2008 Birth Report

In the year ended June 2008 the number of live births registered in New Zealand was 64,145, an increase of 4.1% from the year ended June 2007.  This was the highest number of live births in a June year since 1972.  The number of live births has been increasing every June year since 2002, with a particularly high rate of increase since 2006.  This rapid rise in births will increase the number of 3 to 5 year olds in the population over the next few years and consequently impact on roll growth at early childhood services and schools that offer primary school education.  The actual number of live births registered in the year ended June 2008 is significantly greater than predicted by Statistics New Zealand (2006-base, medium series).  Therefore their projections for the numbers of 3 to 5 year olds in the population in future years will be under-estimated. 

In the quarter ended June 2008 the number of live births registered in New Zealand was 16,650, a rise of 5.7% from the quarter ended June 2007.  This was the highest number of birth registrations for any June quarter.  However, the percentage increase in births for the quarter ended June 2008 is smaller than the percentage increase for the quarter ended June 2007.  The same applies to the year ended figures and this is a possible indication that the rate of growth is slowing.

Forecasts of the growth in the number of 3-4 and 5 year olds in the population in 2011 and 2013, respectively, based on the number of births in the June 2007 and 2008 years show that certain Territorial Authorities (TAs) will experience larger growth than others.  The TAs most impacted will be Queenstown-Lakes, the central Auckland region TAs, Nelson, Tauranga, Hamilton, Central Otago, Selwyn and New Plymouth.