Introduction

Analysis looking at migration impacts on education has usually centred on foreign fee paying (FFP) students and New Zealand ’s export education sector. However the education sector is affected by more than just migrants who choose to come to New Zealand to study as FFP students, but also migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

This is one of a series of quarterly reports intended to give an update of actual external migration statistics for children based on data provided by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). The report comments on the emerging trends and the potential impact on schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand¹ . The information is obtained from the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• actual migration for the September 2005 quarter;

• arrivals, departures and net migration for the year ended June;

• implications for school enrolments.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available February 2006

Overall summary of recent trends in migration

• Net PLT migration of school-age migrants (0 to 17 year olds) continues to track lower than previous years.

• Net PLT migration in the September 2005 quarter is lower than the September 2004 quarter due to more departures of school-age children, coupled with a similar level of arrivals.

• As stated in a previous report, we can expect a lower level school-age migration for 2006 than previously forecast.

• The latest National School Roll Projections assume around 4,000 net PLT school-age migrants for 2006.

• This level of school-age migrants translates into around 3,100 enrolments in NZ schools in 2006, with an additional 1,200 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from arrivals of 0 to 4 year olds within the last four years.

PART 1 — School-age migration for the September 05 quarter

As shown in the graphs below, school-age migration continues to track slightly lower than previous years.

In the September 2005 quarter, net PLT migration of pre-school-aged migrants (0 to 4 year olds) totalled 130 (a net inflow) (see Figure 1). This compares with a net inflow of 330 for the same period last year — a decrease of 200 (or 61 percent). This decrease arises from 250 more departures (offset by 50 more arrivals) than the September 2004 quarter.

Figure 1

In the September 2005 quarter, net PLT migration of primary-aged migrants (5 to 12 year olds) totalled 490 (a net inflow) (see Figure 2). This compares with a net inflow of 520 for the same period last year — a decrease of 30 (or 6 percent). This decrease arises from 90 more departures (offset by 60 more arrivals) than the September 2004 quarter.

Figure 2

In the September 2005 quarter, net PLT migration of secondary-aged migrants (13 to 17 year olds) totalled 550 (a net inflow) (see Figure 3). This compares with a net inflow of 770 for the same period last year — a decrease of 210 (or 28 percent). This decrease arises from 210 more departures than in the September 2004 quarter.

Secondary-aged migrants show a distinct seasonal pattern. As shown in Figure 3, arrivals of secondary-aged migrants tend to be high in January and July. This ties in with the start of the New Zealand school year and July coincides with the term changes in the school year for other countries.

Figure 3

PART 2 — Year ended June arrivals and departures

As stated in the previous quarterly migration report, net PLT migration has varied dramatically over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1996 and in 2003 ( Figure 4 ). School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages. However, secondary-aged migrants have shown consistently positive levels of migration, even in years where migration for all ages has been negative.

Migration also appears cyclical, and so current low levels of school-age migration can be expected to pick up in coming years.

Figure 4

Inflows and outflows of migrant children to and from New Zealand also deserve as much attention as net migration. It is important to look at flows when analysing any changes in net migration. For example, an increase in net migration may be due to a large surge in arrivals with no change in departure levels, or it could be related to a slight increase in arrivals and a large decline in departures. Looking at the actual flows gives us a more comprehensive picture of the situation.

Currently, the level of PLT departures is high; with PLT arrivals tracking only slightly higher, hence net PLT migration is low ( Figure 5 ).

Figure 5

PART 3 — Implications for school rolls

Latest migration projections

As stated in the previous quarterly migration report, the latest migration projections (produced by SNZ in December 2004) projected a total of 5,000 net PLT migrants of all ages for the year ended June 2005. This compares well with 8,600 actual net PLT migrants for the year ended June 2005. These projections were not as close for school-age migrants however, with 2,700 school-age (0 to 17 year old) migrants compared to the 5,200 projected — an over-projection of 93 percent.

Table 1: Projected and actual migration for the year ended June 2005

*Based on SNZ long-term projection, December 2004, Projection Series 5 assuming medium fertility, medium mortality and medium migration.

** The difference between the Actual and Projected migration figures as a proportion of Actual migration figures.

The latest National School Roll Projections (NSRP) were produced in September 2005. In light of the relatively large difference between forecast and actual school-age migration (for the year ended June 2005), SNZ advised a change to projection assumptions for school-age migrants. The latest NSRP use SNZ’s Projection Series 4 (the low migration scenario) as its medium assumption for 2006. From 2007 onwards SNZ’s Projection Series 5 (the medium migration scenario) remains the most likely to eventuate.

Table 2: Revised number of school-age migrants projected

Impact on school enrolments

Net PLT migration statistics give us a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter/leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more. It is important to note however that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools.

Inflows of school-aged migrants can impact on schools in different ways. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all.

There is also the issue of ‘category jumping’. A migrant may indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

In the latest National School Roll Projections, estimates were made of the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year level. Table 3 summarises the number of PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in coming years.

Table 3: Projected number of PLT migrants entering NZ schools

Source: July 2005 update of the National School Roll Projections.

* Primary totals include 0 to 4 year old migrants who arrived in NZ in the last four years and who will be turning 5 years old in the projected year.

Definitions

Permanent and long-termarrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and long-term departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and long term migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Net inflow : arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow: departures exceed arrivals.

Footnote

¹ In this report all arrivals and departures discussed are Permanent and Long-Term (PLT).

Related Education Counts Documents

For copies of this report relating to other quarters go to the Quarterly Migration Report: Index.

The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to related documents.