Quarterly Birth and Migration Report: March 2009 Quarter

Executive Summary

Births

This was the highest number of live births in a March year since 1962, when 65,800 births were registered.¹ The latest figure is 10 %higher than the average of 58,470 births per year over the last decade. Births have been increasing every March year since 2003, with a particularly rapid increase between 2007 and 2008.

In the quarter ending 31 March 2009, 15,560 live births were registered, a decrease of 1.2% on the March 2009 quarter. This, along with the fact that birth numbers are at there lowest since the December 2006 quarter, is evidence that birth levels may have peaked.

Migration

In the year ending 31 March 2009 we saw the highest level of permanent and long-term (PLT) departures of 0 to 17 year-olds from New Zealand since 1992.² With 750 more departures and 560 more arrivals than in 2008, we have seen a small decline in net PLT migration from 1,510 in the March 2008 year to 1,320 in the March 2009 year.

In the quarter ending 31 March 2009 there was an overall net PLT migration inflow of 950. This consists of a net inflow of 200 pre-school-age children, 120 primary-school-age children and 640 secondary-school-age children.

Births

Table 1: Live births for the year and quarter ending March 2008-2009

	Year ending			Quarter ending
	March 2008	March 2009	Difference	March 2008	March 2009	Difference
Births	63,252	64,159	907	15,744	15,560	-184

 

 

Historical Overview of New Zealand Births

The increasing number of live births registered in New Zealand continued in the March 2009 year.  In the year ending March 2006 there were 58,441 live births and since then the number has increased every year to reach 64,159 in the year ending March 2009.  However, the rate of increase appears to have slowed over the last 12 months.  In the year ending March 2008 there was an 4.6% increase in live births compared to the March 2007 year, whereas in 2009 there was only a 1.4% increase on 2008 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Live births registered in New Zealand; year ending March 1993-2009

 

Notes:
(i) Birth data are based on live births registered in New Zealand to mothers resident in New Zealand by date of registration.  Excludes late registrations under Section 16 of the Births, Deaths and Marriages Registration Act 1995 (i.e. births that were not registered in the ordinary way at the time the birth occurred).
(ii) Registered births for the March to December 1998 quarters are lower than expected, because of a small change to the rate at which births were registered during 1998.

 

The main factor in the increasing number of live births registered in recent years is the growing total fertility rate.  At the March 2009 year the total fertility rate was, provisionally, 2.18 (compared with 2.15 for 2008), this equals the most recent peak in the March 1991 year.  The fertility level is above the estimated rate required for long term population replacement without migration (2.1 births per woman) for the second year running.  However, it should be noted that fertility rates would need to be consistently above this level for many years in order to be deemed capable of naturally replacing the population (see Appendix for further information).

There were 15,560 live births registered in the quarter ending 31 March 2009, 1.2% less than the 15,744 births registered in the March 2008 quarter.  In comparison, the March 2008 quarter saw a 4.8% decrease on 2007.  The number of live births registered in the March 2009 quarter has also decreased from 15,833 births in the December 2008 quarter.  This suggests that the recent high birth levels may have reached a peak.

New Zealand Births by Region (March Years)

The combined number of live births in the four main centres (Auckland, Canterbury, Wellington and Waikato) accounted for over two-thirds of all live births registered in New Zealand in the March 2009 year.  The total number of live births registered in Auckland (22,960) equates to over a third of the national total, remaining consistent with the proportion in 2008.

In the year ending 31 March 2009, 12 of the 16 New Zealand Regional Councils had an increase in live births compared to 2008 and 10 of these had an increase greater than the national average (1.4%).  These were West Coast (13.5%), Gisborne (10.9%), Marlborough (5.9%), Wellington (4.7%), Northland (3.5%), Taranaki (3.5%), Waikato (3.3%), Southland (3.2%), Hawkes Bay (2.7%) and Bay of Plenty (2.5%).  While the West Coast region experienced a 13.5% increase in live births in the March 2009 year, this only equated to an increase of 54 births.  Waikato, on the other hand, experienced an increase of only 3.3% and yet the numerical increase was 205, the second largest numerical increase after Wellington (+314).  Five regions saw a decrease in births compared to 2008.  The decrease in births seen in the other 4 Regional Councils was small, with the largest numerical decrease (-21) in Tasman.  

Since 2006 live births registered in the March year in New Zealand have increased by 9.8%, with 5,718 more births in the March 2009 year than in the March 2006 year.  The largest percentage increases in births during this period have been in West Coast (26.0%), Nelson (20.7%) and Marlborough (13.9%).  The largest numerical increases over the same period were in Auckland (+1,901), Wellington (+781), Waikato (+768) and Canterbury (+540), which is unsurprising given that these regions have the largest resident populations.

At a Territorial Authority (TA) level, Manukau (6,826), Auckland (6,560) and Christchurch (4,976) had the highest number of live births in the March 2009 year.  Of the 73 New Zealand TAs, 46 experienced an increase in births in the March 2009 year compared to 2008 and, of these, 41 saw a percentage increase greater than the national average.  The largest numerical increases were seen in Waitakere (+144), Hamilton (+139) and Papakura (+93).  Between the March 2006 and March 2009 years the majority of TAs experienced an increase in births, the exceptions being Thames-Coromandel, Tasman, Tararua and Whakatane.  During this period the largest percentage increases occurred in Grey (+46.6%), South Taranaki (+29.9%) and South Wairarapa (+29.6%).  However, the numerical increases in these TAs were small compared to the largest numerical increases, which occurred in Waitakere (+512), Manukau (+509) and Hamilton (+438).

