4. Participation in Training Opportunities by demographic factors

4.1. Participation from 1999 to 2007

Training Opportunities placements fell during the 1999 to 2007 period, but not as sharply as unemployment. As a consequence, Training Opportunities appears to have ‘bitten deeper’ into the ‘core’ of low or not qualified and/or long-term unemployed people.

The Training Opportunities fund is capped and is distributed by the TEC based on official statistics measuring unemployment in each region of the country. Participation in Training Opportunities has fluctuated in line with the changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the associated levels of unemployment in certain periods: in others it has seemed insensitive to GDP growth change.

Figure 1 shows that where GDP growth has declined, the percentage change in placements per annum has also declined with the exception of 2006 when the number of placements increased. Between 2001 and 2003 there was steady GDP growth, at the same time as a steep decline in the growth of Training Opportunities placements followed by a recovery due to the widening of the eligibility criteria. The period 2003 to 2005 saw falling GDP growth, while Training Opportunities placement growth also dropped steadily, except in 2006 where growth was slightly positive.

Figure 1 – GDP growth vs. placement growth

Note: GDP percentage change per annum is from June quarter of each year. Source: Tertiary Education Commission / Statistics New Zealand.

A comparison of the number of unemployed people with no or low qualifications compared to the number of Training Opportunities placements can serve as a rough measure of the coverage of targeted people (there are other eligibility criteria, discussed later).  Table 1 shows Training Opportunities placements by year compared to total estimates of the number of unemployed people in each year, and the estimates of the number of unemployed people with low qualifications.

The 1999 to 2007 period encompasses changing labour market dynamics characterised by historically high levels of labour market participation within the country, low levels of unemployment and widely reported skills and labour shortages. Changes in patterns of tertiary education participation also occurred during the same time period, with high growth in participation at certificate 1 to 3 levels.

Table 1 below shows that while participation in Training Opportunities has dropped in nominal terms from 1999 to 2007, it has remained more or less steady at around 20 percent of the total estimates of the number of unemployed people in the labour force.

Statistics collected to measure the official unemployment rate show that approximately half (47 percent) of unemployed people during the 1999 to 2007 period had low or no qualifications.  When compared, placement numbers in Training Opportunities represent roughly 45 percent (on average) of unemployed people with low or no qualifications across the period. Significantly, the proportions of learners placed in Training Opportunities compared to the number of unemployed people with of low or no qualifications has increased between 1999 and 2007, by approximately 10 percentage points, even while the numbers of placements in Training Opportunities has fallen.

Table 1 – Training Opportunities participation compared to June quarter HLFS unemployment 1999 to 2007^9,10

Note: Total placements means the number of distinct individuals with one or more placements within each year rather than the total number of placements.    Source: Tertiary Education Commission, Statistics New Zealand.
	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
TO total placements	24,496	23,477	22,970	20,143	19,749	18,678	17,099	17,571	17,102
HLFS unemployed	131,500	115,500	101,400	101,100	93,300	81,600	76,200	76,100	83,300
TO placements as a proportion of all unemployed	18.6%	20.3%	22.7%	19.9%	21.2%	22.9%	22.4%	23.1%	20.5%
HLFS unemployed    – low / no quals	67,200	58,800	50,500	46,300	41,200	37,500	34,600	33,500	37,300
TO placements as a proportion of low / no quals unemployed	36.5%	39.9%	45.5%	43.5%	47.9%	49.8%	49.4%	52.5%	45.8%

 

Table 2 shows statistics on the number of unemployment–related benefit (UEB) clients from 1999 to 2007, by length of current spell in receipt of benefit.  It shows a steady decrease in the number of unemployment-related benefit recipients over the 1999 to 2007 period, from 159,000 in 1999 to just 29,000 in 2007, a decrease of 81 percent. The number of unemployment-related benefit recipients of six or more months decreased from 99,000 in 1999 to 15,000 in 2007, a decrease of 85 percent.

Table 2 – Trends in the period clients have received an unemployment-related benefit  (UEB) 1999 to 2007

Note Year applies to fiscal year ending June for MSD data.    Source: Ministry of Social Development.
Length of current  spell	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Under 6 months	59,553	53,411	46,214	43,196	38,306	28,669	23,810	21,374	14,096
6 months to 2 years	76,446	68,402	47,799	41,498	36,300	23,256	17,510	14,875	9,142
2 to 4 years	16,834	20,574	28,641	23,748	14,330	10,048	6,243	4,063	3,109
Over 4 years	6,096	7,066	8,773	10,111	14,931	11,599	7,779	5,186	3,141
Total	158,929	149,453	131,427	118,553	103,867	73,572	55,342	45,498	29,488
Total 6 months and over	99,376	96,042	85,213	75,357	65,561	44,903	31,532	24,124	15,392
% change 6 months and over		–3.4%	–11.3%	–11.6%	–13.0%	-31.5%	–29.8%	–23.5%	–36.2%

Table 3 shows statistics on the number of unemployment-related benefit clients receiving benefits for 6 months or more from 1999 to 2007, and compares this to the number of placements in Training Opportunities in each year. In 1999 Training Opportunities learner numbers represented 25 percent of long-term unemployment-related benefit recipients, and by 2007, this proportion increased to 111 percent.

