Quarterly Migration Report - June 2007 Quarter

Introduction

Analysis looking at migration impacts on education has usually centred on foreign fee paying (FFP) students and New Zealand ’s export education sector. However, the education sector is also affected by migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand¹ . This information is captured from the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• Actual migration for the June 2007 quarter
• Arrivals, departures and net migration for the year-to-date
• Implications for school enrolments

See definitions of the terms used in this report.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available in November 2007.

Overall Summary of Recent Trends in Migration

• In the year to June 2007, there has been a net inflow of 3,700 pre-school-age and school-age migrants (0 to 17 year-olds) into NZ – approximately 150 fewer than in the previous year. This decrease is due to a higher number of departures which exceeds the increase in the number of arrivals.
• The level of net inflow in the year to June 2007 is lower than the long-term average of 5,600.
• SNZ is expecting a higher level of net inflow of school-age migrants in 2008 compared to its projection for 2007. However, actual number of school-age migrants year-to-date was below SNZ’s most recent long-term migration projection.
• The latest National School Roll Projections assumed around 3,600 net PLT school-age migrants for the 2007 schooling year.
• This level of school-age migrants translates into around 3,200 enrolments in NZ schools in 2007, with an additional 1,600 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from the arrivals of 0 to 4 year-olds during the previous four years.

PART 1: School-Age Migration for the June 2007 Quarter

As shown in the graphs below, net PLT migration of pre-school-age (Figure 1) and secondary school-age children (Figure 3) in the June 2007 quarter has tracked reasonably closely to the June 2006 quarter, while net PLT numbers of primary school-age children (Figure 2) has tracked lower compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Pre-School PLT Migration

For the quarter ended June 2007, net PLT migration of pre-school-age children (0 to 4 years-olds) was -111 overall, representing a net outflow (Figure 1). This level is lower than that in the June 2006 quarter (-26). Net PLT migration for this group is considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

Figure 1 - Monthly Net PLT Migration of Pre-School-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

Primary PLT Migration

Net PLT migration of primary school-age children (5 to 12 year-olds) is currently tracking below the level seen in 2006. Net PLT migration for this group is considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2002 and 2003.

In the June 2007 quarter, net PLT migration of primary-age children totalled 8, representing a net migration inflow (Figure 2). This is much lower than the level of inflow experienced during the June 2006 quarter (a net inflow of 329). This decrease is mostly due to higher number of departures seen in 2007, while the level of arrivals has remained stable.

Figure 2 - Monthly Net PLT Migration of Primary-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

Secondary PLT Migration

For the quarter ended June 2007, net PLT migration of secondary school-age children (13 to 17 year-olds) summed to 58 (a net inflow). This is 174 migrants fewer, or 75% lower, than the inflow seen in the June 2006 quarter (Figure 3). This decrease arose from an increased number of departures and a lower number of arrivals compared to the same period in the previous year.

Secondary-age migrants show a distinctive seasonal pattern. For migrants in this age bracket, the number of arrivals tends to be higher at the beginning of the year and in July. The high level of migration inflows in January and February ties in with the start of the NZ schooling year while July, in which the start of term 3 normally occurs, coincides with the end of a schooling year for countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Figure 3 - Monthly Net PLT Migration of Secondary-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

PART 2 - Year-to-Date² Arrivals and Departures

Net PLT migration has varied considerably over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1996, 2002 and 2003 (Figure 4). School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages. However, secondary-age migrants have shown consistently positive levels of migration, even in years where migration for all ages has been negative.

Figure 4 - Net PLT Migration for Each Age Group, Year Ended June 1993-2007

It is important to also look at inflows and outflows separately when analysing changes in migration. For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures. However, high arrivals could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with different languages and cultural backgrounds. Consequently, looking at the actual inflows and outflows will provide a more comprehensive picture than the net migration figures alone (see Figure 5).

In the year to June 2007, the level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year-olds was reasonably high (15,700). This, combined with a slightly higher number of PLT arrivals (19,400), resulted in a low net PLT migration figure for the year (3,700).

Figure 5 - Arrivals, Departures and Net PLT Migration of 0 to 17 year-olds, Year Ended June 1993-2007

PART 3 - Implication for School Rolls

Latest Migration Projections

The latest migration projections, produced by SNZ in July last year, estimated a total of 13,000 of all-ages and 3,600 of school-age net PLT migrants respectively for the year ended June 2007. These compare with 10,100 and 3,100 actual net PLT migrants and school-age migrants respectively for the same period.

Table 1 - Projected and Actual Migration for the Year Ended June 2007

5 to 17 Year-Olds	Actual	Projected*	% Difference**
	3,100	3,600	-14%
All Ages	10,100	13,000	-22%

* Based on SNZ long-term projection (July 2006) using Projection Series 5 and assuming medium fertility, medium mortality and medium migration.

** The difference between actual and projected migration figures as a proportion of projected migration.

Net PLT migration statistics provide a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter or leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more³.

Projected PLT Migrants Entering NZ Schools

In the latest update of the National School Roll Projections (NSRP), estimates were made on the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year-of-schooling. Table 2 summarises the number of PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in the coming years under the NSRP.

Table 2 - Projected Number of PLT Migrants Entering NZ Schools

Year Ended June	Primary*	Secondary**	Total
2006 (estimated actual)	2,900	1,200	4,100
2007	3,400	1,400	4,800
2008	3,300	1,400	4,700
2009	3,000	1,400	4,400
2010	2,500	1,300	3,800
2011 onwards	2,400	1,200	3,600

Source: November 2006 update of the National School Roll Projections (The 2007 update of the NSRP is currently under way and will be completed before the next Quarterly Migration Report).

* Primary totals, representing Year 1 to Year 8 students, include 0 to 4 year-old migrants who arrived in NZ in the previous four years and who will be turning 5 years old in the projected year.

** Secondary totals represent projected numbers of migrants in Year 9 to Year 15.

 

However, actual figures since then indicate that migration is likely to be lower than projected. Consequently, the number of migrants entering NZ schools is likely to be below the level expected under NSRP.

 

Definitions

Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and Long-Term Departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and Long-Term Migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-age migrants does not translate directly into the number of extra pupils in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all. A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow occurs when arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow occurs when departures exceed arrivals.

 

Footnote

1. In this report all arrivals and departures discussed are Permanent and Long-Term (PLT).
2. A year refers to the June year (July through to June).
3. Note that the number of net PLT school-age migrants does not translate directly into the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students, or as foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter the schooling system at all.

 

Related Education Counts Documents

For copies of this report relating to other quarters go to the Quarterly Migration Report: Index.

The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to related documents.