Students Going to School in 2007
The purpose of this report is to provide an outline of actual and projected trends in student enrolments both regionally and nationally.
Author: Central Forecasting & Modelling Unit, Ministry of EducationDate Published: February 2007
Introduction
Many schools will open for the 2007 school year on Wednesday, 7 February, with an estimated 753,200 New Zealand12students expected to go to school this year, about 3,000 fewer than last year. It is expected that 2006 will be the peak year for enrolments.
Government funding of schools is expected to continue increasing, with an estimated $5.7 billion going to schools in the year to June 2007.
NZ classrooms are diverse with increasing proportions of Māori, Pasifika and Asian students enrolling in schools.
Total primary enrolments this year will be around 477,400 , down by around 3,300 from last year. Secondary enrolments will be around 275,800, an increase of around 300 on last year.
Actual school rolls will not be known until the 2007 March and July roll collection, but it is expected that around 9,300 new entrants will be enrolled at schools this week. They will be among an estimated 56,000 children who will start school for the first time throughout the year3, around 2,000 fewer than last year. Most new school entrants will already have experience in education through attending an early childhood education centre. In 2006, 94.5 percent of new entrants had attended some form of early childhood education.National Summary
Schools
At July 2006 there were around 751,000 students in nearly 2,600 schools in NZ (see Table 1). There were also around 53,000 teachers in New Zealand schools in 2006.
Table 1: Number of schools and students at July 2006 and teachers at April 2006
| School type | Number of schools | Number of students** | Number of teachers |
| Primary |
2,049
|
439,632
|
26,804
|
| Secondary |
335
|
262,469
|
20,994
|
| Composite* |
142
|
46,150
|
3,966
|
| Special |
47
|
2,793
|
1,053
|
| Total |
2,573
|
751,044
|
52,817
|
Includes private schools
*Composite includes restricted composite schools and the Correspondence school.
** Excludes foreign fee-paying and NZAID students.
Note: Kura Teina and Teen Parent Units are not included in the count of schools. Their enrolments are included in the number of students.
Funding for schools
Around $5.4 billion in funding from the Government was spent on schools during the year to June 20064, a figure which is expected to rise to $5.7 billion in the year to June 2007.
Table 2: Estimated total expenditure on NZ schools
| Funding Group |
2005/06
|
2006/07
|
|
actual
|
forecast
|
|
|
$M
|
$M
|
|
| Teacher Salaries |
2,667
|
2,816
|
| School Operations |
1,022
|
1,070
|
| Additional funding for Special Education |
250
|
262
|
| Property including depreciation |
1,161
|
1,182
|
| Other |
329
|
359
|
| Total |
5,429
|
5,689
|
Notes: All figures GST exclusive.
Components may not add exactly due to rounding.
In nominal and real terms, there has been an increase in total government funding (including teacher salaries, operational funding and other resources) of schools in the last decade. There were increases in total per-student funding in most of the years since 1996, with larger increases in 2004 and 2005 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Estimates of inflation adjusted per-student funding of State and State Integrated schools, 1996 to 2006
Ethnic composition of schools
While European/Pakeha constitute the largest ethnic group in New Zealand schools, the next largest group, Māori, account for 22 percent of enrolments. There are also significant numbers of New Zealand students who are of Pasifika (9 percent) and Asian (8 percent) ethnicities.
Figure 2: Percentage of students by ethnicity, as at July 2006
During the period 2002-2006 the number of Māori, Pasifika and Asian students increased, while the number of European/Pakeha students decreased. Growth in the number of Asian students has resulted largely from increased migration from Asia in recent years.
Table 3: Change in the number and percentage of students by ethnicity, 2002 to 2006
| Change in number | European /Pakeha |
Māori
|
Pasifika
|
Asian
|
All New Zealand Students |
|
-16,338
|
9,829
|
7,746
|
12,563
|
4,600
|
|
| % change |
-3.6
|
6.4
|
12.8
|
25.5
|
42.7
|
Regional projections
Primary schools
The estimated number of new entrant children on the first day of school in 2007 is expected to be lower than in 2006. Throughout the year, around 56,000 new entrant children will enter schools – over half of these will be in the three main centres Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington.
