Cross-strategy indicators – Tertiary Education Strategy monitoring 2009

7. Success in tertiary education

This section looks at student success within tertiary education. It starts with moving from school to tertiary education and then covers participation, retention, completion and progression. Moving from school and participation in tertiary education covers both provider-based and work-based education. For retention, completion and progression. separate information is provided for provider-based and for work-based learning.

From school to tertiary education

Seventy-eight percent of 2005 school leavers entered tertiary education by the end of 2007.

A third of these leavers studied in level 1 to 3 certificates, with the next largest group studying at bachelors level.

Thirteen percent of school leavers went into industry training within two years. Included in this figure are 4 percent of school leavers who went into modern apprenticeships.

Figure 7.1: Proportion of 2005 school leavers entering tertiary education within one or two years by level of qualification

Note: Includes only students who have attained National Certificate of Educational Achievement or National Qualifications Framework credits at school.


The proportion of New Zealand young people who are in tertiary study is higher than the OECD average. However, New Zealand has a higher proportion of students who leave school from 16 onwards and do not go on to tertiary study.

This situation is partly due to a strong youth labour market, which has allowed more young people to go straight to employment. It also reflects lower expectations in New Zealand for all young people to ‘complete’ secondary and undertake some tertiary-level education.

Figure 7.2: School and tertiary participation rates, 2006

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a glance 2008.

 

Asian school leavers were much more likely to enter degree studies than students from other ethnic groups.

European school leavers were equally likely to enter either degree studies or level 1 to 3 certificates.

Māori and Pasifika school leavers were more likely to enter level 1 to 3 certificates. They have low participation in degree studies.

Figure 7.3: Proportion of 2005 school leavers entering tertiary education within one or two years by ethnic group and level of qualification

Note: Includes only students who have attained National Certificate of Educational Achievement or National Qualifications Framework credits at school.

Participation in tertiary education

Growth in participation in tertiary education has levelled off since 2005. Most of the growth had previously been at levels 1 to 4, which has been constrained by tighter funding rules.

Participation in industry training has increased steadily since 2003.

At postgraduate level, participation has remained constant for masters degrees and increased for doctorates.

Figure 7.4: Participation rates in tertiary education by qualification level

Note: Includes both provider-based students and industry trainees.

Enrolment rates measure the proportion of the population enrolled in education, including school and tertiary study.

New Zealand has a lower enrolment rate for 15 to 19 year olds than the OECD average and most other countries with a similar education system.

New Zealand’s enrolment rates in older age groups are higher than the OECD average, and the other countries shown, with the exception of Australia.

Figure 7.5: International comparison of education enrolment rates by age 2006

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a glance 2008.

The highest rates of tertiary participation in 2008 were by people aged 18 to 19.

People aged 25 and over were more likely to participate in level 1 to 4 certificates than in higher-level qualifications.

Figure 7.6: Participation rates by age group and level of qualification 2007

Note: Includes both provider-based students and industry trainees.

For all ethnic groups, participation rates of 18 to 19 year olds in level 4 to 7 certificates and diplomas decreased in 2008.

European 18 to 19 year olds had the highest level of participation. Asian 18 to 19 year olds had the lowest level of participation.

Figure 7.7: Participation rates for 18 to 19 year olds in level 4 to 7 certificates and diplomas by ethnic group

Note: Includes both provider-based students and industry trainees.

Participation rates of 25 to 39 year olds in level 4 to 7 certificates and diplomas have been decreasing for all ethnic groups, except for Pasifika.

Māori 25 to 39 year olds had the highest rates of participation. Asian 25 to 39 years olds had the lowest rates of participation.

Figure 7.8: Participation rates for 25 to 39 year olds in level 4 to 7 certificates and diplomas by ethnic group

Note: Includes both provider-based students and industry trainees.

The proportion of the Asian population aged 18 to 19 enrolled as domestic students in bachelors degrees has been steadily increasing.

The proportions for other ethnic groups have remained fairly steady, with Māori and Pasifika having the lowest participation rates.

Figure 7.9: Participation rates for 18 to 19 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Participation rates for 25 to 39 year olds at bachelors level have been fairly close across ethnic groups.

Overall, participation at this level has decreased, as labour market opportunities improved in the period to 2007.

Figure 7.10: Participation rates for 25 to 39 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

First-year retention at providers

First-year retention rates of full-time students have been higher at bachelors level and above.

Rates have remained fairly steady from 2001 to 2007 for students studying up to bachelors level.

There has been an increase in retention rates for students studying at postgraduate levels.

Figure 7.11: First-year retention rates by level of qualification

For certificates and diplomas, first-year retention rates for full-time students have been similar across age groups, with the exception of under 18 year olds.

For bachelors degrees, retention rates have been higher for students aged under 20.

Figure 7.12: First-year retention rates by age group 2007

European and Asian 18 to 19 year olds had the highest first-year retention rates in level 5 to 7 diplomas.

Retention rates for Māori students have been much lower. The rates for Pasifika students have decreased, as participation has increased (refer Figure 7.7).

Figure 7.13: First-year retention rates for 18 to 19 year olds in level 5 to 7 diplomas by ethnic group

European and Asian 25 to 39 year olds had the highest first-year retention rates in level 5 to 7 diplomas.

Māori students had the lowest retention rates in this age group and level. Rates for Pasifika students have fluctuated.

Figure 7.14: First-year retention rates for 25 to 39 year olds in level 5 to 7 diplomas by ethnic group

Asian 18 to 19 year olds had the highest first-year retention rates in bachelors degrees, followed by Europeans.

