Quarterly Migration Report - December 2007 Quarter

Introduction 

The focus on migration impacts has often centred on foreign fee-paying (FFP) students and New Zealand’s export education sector. However, the education sector is affected not only by FFP students but also migrant children who arrive with their parents and receive education in New Zealand schools.

This document is one of a series of quarterly reports intended to give an update on actual external migration statistics for children, based on data provided by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). This report comments on the emerging trends and the potential impact they have on schools.

External migration statistics refer to long-term movements of overseas migrants and New Zealand residents into and out of New Zealand. This information is captured by the New Zealand passenger arrival and departure cards, and is available from SNZ on a monthly basis.

This document is set out in three parts:

• Actual migration for the December 2007 quarter
• Arrivals, departures and net migration for the year-to-date
• Implications for school enrolments
  

See Appendix 1 for definitions of the terms used in this report.

The next Quarterly Migration Report will be available in May 2008.

Overall Summary of Recent Trends in Migration

• In the year to December 2007, there has been a net inflow of 2,300 pre-school-age and school-age migrants (0 to 17 year-olds) into NZ – approximately 2,500 fewer than the previous year. This decrease is due to a much higher level of departures (2,500 more) with the level of arrivals remain similar to the previous year’s level.
• The level of net inflow in the year to December 2007 is considerably lower than the long-term average of 5,600.
• SNZ is expecting a lower level of net inflow of school-age migrants in 2008 compared to its projection for 2007. In addition, the actual number of school-age migrants in 2007 was well below SNZ’s most recent migration projection.
• The latest National School Roll Projections assumed around 2,950 net PLT school-age migrants for the 2008 schooling year. This level of school-age migrants translates into around 2,650 enrolments in NZ schools in 2008, with an additional 1,200 new entrants expected to enrol resulting from the arrivals of 0 to 4 year-olds during previous years.
  

PART 1: School-Age Migration for the December Quarter

As shown in the graphs below, net PLT migration for children of all ages that we monitor (0 to 17 year-olds) in the December 2007 quarter has tracked below the levels experienced in the same quarter of the previous year.

Pre-School PLT Migration

For the quarter ended December 2007, net PLT migration of pre-school-age children (0 to 4 year-olds) was 203 overall, representing a net inflow (Figure 1). However, this level of migration is still lower than what had occurred in the December 2006 quarter (a net inflow of 433) and is considerably lower than the high levels of migrations seen in 2002 and 2003. The decrease is mostly due to higher level of departures (182 more compared to same time last year).

Figure 1. Monthly Net PLT Migration of Pre-School-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

Primary PLT Migration

Net PLT migration of primary school-age children (5 to 12 year-olds) has tracked below the level seen in 2006 for all months this year. In the December 2007 quarter, net PLT migration of primary-age children totalled 44, representing a net migration inflow (Figure 2). This is lower than the level of inflow experienced during the December 2006 quarter (a net inflow of 398) and is considerably lower than the high levels of migration inflows seen in 2002 and 2003. The decrease is again attributed mainly to higher number of departures in the December 2007 quarter.

Figure 2. Monthly Net PLT Migration of Primary-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

Secondary PLT Migration

For the quarter ended December 2007, net PLT migration of secondary school-age children (13 to 17 year-olds) totalled -252 (a net outflow). This is lower compared to the outflow of 10 secondary school-age migrants seen in the December 2006 quarter (Figure 3). The decrease is mostly due to higher level of departures (200 more compared to same time last year).

Secondary-age migrants show a distinctive seasonal pattern. For migrants in this age group, the number of arrivals tends to be higher at the beginning of the year as well as around July. The high level of migration inflows in January and February ties in with the start of the NZ schooling year while July, in which term 3 normally starts, coincides with the end of a schooling year for countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Figure 3. Monthly Net PLT Migration of Secondary-Age Migrants (2005-2007)

PART 2 - Year-to-Date Arrivals and Departures

Net PLT migration for all age groups has varied considerably over the past decade, with high levels of migration in 1995, 1996, 2002 and 2003. School-age migration shows similar patterns to migration for all ages with the exception of secondary-age group, which experienced consistent levels of migration inflows even in years where total migration was negative. Figure 4 illustrates the level of net migration for the three age groups within the 0 to 17 year-olds from 1993 to 2007.