Table 4: Estimated number of new entrants by region
| Region | 2006 | 2007 | ||
|
Beginning of School Year
|
Entire School Year
|
Beginning of School Year
|
Entire School Year
|
|
| Northland |
400
|
2,420
|
400
|
2,380
|
| Auckland |
3,260
|
19,540
|
3,100
|
18,630
|
| Waikato |
980
|
5,860
|
940
|
5,620
|
| Bay of Plenty |
680
|
4,060
|
640
|
3,860
|
| Gisborne |
140
|
840
|
130
|
760
|
| Hawkes Bay |
390
|
2,340
|
380
|
2,270
|
| Taranaki |
260
|
1,560
|
250
|
1,500
|
| Manawatu/Wanganui |
540
|
3,260
|
490
|
2,970
|
| Wellington |
1,060
|
6,340
|
970
|
5,800
|
| Nelson/Malborough/Tasman |
290
|
1,740
|
270
|
1,630
|
| West Coast |
70
|
450
|
70
|
410
|
| Canterbury |
1,130
|
6,800
|
1,100
|
6,580
|
| Otago |
390
|
2,340
|
370
|
2,230
|
| Southland |
220
|
1,320
|
220
|
1,320
|
| All areas |
9,810
|
58,860
|
9,320
|
55,950
|
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Does not include Health Camp and Hospital Schools
A similar breakdown by TLA is attached, refer appendix.
Secondary schools
Around 61,000 Year 9 students (including adult students) are expected to enrol at New Zealand secondary schools this year, about 400 fewer than last year.
Table 5: Estimated number of Year 9 students by region
| Region |
2006
|
2007
|
| Northland |
2,510
|
2,470
|
| Auckland |
20,010
|
19,920
|
| Waikato |
6,090
|
5,970
|
| Bay of Plenty |
4,220
|
4,310
|
| Gisborne |
790
|
760
|
| Hawkes Bay |
2,610
|
2,550
|
| Taranaki |
1,710
|
1,690
|
| Manawatu/Wanganui |
3,560
|
3,420
|
| Wellington |
6,340
|
6,400
|
| Nelson/Malborough/Tasman |
1,960
|
1,940
|
| West Coast |
440
|
430
|
| Canterbury |
7,260
|
7,360
|
| Otago |
2,570
|
2,520
|
| Southland |
1,380
|
1,330
|
| All areas |
61,430
|
61,070
|
Note 1: Totals may not add due to rounding.
A similar breakdown by TLA is attached, refer appendix.
Total enrolments regionally
Primary enrolments are expected to drop by around 3,300 between 2006 and 2007. Secondary enrolments should increase by around 300 enrolments between 2006 and 2007.
Table 6: Estimated number of students by region
| Region |
2006
|
2007
|
||
| Primary (Year 1-8) | Secondary (Year 9-15) | Primary (Year 1-8) | Secondary (Year 9-15) | |
| Northland |
19,920
|
10,270
|
19,580
|
10,240
|
| Auckland |
159,290
|
91,780
|
159,750
|
92,500
|
| Waikato |
48,090
|
26,560
|
47,670
|
26,510
|
| Bay of Plenty |
33,630
|
17,800
|
33,290
|
17,910
|
| Gisborne |
6,550
|
3,370
|
6,470
|
3,320
|
| Hawkes Bay |
19,550
|
11,280
|
19,330
|
11,220
|
| Taranaki |
12,750
|
7,580
|
12,410
|
7,480
|
| Manawatu/Wanganui |
26,940
|
15,620
|
26,360
|
15,390
|
| Wellington |
50,520
|
29,670
|
50,060
|
29,650
|
| Nelson/Malborough/Tasman |
14,170
|
8,750
|
14,010
|
8,780
|
| West Coast |
3,480
|
1,780
|
3,360
|
1,790
|
| Canterbury |
55,980
|
33,070
|
55,800
|
33,290
|
| Otago |
18,750
|
11,850
|
18,450
|
11,730
|
| Southland |
10,980
|
6,110
|
10,810
|
6,020
|
| All areas |
480,610
|
275,510
|
477,350
|
275,810
|
Note 1: Totals may not add due to rounding
Note 2: Primary figures are as at 1 July, Secondary figures are as at 1 March.
Note 3: Estimated 2007 figures are based on projected regional population.
School roll growth
The number of primary school students peaked in 2003, with a decline seen in 2004 to 2006 and a continuing decline expected to 2008. In contrast, the number of secondary school students continues to grow and is expected to peak in 2007.
