Quarterly Migration Report - September 2006 Quarter

Introduction

Analysis looking at migration impacts on education has usually centred on foreign fee paying (FFP) students and New Zealand ’s export education sector. However, the education sector is affected by more than just migrants who choose to come to New Zealand to study as FFP students, but also migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

This is one of a series of quarterly reports intended to give an update of actual external migration statistics for children based on data provided by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). The report comments on the emerging trends and the potential impact on schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand¹ . The information is obtained from the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• actual migration for the September 2006 quarter

• arrivals, departures and net migration for the year to date

• implications for school enrolments

See Appendix for definitions of the terms used in this report.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available February 2007.

 

Overall summary of recent trends in migration

• In the year to September 2006, there has been a net inflow of 4,500 school-age migrants to NZ – around 2,200 more than last year. This increase is mainly attributable to fewer departures and slightly more arrivals in 2006 than in 2005.

• Net permanent and long term (PLT) migration of pre-school-aged and school-age children (0 to 17 year olds) has increased compared to last year, but it is lower than the long term average.

• The low level of net PLT school-aged migrants has resulted from relatively high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures.

• SNZ’s latest long-term migration projections for 2006 were very close to actual school-age migrants. SNZ are expecting higher level school-age migration for 2007.

• The latest National School Roll Projections assume around 4,400 net PLT school-age migrants for 2007.
• This level of school-age migrants translates into around 3,400 enrolments in NZ schools in 2007, with an additional 1,400 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from arrivals of 0 to 4 year olds within the last four years.

 

Part 1 - School-age migration for the September 2006 quarter

As shown in the graphs below, school-age migration continues to track slightly higher than previous years for all age groups.

Pre-school PLT migration

In the September 2006 quarter, net PLT migration of pre-school-aged children (0 to 4 year olds) totalled 315 (a net inflow) (see Figure 1). This compares with a net inflow of 128 for the same period last year — an increase of 187 (or 146 percent). This increase arises from 67 more arrivals and 120 fewer departures than in the September 2005 quarter.

Net PLT migration for this group is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

 

Figure 1 - Monthly net PLT migration of pre-school-aged migrants 2004-2006

 

Primary PLT migration

Net PLT migration of primary-aged children (5 to 12 year olds) is currently tracking above the level seen in 2005. Despite this increase, net PLT migration for this group is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

In the September 2005 quarter, net PLT migration of primary-aged children (5 to 12 year olds) totalled 728 (a net inflow) (see Figure 2). This compares with a net inflow of 492 for the same period last year — an increase of 236 (or 48 percent). This increase arises from 166 more arrivals and 70 fewer departures than the September 2005 quarter.

 

Figure 2 - Monthly net PLT migration of primary-aged migrants 2004-2006

 

Secondary PLT migration

In the September 2006 quarter, net PLT migration of secondary-aged children (13 to 17 year olds) totalled 800 (a net inflow) (see Figure 3). This compares with a net inflow of 553 for the same period last year — an increase of 247 (or 45 percent). This increase arises from 42 more arrivals and 205 fewer departures than in the September 2005 quarter.

Secondary-aged migrants show a distinct seasonal pattern. As shown in Figure 3, arrivals of secondary-aged migrants tend to be high at the beginning of the year and in July. This ties in with the start of the NZ school year and July coincides with the term changes in the school year for other countries.

 

Figure 3 - Monthly net PLT migration of secondary-aged migrants 2004-2006

 

Part 2 - Year to date² arrivals and departures

Net PLT migration has varied dramatically over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1996 and in 2003 ( Figure 4). School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages. However, secondary-aged migrants have shown consistently positive levels of migration, even in years where migration for all ages has been negative.

 

Figure 4 - Net PLT migration for each age group, year to September 2004-2006

 

It is very important to look at inflows and outflows when analysing any changes in net migration. For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures. However, in this scenario the high numbers of migrant children arriving in NZ could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with cultural and language differences. Hence looking at the actual inflows and outflows gives us a more comprehensive picture than net migration alone (see Figure 5).

In the year to September 2006, the level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year olds was high (14,525); with PLT arrivals tracking slightly higher (19,008). Hence net PLT migration is low (4,483), but still higher than last year low point of 2,257.

 

Figure 5 - Arrivals, departures and net PLT migration of 0 to 17 year olds, year to September 2004-2006

 

Part 3 - Implications for school rolls

Latest migration projections

The latest migration projections, produced by SNZ in July 2006, projected a total of 10,500 and 3,950 net PLT migrants of all ages and school-age migrants respectively for the year ended June 2006. This compares well with 10,700 and 3,800 actual net PLT migrants and school–age migrants respectively for the same period.

 

Table 1: Projected and actual migratino for the year ended June 2006

0-17 year olds	Actual	Projected*	% difference**
	3,800	3,950	4%
Total all ages	10,700	10,500	-2%

*Based on SNZ long-term projection, July 2006, Projection Series 5 assuming medium fertility, medium mortality and medium migration.

** The difference between the Actual and Projected migration figures as a proportion of Actual migration figures.

 

Current net PLT migration is in line with that assumed for 2006 in the latest National School Roll Projections.

Net PLT migration statistics give us a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter or leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more³.

In the latest National School Roll Projections (published November 2006), estimates were made of the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year-of-schooling. Actual monthly migration figures since July indicate migration is likely to be similar to that projected.

Table 2 summarises the number of net PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in coming years.

 

Table 2: Projected number of PLT migrants entering NZ schools

Year ended June	Primary* Y1-Y8	Secondary Y9-Y15	Total
2006 (estimated actual)	2,900	1,200	4,100
2007	3,400	1,400	4,800
2008	3,300	1,400	4,700
2009	3,000	1,400	4,400
2010	2,500	1,300	3,800
2011 onwards	2,400	1,200	3,600

Source: July 2006 update of the National School Roll Projections.

* Primary totals include 0 to 4 year old migrants who arrived in NZ in the last four years and who will be turning 5 years old in the projected year.

 

Appendix 1: Definitions

Permanent and long-termarrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and long-term departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and long term migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all. A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow : arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow: departures exceed arrivals.

 

Footnote

1. In this report all arrivals and departures discussed are Permanent and Long-Term (PLT).
2. July through to June in this report.
3. Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all.  

Related Education Counts Documents

For copies of this report relating to other quarters go to the Quarterly Migration Report: Index.

The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to related documents.