Quarterly Migration Report - December 2005 Quarter

Introduction

Analysis looking at migration impacts on education has usually centred on foreign fee paying (FFP) students and New Zealand ’s export education sector. However, the education sector is affected by more than just migrants who choose to come to New Zealand to study as FFP students, but also migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

This is one of a series of quarterly reports intended to give an update of actual external migration statistics for children based on data provided by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). The report comments on the emerging trends and the potential impact on schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand¹ . The information is obtained from the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• actual monthly school-age migration
• arrivals, departures and net migration for the year to date
• implications for school enrolments

See Appendix for definitions of the terms used in this report.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available May 2006.

Overall summary of recent trends in migration

• Actual school-age migration is on track to reach the level assumed for 2006 in the National School Roll Projections.

• This assumed level of school-age migrants translates to around 3,100 enrolments in NZ schools in 2006, with an additional 1,200 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from arrivals of 0 to 4 year olds within the last four years.

• For most of this year, monthly migration of school-age children (0 to 17 year olds) has tracked lower than previous years. However, in this last quarter school-age migration has picked up above that seen last year.

• The recent increase in net migration of school-age children is due to increased arrivals to NZ combined with decreased departures.

• Over the whole year there has been a net inflow of 3,000 school-age migrants to NZ – around 1,900 fewer than last year. This decrease is due an increase in departures from 2004 to 2005.

PART 1 — Monthly school-age migration

As shown in the graphs below, net PLT migration of pre-school, primary, and secondary school aged children in 2005 has generally tracked lower than previous years. However, net PLT migration of these age groups has picked up in this last quarter.

Pre-school PLT migration

For most of this year net PLT migration of pre-school-aged children (0 to 4 year olds) has been lower than previous years. However, since September migration of this age group has picked up and is currently tracking above 2004 levels.

This recent increase in net PLT migration of this age group over last year is due to a combination of more arrivals into NZ and fewer departures.

Figure 1

Primary PLT migration

The net PLT migration of primary-aged migrants has tracked close to 2004 levels for many months, and in December migration of this age group increased above that seen in 2003 and 2004.

This recent increase in net PLT migration of this age group over previous years is due to a combination of more arrivals into NZ and fewer departures.

Figure 2

Secondary PLT migration

The migration of secondary-aged migrants has generally tracked lower than 2004 levels for most of the year. However, in this latest quarter migration of this age group has increased above that seen in 2004.

This recent increase in net PLT migration of this age group is due primarily to decreased departures from NZ.

Secondary-aged migrants show a distinct seasonal pattern. As shown in Figure 3, arrivals of secondary-aged migrants tend to be high in January and July. This ties in with the start of the New Zealand school year and July coincides with the term changes in the school year for other countries.

Figure 3

PART 2 — Year to date² arrivals and departures

Net PLT migration has varied dramatically over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1996 and in 2003 (Figure 4). School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages. However, secondary-aged migrants have shown consistently positive levels of migration, even in years where migration for all ages has been negative.

Figure 4

It is very important to look at inflows and outflows when analysing any changes in net migration. For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures. However, in this scenario the high numbers of migrant children arriving in NZ could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with cultural and language differences. Hence looking at the actual inflows and outflows gives us a more comprehensive picture than net migration alone (see Figure 5).

In the year to December 2005, the level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year olds was high (15,600); with PLT arrivals tracking slightly higher (18,600). Hence net PLT migration is low (3,000).

Figure 5

PART 3 — Implications for school rolls

Current net PLT migration is in line with that assumed for 2006 in the latest National School Roll Projections.

Net PLT migration statistics give us a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter or leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more³.

In the latest National School Roll Projections (produced September 2005), estimates were made of the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year-of-schooling. Actual monthly migration figures since September indicate migration is likely to be similar to that projected.

Table 1 summarises the number of PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in coming years.

Table 1: Projected number of PLT migrants entering NZ schools

Source: July 2005 update of the National School Roll Projections.

* Primary totals include 0 to 4 year old migrants who arrived in NZ in the last four years and who will be turning 5 years old in the projected year.

Definitions

Permanent and long-termarrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and long-term departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and long term migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all. A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow : arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow: departures exceed arrivals.

Footnote

¹ In this report all arrivals and departures discussed are Permanent and Long-Term (PLT).

² January through to December in this report.

³ Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all.

Related Education Counts Documents

For copies of this report relating to other quarters go to the Quarterly Migration Report: Index.

The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to related documents.