When compared to the number of placements under the Work and Income (WINZ 18+)  eligibility criteria, Training Opportunities placements represent 9 percent of the number of unemployment-related benefit recipients of 6 months or more in 1999, and 16 percent in 2007, although the proportion does not show a uniform change from year to year. The proportion peaks in 2000 and 2001, troughs in 2003, and rises steadily thereafter.

Table 3 – Trends in the period clients have received an unemployment-related benefit 1999 to 2007

Note Year applies to fiscal year ending June for MSD data, but to calendar year for Training Opportunities placements.    Sources: Ministry of Social Development, Tertiary Education Commission.
Length of current  spell	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
TO total placements	24,496	23,477	22,970	20,143	19,749	18,678	17,099	17,571	17,102
Total 6 UEB months and over	99,376	96,042	85,213	75,357	65,561	44,903	31,532	24,124	15,392
Proportion  of TO to UEB 6 month plus	24.6%	24.4%	27.0%	26.7%	30.1%	41.6%	54.2%	72.8%	111.1%
WINZ 18+ TO placements	8,627	9,619	9,014	6,948	3,695	2,755	1,895	1,995	2,442
Proportion  WINZ 18+ TO placements to UEB 6 months plus	8.7%	10.0%	10.6%	9.2%	5.6%	6.1%	6.0%	8.3%	15.9%

 

In summary, Training Opportunities coverage of its core constituencies (people eligible to participate) has changed from 1999 to 2007. The change in the total amount of Training Opportunities funding used (within the available funding limit) has been sensitive to changes in GDP growth during the period. Changing labour market conditions during this period, eventuating in periods of historically low unemployment and high labour market participation, coupled with increases in participation in level 1 to 3 qualifications, has reduced the Training Opportunities client base.

The number of Training Opportunities learners dropped within the period (by 30 percent), but not at the same rate as:

• the total estimates of the number of unemployed as measured in the HLFS (by 36 percent),
• the estimates of low or not qualified unemployed as measured by the HLFS (by 45 percent),
• the number of UEB related claimants (by 81 percent),
• the number of UEB related claimants of 6 or more months duration (by 85 percent).
  

The following sections examine participation changes by demographic groups compared with changes in the structure of the population during the 1999 period.

4.2. Participation by ethnic group

Participation in Training Opportunities differs between ethnic groups. Changes across the 1999 to 2007 period reflect changes in both the unemployment rate of ethnic groups and the changing ethnic make-up of the population of New Zealand. Greater participation by Pasifika and Asian learners mirrors these groups’ increasing share of the overall population, while European participation has fallen as Europeans have become a smaller proportion of the population.

Table 4 shows the rate of unemployment for broad ethnic groups between 1999 and 2007, and the change in the estimated numbers of people unemployed in each group. Unemployment fell for all ethnic groups between 1999 and 2007. The Māori and Pasifika ethnic groups have had consistently higher rates of unemployment than Europeans during this period. The final column shows that the estimated number of unemployed people in each ethnic group fell much faster for some ethnic groups, such as Māori (by 49.8 percent), than for others (by 24.3 percent for Pasifika for example).

 

Table 4 – HLFS unemployment rate by ethnic group at  30 June 1999 to 2007

Note Ethnic group is prioritised by the TEC. As such, some groups may be under-represented.    Source: Statistics New Zealand.
Ethnic group	1999             (%)	2000             (%)	2001             (%)	2002             (%)	2003             (%)	2004             (%)	2005             (%)	2006             (%)	2007             (%)	% change       1999 – 2007
European	5.1	4.6	4.0	3.7	3.4	3.0	2.5	2.4	2.8	–38.3
Māori	18.2	13.0	11.9	11.0	10.4	8.8	8.6	8.2	7.0	–49.8
Other	11.9	11.6	8.6	8.4	8.3	5.8	6.7	5.9	4.8	–6.2
Pasifika	12.7	10.8	9.1	9.7	7.1	7.4	6.0	5.9	8.1	–24.3
Total	6.9	6.1	5.2	5.1	4.6	4.0	3.6	3.5	3.5	–39.7

Table 5 shows the proportion of placements in Training Opportunities by ethnic group. On average Māori are the largest ethnic group among Training Opportunities participants; followed by Europeans. Pasifika learners constitute 11 percent of learners placed on average, while Asian learners make up about 5 percent.