Figure 3: Actual and projected school rolls, 2001 to 2016
*Actual student rolls
Note: Primary figures are as at 1 July, Secondary figures are as at 1 March
Enrolments are influenced significantly by birth trends. In the last twenty years the peak for live births was 60,400 in 1992.Since 1992, the number of live births drifted downwards until picking up again in 2004. These changes have a subsequent impact on the number of new entrants five years later. The high level of births experienced during the late 1980s and early 1990s has resulted in a ‘student bulge’ moving through the education system with a peak in primary rolls in 2003 and expected peak in secondary rolls in 2007. The increase in births in 2004 is expected to boost primary rolls in 2009 and eventually impact on secondary rolls in later years.
Migration also influences roll levels. In the year ended June 2006, New Zealand experienced a net gain of close to 3,200 migrants aged 5 to 17 compared to a net gain of around 2,100 over the same period in the previous year. Net gains from migration in each of the four years 2007 to 2010 are expected to be higher than in 2006.
Appendix
Table 7: Estimated Territorial Local Authority student rolls
| Territorial Local Authority |
Assorted statistics distributed by TLA
|
|||||||||
|
2006
|
2007
|
|||||||||
|
Year 1 beginning of school year
|
Year 1 entire school year
|
Year 9 students
|
Primary (Years 1-8)
|
Secondary (Years 9-15)
|
Year 1 beginning of school year
|
Year 1 entire school year
|
Year 9 students
|
Primary (Years 1-8)
|
Secondary (Years 9-15)
|
|
| Ashburton District |
70
|
400
|
350
|
3 140
|
1 480
|
60
|
360
|
350
|
3 100
|
1 480
|
| Auckland City |
870
|
5 220
|
6 500
|
43 340
|
31 640
|
780
|
4 650
|
6 430
|
43 080
|
31 520
|
| Banks Peninsula District |
20
|
90
|
10
|
660
|
40
|
10
|
70
|
10
|
660
|
40
|
| Buller District |
20
|
120
|
100
|
1 030
|
510
|
20
|
130
|
100
|
990
|
510
|
| Carterton District |
20
|
90
|
10
|
730
|
40
|
20
|
100
|
10
|
740
|
40
|
| Central H.Bay District |
30
|
200
|
180
|
1 620
|
850
|
30
|
190
|
190
|
1 570
|
850
|
| Central Otago District |
30
|
200
|
220
|
1 660
|
980
|
40
|
240
|
220
|
1 650
|
980
|
| Chatham Is. County |
-
|
10
|
-
|
80
|
-
|
-
|
10
|
-
|
80
|
-
|
| Christchurch City |
730
|
4 370
|
4 810
|
35 520
|
22 880
|
710
|
4 240
|
4 980
|
35 380
|
23 070
|
| Clutha District |
40
|
260
|
220
|
2 070
|
990
|
50
|
280
|
240
|
2 020
|
1 020
|
| Dunedin City |
230
|
1 380
|
1 600
|
10 940
|
7 380
|
210
|
1 270
|
1 510
|
10 760
|
7 250
|
| Far North District |
160
|
960
|
1 050
|
8 000
|
4 100
|
160
|
930
|
1 060
|
7 800
|
4 070
|
| Franklin District |
170
|
1 010
|
820
|
8 030
|
3 410
|
170
|
1 000
|
820
|
8 030
|
3 460
|
| Gisborne District |
140
|
840
|
790
|
6 550
|
3 370
|
130
|
750
|
760
|
6 480
|
3 320
|
| Gore District |
30
|
170
|
200
|
1 460
|
900
|
30
|
170
|
190
|
1 440
|
890
|
| Grey District |
40
|
220
|
250
|
1 640
|
870
|
30
|
190
|
230
|
1 600
|
860
|
| Hamilton City |
320
|
1 920
|
2 460
|
15 650
|
11 360
|
300
|
1 770