Migration

Table 2: Net migration by education age group for the year and quarter ending March 2008-2009

Notes: * Positive means there was a net migration inflow; negative represents a migration outflow. ** Positive means net migration has increased compared to the same period last year.
Education age group	Year ending			Quarter ending
	March    2008 *	March 2009    *	Difference    **	March    2008 *	March    2009 *	Difference    **
Pre-School	57	221	164	-161	196	357
Primary    School	352	-168	-520	-128	117	245
Secondary    School	1,096	1,262	166	552	635	83
Total	1,505	1,315	-190	263	948	685

Historical Overview of New Zealand Migration (March Years)

Net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration for school-age and pre-school-age children has varied considerably over the past decade, with a low of -853 in 2001 and a high of 12,198 in 2003.  For the year ending 31 March 2009, we saw the highest level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year-olds since 1992 (18,084) and net PLT migration has fallen from 1,505 in 2008 to 1,315 in 2009.

Figure 2: Arrivals, departures and net PLT migration of 0 to 17 year-olds;
years ending March 1992-2009 

 

Secondary-school-age (13 to 17 year-olds) migration shows distinctive patterns compared to other age groups.  This group has experienced consistent levels of net PLT migration inflows, even in years where other age groups experienced net migration outflows.  This is illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Net PLT migration by age group; years ending March 1992-2009

 

Arrival Sources and Departure Destinations (March Quarter)

Net PLT migration does not always provide the full picture.  For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures.  However, high arrivals could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with different languages and cultural backgrounds.

For the March 2009 quarter, 5,889 pre-school-age and school-age children arrived in New Zealand and 4,941 departed overseas.  The overall effect was a net PLT migration inflow of 948.  Asia has replaced Oceania as the major source of migration arrivals (representing 34.8% of overall arrivals) and Oceania is still the most popular departure destination (representing 76.6% of overall departures).

Table 3: Permanent and long-term migration by source/destination; 0 to 17 year-olds, March 2009 quarter

Region	Arrivals	Departures	Net Migration
Oceania	1,846	3,783	-1,937
Asia	2,049	411	1,638
Europe	966	381	585
Americas	381	206	175
Other	647	160	487
Total	5,889	4,941	948

Looking at the individual country levels, the Australia topped the arrivals chart with 919 pre-school-age and school-age PLT migrants arriving in New Zealand in the March 2009 quarter.  Australia was also by far the most popular departure destination with 3,560 0 to 17 year-olds migrating there.  Table 4 below shows the top 5 arrival sources and departure destinations in the March 2009 quarter.

Table 4. Top 5 arrival sources and departure destinations; 0 to 17 year-olds, March 2009 quarter

Country	Arrivals	Country	Departures
Australia	919	Australia	3,560
United Kingdom	684	United Kingdom	221
Fiji	417	Korea, Republic of	168
Korea, Republic of	326	United States of      America	101
China, People's Republic of	317	Samoa	55

School-Age and Pre-School-Age Migration (March Quarter)

Overall, we are seeing similar levels of migration movements in all three age groups compared to the same quarter last year.  All age groups are showing a downward trend in net PLT migration. 

Pre-School PLT Migration

For the quarter ending March 2009, net PLT migration of pre-school-age children (0 to 4 year-olds) was +196 overall, representing a net inflow (Figure 4).  This is higher than the migration inflow experienced in March 2008 quarter (with an overall net migration of -161) and is the highest level of net migration since 2004.  The increase is mostly due to a higher level of arrivals (187 more compared to the same time last year).

Figure 4: Monthly net PLT migration of pre-school-age migrants; 2006-2009

Primary School PLT Migration

For the quarter ending March 2009, net PLT migration of primary-school-age children (5 to 12 year-olds) was +117 overall, representing a net inflow (Figure 5).  This compares to a migration outflow of 128 experienced in the March 2008 quarter and is considerably lower than the high levels of migration inflow seen in 2002 and 2003.  The increase is due to a lower level of departures (295 less) and a similar level of arrivals (-50).

Figure 5: Monthly net PLT migration of primary-age migrants; 2006-2009

Secondary School PLT Migration

For the quarter ending March 2009, net PLT migration of secondary-school-age children (13 to 17 year-olds) was +635 overall (Figure 6).  This is greater than the level of inflow experienced in the March 2008 quarter (with an overall net migration of +552) The level is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration inflow seen in 2002 and 2003.

Figure 6: Monthly net PLT migration of secondary-age migrants; 2006-2009

 

Appendix: Definitions

Total fertility rate is the average number of live births that a woman would have during her life if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given period (usually a year).  It excludes the effect of mortality.

Replacement level fertility is the average number of children a woman needs to have to produce one daughter who survives to childbearing age.  Replacement level fertility is also described as the total fertility rate required for the population to replace itself in the long term, without migration.  The internationally accepted replacement level is 2.1 births per woman.

Permanent and long-term arrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and long-term departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net permanent and long-term migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures.  Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-age migrants does not translate directly into the number of extra pupils in schools.  Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all.  A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period.  Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow occurs when arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow occurs when departures exceed arrivals.

Footnotes

1. Note that births data from 1991 onwards are based on live births registered in New Zealand by date of registration to mothers resident in New Zealand.  Before 1991, births data are based on births registered in New Zealand to mothers resident in New Zealand and mothers visiting from overseas by date of registration.
   
2. January 1992 was the first month in which the ministry received PLT data from Statistics New Zealand. Year ending December 1992 is the first year of complete data.