Insurance Services | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 68 |
| Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services | 31 | 33 | 36 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 |
| Professional, Scientific, Technical, Administrative and Support Services | 189 | 204 | 219 | 228 | 230 | 235 | 240 |
| Public Administration and Safety | 99 | 102 | 112 | 117 | 118 | 113 | 118 |
| Education and Training | 159 | 166 | 170 | 170 | 174 | 180 | 184 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 175 | 178 | 186 | 193 | 200 | 205 | 221 |
| Arts, Recreation and Other Services | 112 | 113 | 121 | 118 | 119 | 125 | 120 |
2.3 Unemployment by age
The effects of changes in the labour market from 2008 to 2009 were more drastic for young people, with moderate changes for older people.
Table 3 shows the proportion of people unemployed from 2003 to 2009. The unemployment rate for those aged 24 years or less increased very sharply in 2009 compared to that of other age groups, with 15 to 19-year-olds’ level of unemployment increasing by 7.3 percentage points. Older people were less significantly affected.
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey Note: .. means that the figure is not available | |||||||
| Age group | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| 15-19 Unemployment Rate | 14.5 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 16.1 | 23.4 |
| 20-24 Unemployment Rate | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 11.5 |
| 25-29 Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 6.2 |
| 30-34 Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 5.2 |
| 35-39 Unemployment Rate | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| 40-44 Unemployment Rate | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| 45-49 Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| 50-54 Unemployment Rate | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| 60-64 Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| 65+ Unemployment Rate | .. | .. | 1.8 | 2.1 | .. | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| All Unemployment Rate | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 6.1 |
Footnotes
- GDP growth measures the total economic activity across all industry sectors in the economy, measured in the total dollar contribution.
- it is not currently possible to match ITO coverage with an industry classification such as ANZSIC due to lack of collection of information about programme coverage.
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