The proportion of placements by learners who identify as European and Māori has fallen over the 1999 to 2007 period while the proportion of learners identifying as Asian has risen. Pasifika learners have been a relatively static proportion across the period; but were a higher proportion of placements than ever before in 2007.
 

Table 5 – Training Opportunities participation by ethnic group by year

Note Total placements means  the number distinct individuals with one or more placements within each year rather than the total number of placements.    Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Ethnic group	1999      (%)	2000      (%)	2001      (%)	2002      (%)	2003      (%)	2004      (%)	2005      (%)	2006      (%)	2007      (%)
European	38.9	39.2	38.1	38.1	35.6	34.5	35.3	36.4	35.1
Māori	42.3	41.4	42.4	41.3	41.8	41.8	41.1	40.8	40.5
Pasifika	11.1	10.8	10.7	9.9	11.2	11.6	11.3	11.3	12.7
Asian	3.4	3.9	3.6	4.6	5.2	5.6	6.0	5.9	6.2
Other	4.3	4.7	5.2	5.9	6.1	6.5	6.3	5.6	5.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

 

The population composition of 15 to 64 year olds across ethnic groups between roughly the same time period (1996 to 2006) shows a decline in the relative proportion of residents identifying as ‘European’ or ‘New Zealander’; and an increase in the proportion who identify as ‘Pasifika’, ‘Asian’ and ‘Middle Eastern/Latin American/African’ (MELA).

The proportion identifying as Māori has fallen relatively between 1996 and 2001, and remains static up to 2006. (see Table four below).

It is evident that changes in relative proportions of Training Opportunities placements by ethnic group has been somewhat in line with changes in relative population growth.

Table 6 – Census resident population by ethnic group by census year – 15 to 64 year olds, 1996, 2001 and 2006

Note Total placements means the number distinct individuals with one or more placements within each year rather than the total number of placements.   Source: Statistics New Zealand.
Ethnic group	1996       (%)	2001       (%)	2006       (%)
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander)	82.1	78.5	75.6
Māori	14.1	13.8	13.8
Pasifika	5.5	6.0	6.5
Asian	5.7	7.8	10.8
Middle Eastern/Latin American/African	0.5	0.7	1.0

Table 7 shows the level of participation in Training Opportunities as a percentage of the number of people identifying as unemployed in the HLFS from the 30th June of each year by ethnic group. In summary, Māori and Pasifika unemployed people seem to participate in Training Opportunities at much higher levels than other ethnic groups.

The proportion identifying as Māori ranges from 35 percent to 47 percent of the number of unemployed Māori in each year, while the number of Training Opportunities learners who identify as Pasifika range from 22 percent to 36 percent of unemployed Pasifika.

Unemployed Europeans participate in Training Opportunities at much lower levels than either of these two groups: and at a slightly lower level than ‘Other’ learners.

Table 7 – Training Opportunities participation by ethnic group as proportion of HLFS unemployed category 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Ethnic group	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
European	12.1	13.0	14.2	13.3	13.3	13.3	14.9	16.0	12.4
Māori	34.9	41.0	44.7	37.2	39.0	47.0	41.4	42.2	46.5
Other	14.7	16.8	18.8	18.2	17.9	23.3	15.6	15.3	16.5
Pasifika	26.4	29.1	33.6	22.0	34.1	31.0	36.4	34.2	27.8

Table 8 shows the level of participation in Training Opportunities as a proportion of the number of ‘low or no qualifications’ people identifying as unemployed in the HLFS from the 30th June in each year by ethnic group.

In summary: Māori are highly represented in Training Opportunities. The number of Māori participating in Training Opportunities as a proportion of the number of Māori unemployed who have no or low qualifications ranges from 49 percent to 83 percent (depending on the year); while, in contrast, the proportion for European ranges from 28 percent to 40 percent of those with no or low educational qualifications unemployed. Pasifika learners lie somewhere between these two, with a range of 36 percent to 64 percent.

Table 8 – Training Opportunities participation by ethnic group as proportion of HLFS unemployed category: low or no qualifications 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Ethnic group	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
European	28.0	27.7	30.8	31.5	31.6	31.6	37.0	40.0	27.7
Māori	49.3	65.2	73.7	65.0	76.5	75.7	64.0	83.3	79.6
Other	40.3	42.3	49.6	50.7	57.2	102.9	48.9	43.2	80.0
Pasifika	36.3	42.9	51.1	40.9	52.8	47.2	64.3	47.2	49.4

4.3. Participation by gender

The gender mix of placements has been fairly evenly balanced between 1999 and 2007. Females make up just over half of all placements by individuals across the period, at an average of 51 percent.

