Cross-strategy indicators – Tertiary Education Strategy monitoring 2009

3. Tertiary education in New Zealand - cross strategy indicators

Cross-strategy indicators provide enduring measures of the overall health of the tertiary education system. These indicators cover the outcomes against which the broader changes resulting from the tertiary education strategy and government policy can be monitored. Changes in these indicators also provide an alert to possible unintended consequences (positive and negative) of the changes made relating to strategy and policy.

Knowledge and skills in the adult population

English-based literacy skills for 25 to 34 year olds have increased over the last 10 years. This age group rated lower on their numeracy skills than on their literacy skills. European New Zealanders and New Zealand-born Asians generally have higher English-based literacy skills than New Zealanders in other ethnic groups.

From 2001 to 2006, there were significant gains in the te reo Māori proficiency of Māori aged 25 to 34, with fewer people having little or no knowledge of the language.

The proportion of the population aged 25 to 39 with a tertiary qualification has been steadily increasing. In 2008, 28 percent held a bachelors degree or higher. This proportion is above the OECD mean, and similar to Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Figure 3.1: Highest educational qualification of the population aged 25 to 39

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey.

People aged 25 to 29 in both the Māori and Pasifika populations are much more likely to have their highest qualification at below-degree level than at degree level and above. While there has been an increase in the proportion in both ethnic groups with degree-level qualifications, the proportion is still substantially lower than that of the total population.

Outcomes of tertiary education

People with bachelors degrees have had significantly higher income than people with lower-level qualifications. Pasifika with bachelors degrees have made considerable gains in income over the last six years.

Māori and Pasifika with qualifications below degree level still had higher unemployment rates than other ethnic groups.

During the period of economic growth to 2007, unemployment rates dropped to similar levels for all people with school or tertiary qualifications. Rates remained higher for those with no educational qualifications. Recent data shows that as overall unemployment increases, the unemployment rate for those with no qualifications is increasing faster than the rate for those with school or tertiary qualifications.

For individuals, there is a greater economic return from undertaking tertiary study direct from school than later in life. However, the returns for adult students with no school qualifications are also significant. The economic returns to government of tertiary education follow a similar pattern and are greater for diploma and above qualifications.

Tertiary education is associated with improved health outcomes. This effect is particularly clear for Māori women.

Research within the tertiary education sector

New Zealand universities account for around 30 percent of the expenditure on research in New Zealand. Their most significant contribution is in the area of developing and applying new knowledge.

Humanities and law, biological sciences and social sciences have the largest number of research staff recognised as of international or national standing.

New Zealand’s tertiary education research output has been increasing relative to world output, as has the recognition of New Zealand tertiary education research. New Zealand universities have an academic impact¹ above the world average in health and medicine.

Research in the tertiary education sector is not restricted to universities. Institutes of technology and polytechnics, wānanga and private training establishments also have research staff. Much of the contribution of these sub-sectors is in the area of applied research and transfer of knowledge.

Success in tertiary education

Seventy-eight percent of 2005 school leavers entered tertiary education within two years of leaving school. A third of school leavers went into level 1 to 3 certificates and the next largest group into bachelors-level study.

New Zealand has a higher proportion of students who leave school from 16 and do not go on to tertiary study, compared with the OECD average. This is due to a combination of a historically strong youth labour market and lower expectations in New Zealand for all young people to ‘complete’ secondary and undertake some tertiary-level education.

After a period of substantial growth, total participation rates in tertiary education have decreased, the decrease being mostly below degree level.

Among 18 to 19 year olds, Europeans and Asians have the highest rates of participation in diplomas and bachelors degrees. There has been little increase in the participation rates at bachelors level for Māori and Pasifika, which remain substantially lower.

In the 25 to 39 year old age group, Europeans and Māori have the highest participation rates in diplomas and participation rates at bachelors level are similar across all ethnic groups. At both levels, participation rates have been decreasing for all ethnic groups.

Figure 3.2: Participation rates in tertiary education by qualification level

First-year retention rates for full-time students have remained steady for qualifications up to bachelors level. There has been increased retention of students in postgraduate qualifications.

For bachelors degrees, retention rates are higher in the younger age groups. Rates are similar across age groups for below-degree-level qualifications, with the exception of under-18 year olds who are less likely to continue in study.

Five-year completion rates for full-time students are higher at bachelors level and above. Completion rates follow a similar pattern to retention rates by age group, with under 18 year olds being less likely to complete certificates and diplomas. Pasifika and Māori students have the lowest completion rates at bachelors level in the 18 to 19 year old age group.

Figure 3.3: Five-year completion rates by age group, 2004 starters

Five-year progression rates have increased for students who started in level 1 to 3 certificates and remained steady for students starting at higher levels.

There has been an increase in five-year progression rates from level 1 to 3 certificates for Asian students. Asian and European students have the highest five-year progression rates from bachelors degrees.

The average number of credits attained by people exiting industry training has been fairly steady. The estimated five-year programme completion rate for industry training is around 30 percent, which is lower than the provider-based completion rate for level 1 to 4 certificates.

Affordability of tertiary education

Average tuition fees have remained stable relative to wages as a result of a policy to limit the maximum fees. New Zealand fees continue to be low by international comparison. There has been moderate growth in the real value of the average student loan balance.

Government expenditure on tertiary education has been growing in real terms. New Zealand’s expenditure on tertiary education as a proportion of GDP is slightly above the OECD average.

Tertiary education organisations

The largest recent growth in student numbers has been in institutes of technology and polytechnics and industry training. These are now the two largest sub-sectors by student numbers.

After a period of considerable growth, the number of international tertiary students in New Zealand decreased: this is due to a range of factors. However, New Zealand still has the second largest proportion of international students, following Australia. New Zealand students studying abroad are most likely to study in Australia, the United States or the United Kingdom.

After a period of financial volatility, the financial performance of institutes of technology and polytechnics and wānanga appears to be improving. The financial performance of universities remains steady and reasonably healthy.

 

Footnote

1. Academic impact is measured by the number of citations per research publication.