|
2 420
|
15 730
|
11 460
|
| Hastings District |
200
|
1 170
|
1 220
|
9 750
|
5 240
|
190
|
1 150
|
1 130
|
9 720
|
5 180
|
| Hauraki District |
40
|
210
|
370
|
2 130
|
1 560
|
30
|
200
|
310
|
2 080
|
1 480
|
| Horowhenua District |
70
|
440
|
420
|
3 550
|
1 810
|
70
|
420
|
430
|
3 440
|
1 770
|
| Hurunui District |
20
|
130
|
60
|
1 160
|
230
|
30
|
150
|
60
|
1 140
|
230
|
| Hutt City |
270
|
1 590
|
1 350
|
12 440
|
6 380
|
250
|
1 480
|
1 340
|
12 330
|
6 350
|
| Invercargill City |
120
|
740
|
870
|
6 210
|
3 880
|
110
|
680
|
820
|
6 120
|
3 810
|
| Kaikoura District |
10
|
50
|
40
|
390
|
180
|
10
|
50
|
30
|
390
|
170
|
| Kaipara District |
50
|
300
|
240
|
2 360
|
1 030
|
50
|
300
|
210
|
2 350
|
990
|
| Kapiti Coast District |
110
|
640
|
680
|
5 140
|
2 880
|
100
|
590
|
670
|
5 080
|
2 860
|
| Kawerau District |
20
|
120
|
120
|
1 040
|
480
|
20
|
140
|
120
|
1 010
|
460
|
| Manawatu District |
60
|
370
|
430
|
3 360
|
1 820
|
60
|
330
|
430
|
3 290
|
1 840
|
| Manukau City |
990
|
5 940
|
5 260
|
47 350
|
22 730
|
960
|
5 780
|
5 190
|
47 840
|
22 980
|
| Marlborough District |
90
|
530
|
570
|
4 400
|
2 380
|
80
|
480
|
510
|
4 350
|
2 340
|
| Masterton District |
50
|
310
|
530
|
2 890
|
2 490
|
50
|
270
|
520
|
2 790
|
2 440
|
| Matamata-Piako District |
80
|
470
|
480
|
3 950
|
2 000
|
80
|
450
|
450
|
3 880
|
1 950
|
| McKenzie District |
10
|
50
|
40
|
400
|
200
|
10
|
40
|
50
|
390
|
190
|
| Napier District |
130
|
800
|
1 080
|
6 910
|
4 680
|
130
|
790
|
1 120
|
6 810
|
4 700
|
| Nelson City |
90
|
550
|
800
|
4 670
|
3 970
|
80
|
500
|
840
|
4 580
|
3 960
|
| New Plymouth District |
170
|
990
|
1 250
|
8 220
|
5 630
|
150
|
900
|
1 240
|
8 010
|
5 560
|
| North Shore City |
440
|
2 610
|
3 320
|
22 610
|
16 140
|
420
|
2 530
|
3 310
|
22 690
|
16 410
|
| Opotiki District |
30
|
180
|
170
|
1 400
|
630
|
30
|
180
|
190
|
1 350
|
660
|
| Otorohanga District |
20
|
120
|
100
|
1 010
|
410
|
20
|
110
|
90
|
1 000
|
390
|
| Palmerston Nth City |
190
|
1 130
|
1 260
|
8 590
|
5 790
|
170
|
1 030
|
1 160
|
8 570
|
5 740
|
| Papakura District |
140
|
850
|
890
|
6 590
|
3 730
|
140
|
820
|
930
|
6 570
|
3 800
|
| Porirua City |
150
|
890
|
570
|
6 700
|
2 530
|
130
|
760
|
580
|
6 620
|
2 530
|
| Queenstown-Lakes District |
50
|
280
|
200
|
2 040
|
920
|
40
|
230
|
200
|
2 040
|
920
|
| Rangitikei District |
40
|
230
|
190
|
1 900
|
890
|
40
|
210
|
170
|
1 840
|
850
|
| Rodney District |
220
|
1 300
|
1 070
|
10 450
|
4 220
|
210
|
1 240
|
1 100
|
10 460
|
4 300
|
| Rotorua District |
190
|
1 160
|
1 200
|
9 470
|
4 970
|
190
|
1 120
|
1 190
|
9 370
|
4 960
|
| Ruapehu District |
40
|
210
|
200
|
1 890
|
800
|
30
|
170
|
200
|
1 810
|
770
|
| Selwyn District |
80
|
470
|
490
|
3 760
|
2 130
|
80
|
480
|
530
|
3 770
|
2 170
|
| South Taranaki District |
70
|
430
|
290
|
3 380
|
1 240
|
70
|
440
|
290
|
3 270
|
1 250
|
| South Waikato District |
60
|
370
|
400
|
3 270
|
1 610
|
70
|
390
|
400
|
3 150
|
1 620
|
| South Wairarapa District |
20
|
130
|
100
|
950
|