Statistics New Zealand Census data shows that women accounted for 50.3 percent of the resident 15 to 64 years population in 1996, rising to 51 percent in 2006. In this context, participation in Training Opportunities was slightly higher for women than for men between 2000 and 2006; reaching a peak in 2005 and dropping away again by 2007.

Table 9 – Training Opportunities participation by gender 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Gender	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Females	49.3	51.4	51.0	51.8	51.8	52.3	53.4	51.6	50.7
Males	50.7	48.6	49.0	48.2	48.2	47.7	46.6	48.4	49.3

4.4. Participation by age

The age profile of learners participating in Training Opportunities has changed in line with the ageing of the overall population of New Zealand.

Table 10 shows the age profile of the population from the 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses. In summary; it portrays an ageing population (characterised by insufficient replacement of young people). The proportion of the resident population aged 15 to 39 years declined significantly in the period (by 5.5 percentage points), while the proportion aged 40 years or over increased by 5.5 percentage points across the  ten years.

Table 10 – Resident population age 15 years or older 1996, 2001, 2006

Source: Statistics New Zealand.
Age group	1996       (%)	2001       (%)	2006       (%)
15    to 19 years	9.4	9.2	9.5
20    to 24 years	9.8	8.5	8.8
25    to 29 years	9.9	8.6	7.9
30    to 34 years	10.5	9.7	8.7
35    to 39 years	10.3	10.2	9.5
40    to 44 years	9.2	9.9	9.8
45    to 49 years	8.7	8.7	9.3
50    to 54 years	6.7	8.2	8.0
55    to 59 years	5.7	6.3	7.4
60    to 64 years	4.8	5.4	5.7
65 years or    over	15.0	15.3	15.5

Table 11 shows a changing age profile for placements in Training Opportunities from 1999 to 2007: one that could mostly be accounted for by population ageing. The proportion of placements by young people (24 years old at placement or younger) has been reasonably stable between 1999 and 2007. However, the proportion of learners who are 25 to 30 years old has fallen since 1999 as has the proportion who are aged 31 to 40 years old at placement.  Learners aged 41 years and older have steadily increased from 1999 to 2007 as a proportion of total placements by individuals.

In summary, learners aged 39 years or younger accounted for 82 percent of placements in 1999, but by 2007 this proportion had dropped by 8.1 percentage points to 74 percent. The proportion of placements by learners aged 40 years or more increased from 18.1 percent in 1999 to 26.3 percent in 2007 (a commensurate increase of 8.1 percentage points).
 

 Table 11 – Training Opportunities participation by age group at placement 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Age group	1999       (%)	2000        (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
15 to 19 years	23.1	21.7	21.6	22.1	24.1	23.2	23.5	24.0	23.7
20 to 24 years	19.7	20.0	20.0	20.5	20.6	20.5	19.6	20.5	19.9
25 to 29 years	14.2	13.8	13.4	13.0	11.9	11.7	11.0	10.9	11.0
30 to 34 years	12.9	13.0	12.6	12.4	11.9	11.6	10.9	10.1	9.2
35 to 39 years	11.9	12.1	12.0	11.6	11.0	10.3	10.4	9.6	9.9
40 to 44 years	8.5	9.0	9.4	9.1	9.1	9.1	9.0	9.3	9.2
45 to 49 years	5.6	5.9	6.0	6.2	6.3	6.5	7.3	7.3	7.5
50 to 54 years	3.1	3.3	3.6	3.6	3.8	4.6	4.9	4.8	5.5
55 to 59 years	0.8	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.0	2.0	2.8	2.8	3.2
60 to 64 years	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8
65 years or    over	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1

 

4.5. Participation by region

The distribution of Training Opportunities learners throughout the regions of New Zealand has consistently reflected the distribution of unemployed people. In some regions, coverage of Training Opportunities has grown, as the decline in the number of learners has not matched the rate of decline in numbers of unemployed people in that region overall.

Table 12 shows a variety of placements by year across New Zealand’s main regional areas.  The Auckland region consistently shows the greatest proportion of Training Opportunities participants; while the Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast region shows the lowest proportion.

