National School Roll Projections

Publication Details

Projections and forecasts of school rolls are used by the Ministry of Education to assess the demand for resources in the school sector.

They support the forecasting of expenditure on teachers’ salaries, schools’ operations grants, and student allowances, as part of the Government’s five-year budget forecasts. The forecast rolls are snapshots; they project primary year-levels as at 1 July and secondary year-levels as at 1 March. The production of a range of projections allows for exploration of medium and long-term effects of different scenarios or assumptions, while forecasts (based on preferred projections) are a best estimate of enrolment numbers in the short term

This report includes a breakdown of the major changes between the current forecast and the previous forecast. A brief description of the methodology used in this forecast is also provided.

Author(s): Various

Date Published: Various

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National School Roll Projections (2008 Update)

The 2008 National School Roll Projections were completed in January 2009 and, overall, have been increased slightly compared to the previous projections. This is mainly due to actual birth numbers in 2008 being higher than predicted by Statistics New Zealand’s medium projection.

Author(s): Central Forecasting & Modelling Unit [Ministry of Education]

Date Published: May 2009

Students Going to Schools in 2009

The purpose of this report is to provide an outline of actual and projected trends in student enrolments both regionally and nationally in 2009.

Author(s): Central Forecasting & Modelling Unit [Ministry of Education]

Date Published: February 2009

National School Roll Projections: November 2007 Update

This report describes the latest projections of the number of full-time equivalent students enrolled in New Zealand schools.

Author(s): Central Forecasting and Modelling Unit, Ministry of Education

Date Published: April 2008

Students Going to School in 2007

The purpose of this report is to provide an outline of actual and projected trends in student enrolments both regionally and nationally.

Author(s): Central Forecasting & Modelling Unit, Ministry of Education

Date Published: February 2007

National School Roll Projections: July 2006 Update

This report describes the latest forecast of the number of students enrolled in New Zealand’s schools. In this update, the 1 July 2006 roll survey forms the new base for the primary level forecast, and the 1 March 2006 roll survey forms the new base for the secondary level forecast. The roll driver assumptions have been revised due to new birth and migration information from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ).

Author(s): Linda Daniel

Date Published: October 2006

Students at school in 2006

The purpose of this report "Students at School in 2006" is to provide summary statistics on teacher numbers, funding, and actual and projected enrolments numbers. A regional breakdown of the estimated number of new entrant students starting school at the beginning of the school year is also provided.

Author(s): Demographics & Statistical Analysis Unit, Ministry of Education

Date Published: February 2006

National School Roll Projections: July 2005 Update

This report describes the latest forecast of the number of students enrolled in New Zealand’s schools. In this update, the 1 July 2005 roll survey forms the new base for the primary level forecast, and the 1 March 2005 roll survey forms the new base for the secondary level forecast. The roll driver assumptions have been revised due to new birth and migration information from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ).

Author(s): Amy Galvin

Date Published: October 2005

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