Māori and Pasifika 18 to 19 year olds had had the lowest first-year retention rates. Their rates have been decreasing.

Figure 7.15: First-year retention rates for 18 to 19 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Asian and European 25 to 39 years olds had the highest first-year retention rates in bachelors degrees.

Māori and Pasifika 25 to 39 year olds had the lowest rates.

Across all ethnic groups, first-year retention rates have been increasing slightly, at the same time as participation rates have decreased (refer Figure 7.10).

Figure 7.16: First-year retention rates for 25 to 39 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Five-year completion at providers

For below-degree-level qualifications, just over half of full-time students completed a qualification within five years.

The rate of completion for masters degrees has increased.

The low five-year completion rate for doctorates reflects the longer duration of these qualifications. More than half of doctoral students complete within eight years.

Figure 7.17: Five-year completion rates by level by starting year

The OECD has just started to compile information on completion rates across countries.

Compared with similar countries that provide data for this indicator, New Zealand’s full-time completion rate at bachelors level is comparable with that of the Netherlands and Norway.

The part-time completion rate is slightly lower. This, in part, reflects greater access to part-time study in New Zealand. In the Netherlands and Norway, 10 to 15 percent of bachelors students are part-time, compared with almost 60 percent in New Zealand.

Figure 7.18: International comparison of bachelors degree completion rates 2005

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a glance 2008.

For certificates and diplomas, five-year completion rates of full-time students have not varied greatly by age, with the exception of under 18 year olds

For bachelors degrees, completion rates were much higher for learners who started study under 20 years of age.

Figure 7.19: Five-year completion rates by age group, 2004 starters

European 18 to 19 year olds had the highest five-year completion rates in level 5 to 7 diplomas.

Completion rates for Pasifika students were lowest.

Rates have been increasing for all ethnic groups except for Māori.

Figure 7.20: Five-year completion rates for 18 to 19 year olds in level 5 to 7 diplomas by ethnic group

Asian 25 to 39 year olds had the highest five-year completion rates in level 5 to 7 diplomas.

Māori students had the lowest completion rates in this age group and level.

Rates have been fairly steady for all ethnic groups.

Figure 7.21:  Five-year completion rates for 25 to 39 year olds in level 5 to 7 diplomas by ethnic group

European 18 to 19 year olds had the highest five-year completion rates in bachelors degrees, followed by Asians.

Māori and Pasifika 18 to 19 year olds had had the lowest five-year completion rates.

Figure 7.22: Five-year completion rates for 18 to 19 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

European 25 to 39 years olds had the highest five-year completion rates in bachelors degrees. Rates for Asian students in this age group have been increasing.

Māori and Pasifika 25 to 39 year olds had the lowest rates.

Figure 7.23: Five-year completion rates for 25 to 39 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Progression to higher-level study at providers

Five-year progression rates have increased for students starting level 1 to 3 certificates.

At higher levels, rates have been more or less steady.

Figure 7.24: Five-year progression to a higher level of study by level of starting qualification  

At all levels, students aged 18 to 19 when they started study were more likely than other students to progress higher-level study. This pattern is more apparent in level 1 to 3 certificates and bachelors degrees.

Students entering study under the age of 18 were less likely to progress than older students.

Figure 7.25: Five-year progression to a higher level by age group for students staring in 2006

Asian 18 to 19 year olds had the highest five-year progression rates from level 1 to 3 certificates. This rate has increased significantly.

Progression rates have been fairly even across other ethnic groups.

Figure 7.26: Five-year progression to a higher level  for 18 to 19 year olds in level 1 to 3 certificates by ethnic group

Māori 25 to 39 year olds had the highest five-year progression rate from level 1 to 3 certificates.

Asian students had the lowest rate in 2002 and have since improved to be almost level with Māori.

Figure 7.27: Five-year progression to a higher level for 25 to 39 year olds in level 1 to 3 certificates by ethnic group

Asian and European 18 to 19 year olds had the highest five-year progression rates from bachelors degrees. Their rates have been decreasing.

Māori and Pasifika 18 to 19 year olds had the lowest five-year progression rates. Their rates have stayed fairly even.

Figure 7.28: Five-year progression to a higher level for 18 to 19 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Asian 25 to 39 year olds had the highest five-year progression rates from bachelors degrees. Māori and Pasifika 25 to 39 year olds had the lowest rates.

Figure 7.29: Five-year progression to a higher level for 25 to 39 year olds in bachelors degrees by ethnic group

Success in industry training

In 2008, people exiting industry training attained around 40 credits on average. This equates to the minimum size of a National Certificate.

European trainees were likely to exit with a larger number of credits, on average, than learners in other ethnic groups.

Figure 7.30: Average number of credits achieved per final programme exit

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

The estimated five-year programme completion rate for industry trainees has been under 30 percent. This is lower than the provider-based completion rate for level 1 to 4 certificates of 44 percent.

Māori and Pasifika trainees were less likely to complete than European trainees, and women were more likely than men to complete their programmes within five years.

Figure 7.31: Five-year programme completion rate for industry trainees

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.

On average, around 35 percent of learners achieved a national certificate by the time they exit industry training.

Rates of attainment were higher for Europeans and Asians until 2006. In 2007 and 2008, the differences between ethnic groups were minimal.
 

Figure 7.32: Average number of certificates per final programme exit 2008

Source: Tertiary Education Commission.