Table 12 – Training Opportunities participation by TEC region 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Region	1999        (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Northland	7.2	7.1	7.4	6.8	6.6	7.2	8.0	6.9	6.8
Auckland	25.8	26.4	25.0	24.9	26.1	26.5	25.4	25.6	27.5
Bay of Plenty	8.8	9.1	9.4	8.8	9.0	8.5	8.2	9.1	8.4
Waikato	8.9	10.1	9.3	10.0	10.1	9.8	9.1	9.5	8.7
Eastern	9.6	7.5	8.3	8.3	7.8	7.4	7.3	7.2	7.8
Taranaki/Wanganui/Manawatu	9.4	10.1	10.8	10.0	10.0	10.0	5.7	5.8	5.9
Wellington	8.0	8.1	8.1	9.0	8.8	10.0	14.8	15.5	15.3
Nelson/Marlborough/West  Coast	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.4	4.8	4.2	4.4	4.2	4.4
Canterbury	10.0	9.4	9.8	10.3	9.9	9.4	10.1	9.5	8.4
Southern	7.7	7.8	7.5	7.5	6.9	7.0	7.0	6.7	6.7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

When compared to the distribution of unemployed people in the labour force throughout New Zealand using the official unemployment rate in each region (Table 13), the distribution of Training Opportunities learners seems appropriate, with some minor differences.

Table 13 – Distribution of unemployed people by region 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Region	1999        (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Northland	5.7	4.9	4.7	5.6	5.7	4.5	4.7	5.1	4.0
Auckland	27.0	27.4	28.9	27.3	26.1	26.9	29.3	28.2	31.8
Bay of Plenty	8.6	8.0	8.1	8.8	8.3	7.8	5.2	5.8	5.3
Waikato	10.9	10.2	10.2	10.1	10.3	7.5	8.3	8.9	9.0
Eastern	5.3	5.5	6.2	5.1	5.1	5.8	6.4	6.4	5.9
Taranaki/Wanganui/Manawatu	6.9	9.2	8.3	8.1	8.3	8.9	8.4	9.5	9.2
Wellington	11.0	10.1	9.9	11.3	13.0	14.1	14.1	14.6	13.7
Nelson/Marlborough/West  Coast	3.6	3.8	2.8	3.2	2.7	3.2	2.7	3.4	3.2
Canterbury	13.8	13.8	14.4	13.7	13.2	13.8	13.5	12.0	12.1
Southern	7.3	7.1	6.5	6.8	7.3	7.5	7.3	6.0	5.8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Table 14 shows the official unemployment rate in each region for the June quarter of each year. Unemployment fell faster outside of the main population centres between 1999 and 2007: the Northland and Bay of Plenty regions saw falls of  6.8 and 8 percentage points respectively. The Auckland and Wellington regions’ unemployment fell by 2.7 and 4.1 percentage points respectively.

Table 14 – Unemployment rate by year and by TEC region 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Region	1999        (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Northland	13.3	9.4	8.4	9.5	8.9	6.3	5.4	5.6	4.5
Auckland	6.7	5.9	5.4	4.8	4.5	3.9	3.7	3.6	4.0
Bay of Plenty	11.6	8.6	8.0	8.2	7.4	6.1	4.0	4.4	3.6
Waikato	9.2	7.0	6.2	5.9	5.5	3.7	3.9	3.9	3.7
Eastern	8.1	7.6	7.2	5.8	5.5	5.4	5.0	4.9	4.9
Taranaki/Wanganui/Manawatu	6.8	7.7	5.8	5.4	5.0	4.8	4.0	4.4	4.3
Wellington	6.5	5.3	4.4	5.0	5.2	5.0	4.2	4.5	4.1
Nelson/Marlborough/West  Coast	5.8	5.9	3.7	4.1	3.3	3.3	2.3	3.1	3.0
Canterbury	7.6	6.5	5.7	5.1	4.6	4.1	3.3	2.9	3.1
Southern	7.2	6.3	5.1	5.0	5.0	4.4	3.9	3.3	3.2
Total	7.6	6.6	5.7	5.4	5.1	4.4	3.8	3.8	3.8

Table 15 shows the Training Opportunities participants divided by the estimate of the total  number of unemployed person in each region in each year, to provide a rough measure of Training Opportunities ‘coverage’. Efficiency dictates that, if programmes such as Training Opportunities are to be responsive to labour market need, all other things being equal, coverage should be constant across years.

Coverage appears to have increased overall between 1999 and 2007, by 3 percentage points while unemployment has dropped by 3.8 percentage points. There are interesting differences in the coverage between regions: coverage appears to be consistently higher in areas outside of the main population centres (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch).

The two regions that have grown the fastest in terms of coverage are Northland and Bay of Plenty, which we have established are the two regions wherein unemployment fell the fastest.  Coverage has grown by 10 percentage points in the Wellington region across 1999 to 2007, but only by 1 percentage point in Auckland. It has fallen in only two regions: the amalgamation of Taranaki, Wanganui  and the Manawatu regions and in the Eastern Coast region.