480
|
20
|
130
|
100
|
930
|
450
|
| Southland District |
70
|
410
|
310
|
3 300
|
1 330
|
80
|
460
|
310
|
3 250
|
1 310
|
| Stratford District |
20
|
140
|
160
|
1 160
|
710
|
30
|
160
|
150
|
1 140
|
660
|
| Tararua District |
40
|
250
|
250
|
2 250
|
1 060
|
40
|
230
|
240
|
2 160
|
1 060
|
| Tasman District |
110
|
660
|
590
|
5 090
|
2 400
|
110
|
660
|
600
|
5 080
|
2 460
|
| Taupo District |
80
|
480
|
450
|
3 900
|
1 830
|
80
|
470
|
430
|
3 850
|
1 830
|
| Tauranga District |
270
|
1 600
|
1 760
|
12 980
|
7 530
|
240
|
1 440
|
1 820
|
13 020
|
7 650
|
| Thames-Coromandel District |
60
|
350
|
300
|
2 650
|
1 260
|
50
|
290
|
310
|
2 600
|
1 280
|
| Timaru District |
80
|
500
|
760
|
4 810
|
3 130
|
80
|
480
|
690
|
4 730
|
3 050
|
| Upper Hutt City |
100
|
570
|
740
|
4 750
|
3 240
|
90
|
550
|
730
|
4 680
|
3 200
|
| Waikato District |
120
|
740
|
330
|
5 650
|
1 330
|
110
|
680
|
340
|
5 600
|
1 330
|
| Waimakariri District |
110
|
640
|
640
|
5 170
|
2 570
|
100
|
590
|
610
|
5 210
|
2 590
|
| Waimate District |
20
|
90
|
60
|
750
|
240
|
20
|
90
|
60
|
720
|
250
|
| Waipa District |
120
|
720
|
830
|
5 840
|
3 870
|
130
|
760
|
840
|
5 780
|
3 880
|
| Wairoa District |
30
|
160
|
120
|
1 270
|
510
|
20
|
140
|
110
|
1 240
|
500
|
| Waitakere City |
480
|
2 870
|
2 310
|
22 940
|
10 480
|
480
|
2 870
|
2 300
|
23 120
|
10 540
|
| Waitaki District |
40
|
240
|
330
|
2 250
|
1 570
|
40
|
260
|
340
|
2 180
|
1 550
|
| Waitomo District |
30
|
150
|
130
|
1 380
|
530
|
30
|
150
|
120
|
1 350
|
510
|
| Wanganui District |
110
|
630
|
820
|
5 380
|
3 450
|
100
|
580
|
770
|
5 230
|
3 370
|
| Wellington City |
350
|
2 120
|
2 360
|
16 910
|
11 640
|
320
|
1 920
|
2 460
|
16 890
|
11 850
|
| Western BOP District |
90
|
530
|
390
|
4 500
|
1 710
|
90
|
510
|
380
|
4 460
|
1 730
|
| Westland District |
20
|
100
|
100
|
810
|
390
|
20
|
90
|
90
|
780
|
420
|
| Whakatane District |
90
|
550
|
640
|
4 850
|
2 700
|
90
|
540
|
680
|
4 690
|
2 690
|
| Whangarei District |
190
|
1 150
|
1 220
|
9 560
|
5 150
|
190
|
1 140
|
1 200
|
9 440
|
5 190
|
| Total |
9 810
|
58 860
|
61 430
|
480 610
|
275 510
|
9 320
|
55 950
|
61 070
|
477 350
|
275 810
|
Note 1: Individual TLAs may not add to total due to rounding
Note 2: Primary figures are as at 1 July, Secondary figures are as at 1 March.
Note 3: Estimated 2007 figures are based on projected population changes in TLA
Further information on school rolls can be found in the annual publication Education Statistics of New Zealand (Ministry of Education).
Footnotes
-
All figures represent New Zealand students only. NZAID sponsored students and foreign fee-paying students are excluded.
- Primary enrolments are as at 1 July; secondary enrolments are as at 1 March.
- Children starting school a t 5 years old
- Excluding GST.
Related Education Counts Documents
The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to this report and other related documents.
See Education Statistics from 1989-2004 publications for further information on school rolls.