Quarterly Migration Report - March 2006 Quarter

Introduction

Analysis looking at migration impacts on education has usually centred on foreign fee paying (FFP) students and New Zealand ’s export education sector. However, the education sector is affected by more than just migrants who choose to come to New Zealand to study as FFP students, but also migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

This is one of a series of quarterly reports intended to give an update of actual external migration statistics for children based on data provided by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). The report comments on the emerging trends and the potential impact on schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand¹ . The information is obtained from the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• actual monthly school-age migration

• arrivals, departures and net migration for the year to date
• implications for school enrolments

See Appendix for definitions of the terms used in this report.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available August 2006.

Overall summary of recent trends in migration

• Actual school-age migration is on track to reach the level assumed for 2006 in the National School Roll Projections.

• This assumed level of school-age migrants translates to around 3,100 enrolments in NZ schools in 2006, with an additional 1,200 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from arrivals of 0 to 4 year olds within the last four years.

• Monthly migration of school-age children (0 to 17 year olds) is currently tracking above that seen last year.

• This recent increase in net migration of school-age children overall is due to a combination of more arrivals and fewer departures from NZ in the last few months.

• In the year to March 2006, there has been a net inflow of 3,600 school-age migrants to NZ – around 400 more than last year. This increase is due to an increase in arrivals from 2005 to 2006.

Part 1 - Monthly school-age migration

As shown in the graphs below, net PLT migration of pre-school, primary, and secondary school-aged children in 2006 has so far tracked above the level for the same period last year.

Pre-school PLT migration

Since September 2005, net PLT migration of pre-school-aged children (0 to 4 year olds) has tracked at or above the previous year. Despite this increase, net PLT migration for this group is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

The recent increase in net PLT migration of this age group is due to a combination of more arrivals and fewer departures from NZ.

 

Figure 1

 

Primary PLT migration

Net PLT migration of primary-aged children (5 to 12 year olds) is currently tracking above the level seen in 2005. Despite this increase, net PLT migration for this group is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

This increase in net PLT migration of this age group over previous years is mainly due to fewer departures from NZ.

 

Figure 2

 

Secondary PLT migration

The migration of secondary-aged children (13 to 17 year olds) is currently tracking above the level seen last year. Despite this increase, net PLT migration for this group is still considerably lower than the high levels of migration seen in 2003.

The recent increase in net PLT migration of this age group is due to a combination of more arrivals and fewer departures from NZ.

Secondary-aged migrants show a distinct seasonal pattern. As shown in Figure 3, arrivals of secondary-aged migrants tend to be high at the beginning of the year and in July. This ties in with the start of the NZ school year and July coincides with the term changes in the school year for other countries.

 

Figure 3

Part 2 - Year to date² arrivals and departures

Net PLT migration has varied dramatically over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1996 and in 2003 ( Figure 4). School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages. However, secondary-aged migrants have shown consistently positive levels of migration, even in years where migration for all ages has been negative.

 

Figure 4

 

It is very important to look at inflows and outflows when analysing any changes in net migration. For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures. However, in this scenario the high numbers of migrant children arriving in NZ could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with cultural and language differences. Hence looking at the actual inflows and outflows gives us a more comprehensive picture than net migration alone (see Figure 5).

In the year to March 2006, the level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year olds was high (15,200); with PLT arrivals tracking slightly higher (18,700). Hence net PLT migration is low (3,600).

 

Figure 5

Part 3 - Implications for school rolls

Current net PLT migration is in line with that assumed for 2006 in the latest National School Roll Projections.

Net PLT migration statistics give us a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter or leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more³.

In the latest National School Roll Projections (produced September 2005), estimates were made of the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year-of-schooling. Actual monthly migration figures since September indicate migration is likely to be similar to that projected.

Table 1 summarises the number of PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in coming years.

 

Table 1: Projected number of PLT migrants entering NZ schools

Year ended June	Primary* Y1-Y8	Secondary Y9-Y15	Total
2005 (estimated actual)	1,600	1,300	3,000
2006	3,000	1,400	4,400
2007	3,700	1,700	5,400
2008	3,900	1,800	5,700
2009 onwards	3,900	2,000	5,900

Source: July 2005 update of the National School Roll Projections.

* Primary totals include 0 to 4 year old migrants who arrived in NZ in the last four years and who will be turning 5 years old in the projected year.

Definitions

Permanent and long-termarrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and long-term departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and long term migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all. A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow : arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow: departures exceed arrivals.

 

Footnote

¹ In this report all arrivals and departures discussed are Permanent and Long-Term (PLT).

² April through to March in this report.

³ Note that the number of net PLT school-aged migrants does not translate directly to the number of extra children in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all.

 

 

Related Education Counts Documents

For copies of this report relating to other quarters go to the Quarterly Migration Report: Index.

The index page for the National School Roll Projections provides links to related documents.