Table 15 – Training Opportunities participation by TEC region as proportion of HLFS unemployment at 30 June 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Region	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Northland	21.7	27.3	33.6	22.8	22.3	33.1	35.0	28.5	34.4
Auckland	16.4	18.2	18.2	17.3	19.3	20.1	18.1	18.9	17.4
Bay of Plenty	17.5	21.4	24.3	18.9	20.7	22.0	32.7	32.6	32.3
Waikato	14.1	18.7	19.2	18.7	18.9	26.6	22.8	22.3	19.4
Eastern	31.2	25.7	28.1	31.3	29.0	26.0	23.7	23.6	26.7
Taranaki/Wanganui /Manawatu	23.4	20.8	27.5	23.5	23.1	23.0	14.3	12.9	13.1
Wellington	12.4	15.1	17.3	15.0	13.1	14.5	21.9	22.3	22.5
Nelson/Marlborough/West  Coast	22.4	22.1	32.9	26.1	34.0	27.4	34.4	25.3	27.9
Canterbury	12.4	12.9	14.4	14.3	14.4	13.9	15.6	16.6	14.1
Southern	18.0	21.0	24.3	20.7	18.2	19.0	20.0	23.1	23.7
Total	17.2	18.9	21.1	19.0	19.2	20.4	20.9	20.9	20.2

The differences in coverage between regions and the changes across time could reflect a number of factors, such as:

• the higher likelihood of concentrations of people who closely match the Training Opportunities eligibility criteria in the more rural areas;
• any differences in the practices of referral by WINZ case managers between regions
• the concentration of training providers offering Training Opportunities in each region; 
• the changing patterns of long-term unemployment and other eligible conditions within each region; 
• any programme administration (i.e. allocative efficiency and other) differences between the different regions. 
  

4.6. Participation by eligibility

There is a variety of eligibility criteria for Training Opportunities and people can be referred to the programme from a variety of organisations (but mainly through Work and Income New Zealand – see referral agency section below). TEOs may decline entry to the programme for  people who they assess as being unsuitable.

Eligibility criteria for Training Opportunities are set by the Ministry of Social Development in agreement with the TEC. This section examines eligibility at each placement in each year – a succeeding section examines participation by original eligibility criterion of the participant.

Table 16 provides a list of the current eligibility criteria (as at May 2007) and short codes (for convenience, the short code is used in subsequent tables and graphs to signify the eligibility criterion of learners).
 

 Table 16 – Current Training Opportunities eligibility criteria (at May 2007) and category coding

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Eligibility Criteria	Eligibility code
Registered with Work and Income, aged 18 or 19 years, with low qualifications15 and having left school within the last 26 weeks	School  Leaver 18    /19
Registered with Work and Income as an unemployed job seeker for at least 26 weeks, and having low qualifications	WINZ 18 +
Registered with Work and Income for fewer than 26 weeks, or a client of Work and Income with low qualifications and assessed by Work and Income as being at risk of long-term unemployment. This category includes people who have 81 or more credits on the National Qualifications Framework (NQF) but their NZQA record of learning shows fewer than a total of 12 credits in literacy (English) and / or numeracy (mathematics) unit / achievement standards	At Risk
Either: Registered with Work and Income as an unemployed job seeker for at least 26 weeks Or: a youth client aged 16 to 20 years (inclusive) who has been registered as a job seeker for at least 13 weeks and has been assessed by Work and Income as lacking foundation skills  and meeting one of the following criteria: Obtained School Certificate passes in three or more subjects Holder of 81 credits or more (but fewer than 240 credits) on the NQF	Foundation Skills
Registered with Work and Income, granted Refugee Status and holding high qualifications. Refugees with low qualifications must have their eligibility assessed by Work and Income to gain access under the Foundation Skills or At Risk criteria	Refugee
Youth Training learners who have participated on Youth Training in the last three months and have been granted TEC approval to enter Training Opportunities to complete their training	YOUTH
Registered with Work and Income, aged less than 18 with low qualifications, having left or been exempted from school and granted approval by TEC	School Leaver  16/17
Learners re–entering the Training Opportunities programme within six months retain eligibility if they have fewer than 240 credits.	Returning to TO

Other groups of people were also eligible to participate in Training Opportunities in previous years, but eligibility has been refocused and some of these groups are no longer specifically eligible to participate, although they could be eligible under the new broad At Risk and Foundation Skills categories. These include: Domestic Purposes Benefit and Widows Benefit recipients (DPB and WB); clients of WorkBridge; and ex–prisoners (Justice).

Table 17 shows the distribution of participation by eligibility criteria over the period. The At Risk and Foundation Skills criteria were introduced in 2003, replacing the specific WorkBridge; DPB and WB and Justice categories in response to the recommendations contained in the report of the  Building Futures Review to:

• Retain the current criteria which focus on long-term jobseekers and school leavers with no or low qualifications, and provide priority access to some identified beneficiary groups who face multiple barriers to employment
• Focus more exclusively on those who lack qualifications and have experienced difficulty finding sustainable employment
• Widen access so that all who are assessed as being at risk of long-term unemployment, due to lack of foundation skills, gain immediate access rather than waiting until they have been employed for a period. 
  