Figure 4. Net PLT Migration by Age Group, Years Ended December 1993-2007 

 

When analysing changes in migration it is important to also look at inflows and outflows separately. For example, a high level of arrivals coupled with a high level of departures will result in low net migration figures. However, high arrivals could have a large impact on classrooms due to the diverse needs of children with different languages and cultural backgrounds. Consequently, looking at the actual inflows and outflows will provide a more comprehensive picture than the net migration figures alone (see Figure 5).

In the year to December 2007, the level of PLT departures of 0 to 17 year-olds was the highest since 1993 (16,847); with PLT arrivals tracking slightly higher (19,152) but not at the highest level. The net PLT migration is relatively low (2,305) and has declined from the level seen in the previous year (4,766).

Figure 5. Arrivals, Departures and Net PLT Migration of 0 to 17 year-olds, Years Ended December 1993-2007

 

PART 3 - Implication for School Rolls

Latest Migration Projections

Actual net PLT migrants and school-age migrants for the year ended December 2007 came to 5,500 and 2,100 respectively. This is below the level of medium migration projection produced by SNZ last year, which assumed 10,000 of all-age and estimated 3,400 of school-age net PLT migrants in 2007.

Table 1: Actual and Projected Migration for the Year Ended December 2007

	Actual	Projected*	% Difference**
5 to 17 Year-Olds	2,150	3,350	-36.8%
All Ages	5,500	10,000	-45.1%

_{*  Based on SNZ’s medium level of migration projection assumptions (October 2007 update).
** The difference between actual and projected migration as a proportion of projected migration.}

Net PLT migration statistics provide a starting point for estimating the number of migrants in schools, as it includes all children intending to enter or leave New Zealand for a period of 12 months or more.

Projected PLT Migrants Entering NZ Schools

In the latest update of the National School Roll Projections (NSRP), estimates were made on the number of PLT migrants who will enrol in NZ schools by year-of-schooling. Table 2 summarises the number of PLT migrants expected to enter NZ schools in the coming years under the NSRP.

Table 2: Projected PLT Migrants Entering NZ Schools

Year	Primary*	Secondary**	Total
2007 (estimated actual)	2,850	1,550	4,400
2008	2,450	1,350	3,850
2009	2,350	1,450	3,800
2010	2,200	1,500	3,700
2011	2,100	1,500	3,600
2012	2,200	1,500	3,700

_{Source: November 2007 update of the National School Roll Projections. Figures may not add up due to rounding.
*  Primary totals, representing Year 1 to Year 8 students, include 0 to 4 year-old migrants who arrived in NZ in the previous years and are expected to turn 5 in the projected years.
** Secondary totals represent projected full-time equivalent migrants expected to enrol in Year 9 to Year 15.}
 

Appendix 1: Definitions

Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals consist of overseas migrants who arrive in NZ intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more, plus NZ residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

Permanent and Long-Term Departures include NZ residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more plus overseas visitors departing from NZ after a stay of 12 months or more.

Net Permanent and Long-Term Migrants are calculated as the arrivals minus departures. Permanent and long-term migrants include students and those on working and holiday visas or permits, where the person does not intend (at least initially) to remain permanently in the country.

Note that the number of net PLT school-age migrants does not translate directly into the number of extra pupils in schools. Migrant children may enter schools as regular students (i.e. with their parents who become residents), foreign fee paying students, or they may not enter schools at all. A migrant may also indicate that they are here for a short-term visit but end up enrolling in a school over consecutive years or alternatively indicate that they are here on a permanent basis and end up only staying for a much shorter period. Hence the net PLT migration data is limited and should only be viewed as indicative of the number of migrant children here for an extended period.

Net inflow occurs when arrivals exceed departures.

Net outflow occurs when departures exceed arrivals.