The At Risk group has grown steadily in relation to the other groups and remains the largest. The WINZ 18+ group has dropped to approximately half its 2002 proportion; however, some learners within this group may have been re–categorised as At Risk after 2002. The second largest group are those who re–enter Training Opportunities within six months.

Table 17 – Training Opportunities participation by eligibility category 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Criteria group	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Returning to TO	35.8	29.3	29.5	29.8	31.9	31.7	34.0	32.7	34.7
WINZ 18+	31.8	36.9	35.5	32.1	17.4	14.0	10.5	10.8	13.7
At Risk	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	39.3	42.3	42.5	43.4	43.9
WorkBridge	12.7	14.6	15.3	16.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DPB & WB	8.9	7.4	7.3	8.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Foundation Skills	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	7.3	8.9	10.1	8.1	4.6
Youth Training	5.0	5.5	6.7	7.6	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.5	0.2
Exception/Other	3.1	3.5	3.6	3.4	0.6	0.6	1.0	3.2	1.8
School Leaver  18/19 yrs	1.4	1.5	1.0	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.6	0.8
REFUGEE	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1
School Leaver  16/17 yrs	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.3
JUSTICE	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Table 18 shows the original eligibility for each learner active in Training Opportunities while Table 17 showed the criteria at each placement (learners may participate in the programme multiple times). The WINZ 18+ group were the most prevalent until the change in criteria in 2003, when the At Risk category learners became the largest group. The Foundation Skills group appears to have reached a proportionality plateau in 2005 and has subsequently been in decline.
 

 Table 18 – Training Opportunities participation by original eligibility category 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Criteria Group	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
WINZ 18+	45.9	50.5	50.4	45.9	30.1	22.6	16.9	16.4	20.0
AT RISK	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	43.7	58.5	63.6	64.4	66.1
WorkBridge	18.7	20.4	21.5	24.2	6.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1
DP&WB	12.2	10.9	10.2	11.3	2.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
Foundation Skills	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8.1	11.8	14.6	12.5	8.6
Youth Training	7.1	7.5	9.1	10.1	3.7	1.7	1.2	0.9	0.5
Exception/Other	4.0	4.8	5.0	4.9	1.8	1.2	1.4	3.8	3.1
SL18/19	2.2	2.4	1.6	1.5	1.4	0.9	0.6	0.8	1.1
REFUGEE	1.3	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.1
UNKNOWN	5.2	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SL 16/17	2.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.5
JUSTICE	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

 

4.7. Participation by educational history

Participants are asked to provide details of their educational history in order to determine their eligibility to participate in Training Opportunities. Table 19 illustrates that the majority of participants in Training Opportunities do indeed have low or no qualifications.

Of interest is the relative change between the proportion with no qualifications and those with credits at level 1 only: the first category was by far the largest in 1999, but has declined in prominence as the latter category has grown. This may be a consequence of a reduction in the number of learners who leave school with no or low qualifications in recent years; however, as Table 11 shows, only 15 percent or so or learners in Training Opportunities enter at ages 16 and 18 years – the group that would be most sensitive to this change. Table 11 also shows that the 19 to 24 year old group is the largest group (at 29 percent) and the younger members of this group may be driving some of this change.

 Table 19 – Training Opportunities participation by educational history 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Educational History	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
No formal secondary school qualifications or less than 12 credits at level 1	66.6	65.4	63.9	60.8	58.6	56.9	52.0	46.0	41.9
School Certificate or 12 or more credits at level 1 or above	23.3	23.6	24.6	27.0	30.1	31.4	35.6	43.6	49.2
Sixth Form Certificate or 12 or more credits at level 2 or above	4.9	5.0	4.6	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.4	1.5	1.2
University  Entrance or National Certificate Level 2	1.6	2.0	2.3	3.3	3.4	3.9	4.8	4.8	3.1
Higher School Certificate  or 12 to 39 credits    at level 3 or above, Bursary Exam A or B Bursary, Scholarship	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.5	1.6
Trade    Certificate	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2
Degree	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2
Unknown/Other	1.1	1.3	1.7	1.5	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.9	2.5

4.8. Participation by employment history

Training Opportunities participants are also questioned on their employment history. Table 20 shows participation by individuals’ immediate history of employment, illustrating relative stability between the proportions of categories across the 1999 to 2007 period.

The largest group of learners (40 percent on average) have worked full-time for one year or more before entering Training Opportunities. A large proportion (around 26 percent) have only ever worked in part-time employment.

The proportion who have never worked in paid employment has fallen from 20 percent in 1999 to 17 percent in 2007. This drop may be a consequence of the high labour force participation rate, low unemployment rates and associated tight labour market conditions experienced in New Zealand  during the 2002 to 2006 period.

Table 20 – Training Opportunities participation by employment history 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Employment History	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
Unknown	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
Never Worked in Paid Employment	20.1	20.5	19.6	18.1	17.5	18.7	18.1	16.8	16.7
Only Worked Part Time	26.1	26.8	27.3	26.3	25.5	24.9	25.5	26.2	26.3
Worked Full Time for less than 1 year	13.9	13.8	14.8	15.4	16.3	15.7	15.9	15.3	15.4
Worked Full    Time for 1 year or more	39.9	38.9	38.4	40.1	40.7	40.6	40.4	41.6	41.5

4.9. Participation by referral agency

Tertiary education organisations offering Training Opportunities courses are required to record the referring agency of each participant. Participants can be referred to the programme by any number of agencies, including by Work and Income New Zealand (WINZ); the Training Provider; Non–Enrolment Truancy Service (NETS); as well as by the participant themselves, and others. They are then assessed against the eligibility criteria to see if they qualify to participate on the programme.

Table 21 shows participation in Training Opportunities by referral agency and year. Referrals in 1999 seem to be highly biased towards the learner – this may be a transfer issue from the old Training Opportunities. Taking trends from 2002 onwards to allow for this, nevertheless, shows a decreasing tendency for participants to be referred by ‘Self’ and an increase in the proportion who are referred into the programme by WINZ, particularly between 2005 and 2007. Referrals by Workbridge dropped away significantly between 2002 and 2003 while referrals by Training Providers have increased from 2000 and are now approximately 15 percent of referrals.

Table 21 – Training Opportunities participation by referral agency 1999 to 2007

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.
Referral Agency	1999       (%)	2000       (%)	2001       (%)	2002       (%)	2003       (%)	2004       (%)	2005       (%)	2006       (%)	2007       (%)
SELF	84.2	37.3	33.5	33.3	43.1	39.2	37.9	23.5	21.3
WINZ	15.1	29.3	30.2	29.3	34.8	38.2	39.3	53.0	56.6
Workbridge	0.6	15.7	16.4	18.5	1.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.1
School	0.0	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.7
NZ Immigration Service	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ministry of Education	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ministry of Justice	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Training Provider	0.0	9.6	11.8	12.4	14.0	15.3	15.4	14.6	14.5
OTHER	0.0	7.3	7.1	5.4	6.2	5.8	6.1	7.9	6.5
NETS	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
Child, Youth and Family services	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Footnotes

7. In this paper, ‘participation’ in Training Opportunities is deemed to occur if a person is placed in a programme in a year. Placements in each year are counted for distinct individuals, that is, if a person is placed into a programme more than once in a year, the person is counted only once. ‘Participation’ and ‘placement’ are used interchangeably.
8. Defined in the HLFS as having no qualifications / not specified, or 5th Form (Year 11) or under, as their highest qualification.
   
9. For analytical purposes, the measures of participation may differ slightly from measures published by the TEC.
   
10. Training Opportunities participant data applies to full-calendar-year participation by learners, while numbers of unemployed and externally-sourced statistics generally apply to a single date within each calendar year (usually 30 June). This method was chosen because of the shorter periods of learning compared to other forms of provider-based tertiary education (half of all placements (48 percent) last for twelve or fewer weeks on average). This method potentially inflates the coverage rates provided, but is constant across years, so is a valid measure for relativity purposes.
    
11. Unemployment-related benefits are Work and Income New Zealand unemployment benefits, payable to registered job seekers. Further definition can be found in MSD, 2008.
12. See section 3.6 below for explanation of Training Opportunities eligibility criteria.
13. Asian learners are aggregated into ‘Others’ in the HLFS data this table is calculated from.
14. Regional identification is based on the coverage of the TEC’s regional office structure. These roughly correspond to HLFS Regional Council areas, making a comparison between them possible.
15. ‘Low Qualifications’ are defined by the TEC as:
    
    • the learner sat School Certificate and has fewer than three passes
    • the learner has not sat School Certificate, and has fewer than 81 credits at level 1 and/or a combined total of fewer than 81 credits across all levels on the National Qualifications Framework (NQF). This includes all credits that the learner has achieved, including those gained while at school or in other training programmes.
      
    The TEC also considers a learner to have low qualifications if the learner has fewer than 12 credits in English (literacy) and/or mathematics (numeracy) at National Certificate of Education Achievement (NCEA) or NQF level 1.
    
16. Ministry of Education, 2002