Student Perspectives on Leaving School, Pathways, and Careers

Intended activities in the first year of leaving school

We asked students to indicate what they expected to be doing during their first year of leaving school. Students were able to indicate more than one activity or pathway, in keeping with research which has shown young people often change activities or pathway options after leaving school and often have “back up plans” or multiple pathways in mind (Vaughan, 2005; Vaughan et al., 2006). Therefore our questions aimed to get indicators of the level of likelihood of their engagement with a range of different study, training, employment, and unpaid work options.

Post-school options

Over two-thirds of the students in this study expected to attend university (69 percent) and this was easily the most popular tertiary education choice. Less than a fifth expected to be engaged in study in institutions or via pathways other than university (19 percent polytechnic, 16 percent private training establishment, 12 percent Youth Training course, 7 percent teacher training institute).

Table  9: Students’ intentions in first year after leaving school

Intention (n = 420)	Very likely or likely	Not sure	Very unlikely or unlikely
	%	%	%
Attend university	69	12	18
Travel	51	25	24
Earning while learning options	23	30	47
Full-time paid work	22	28	43
A break from study or work	21	37	42
Attend a polytechnic	19	30	51
Attend a private training establishment	16	27	58
Attend a Youth Training course	12	29	59
Volunteer work	9	26	61
Attend teacher training institute	7	14	78
Care for family at home	2	19	78

 

Note: Columns add to more than 100 percent as students could nominate more than one possible activity.

 

Students were the least unsure about two particular options but in different ways. Just 12 percent were unsure about whether or not they would attend university, with less than a fifth (18 percent) thinking it was very unlikely or unlikely. However, only 14 percent were unsure about whether or not they would attend a teacher training institute, with more than three-quarters (78 percent) thinking teacher training was very unlikely or unlikely, making teaching appear to be a very unpopular career straight from school. However, this gives a misleading picture of pathway comparisons because the pathway (teacher training institute) leads only to one occupation (teaching), while the other pathways lead into a range of different and unspecified occupations. It is also more common for teaching to be a post graduate study option.

Just over half of all students expected to travel (51 percent). Less than a quarter expected to be working more than 30 hours a week through earning-while-learning options (23 percent) or paid work (22 percent). Just over a fifth expected to be neither working nor studying; 21 percent expected to have a break from work or study.

Further study

Almost three-quarters of the students in this study expected to undertake some form of tertiary- level study in their first year of leaving school (72 percent) and just 7 percent did not intend any study. If we assume that our students would be 18–19 by the time they enrol in a tertiary institution, the proportion is much higher than the proportion of 18–19-year-olds throughout New Zealand (46 percent) who do enrol in a tertiary institution (Ministry of Education tertiary participation rates for 2006, Education Counts).

Some groups of students were more likely to intend tertiary study than others, and to intend to undertake that study on a full-time basis. More females (77 percent) than males (67 percent), more Pākehā/NZ European/Asian (75 percent) than Māori/Pasifika (50 percent), and more students taking academic courses (86 percent arts, 78 percent science) than students taking non-academic courses (58 percent contextual, 51 percent vocational) expected to undertake tertiary study in the first year of leaving school.

The likelihood of expecting to study also increased as the quartiles and group rankings became more positive for the variables shown in the following table. Although there is a statistically significant difference between student categories for the variable of attendance, the difference is smaller than that for other variables. Given that some students were more interested than others in moving on from school work and routines (see Section 2 on best things and hardest things about leaving school), it may be that students’ attendance speaks to a (dis)engagement with school, rather than a (dis)engagement with learning per se. Indeed, the analysis of variable and factor associations with intrinsic motivation in On the Edge of Adulthood showed that variations in intrinsic motivation and long-term learning attitude are not necessarily related to variations in achievement, as measured by NCEA Level 1 credits, or to subject cluster (Wylie et al., in press).

Table  10: Students undertaking further study

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said likely or very likely
Focused and responsible	58	90
Total no. of Level 1 NCEA credits	48	90
Cognitive competency	54	90
Motivation at 14	59	89
Social skills	58	83
Family income at 16	67 (< $40K)	86 (> $100K)
Mother’s qualifications	55 (none)	85 (university)
Enjoyment of reading	52	82
Social difficulties (reversed)	53	80
Attendance	52	64

The variables in Table 10 above are very similar to those in Table 3 (agreement that the best thing about leaving school is “not having teachers hassling me”). This similarity between tables suggests a possible connection in terms of how students see themselves as learners—the students who feel hassled at school seem less likely to undertake further study.

Few students intended their studies to be part-time (18 percent) and, instead, around a third of students expected their studies to be full-time (36 percent) or were not sure (39 percent). This suggests that part-time study (which may go hand-in-hand with earning-while-learning options such as apprenticeships) is less favoured and/or a less available option for students (Modern Apprenticeship places are limited). It appears that full-time study may still be the preferred, or the default, option for many young people. The slightly higher percentage of students who were not sure (39 percent) might relate to students not knowing how affordable their course costs would or could be, or not actually knowing if they wanted to continue study on a full-time basis after leaving school. Students in the lowest group for motivation at 14 (23 percent) were more likely to undertake study on a part-time basis compared with just 9 percent of those who scored in the highest group for motivation at 14.

Students taking academic courses (57 percent arts and 38 percent science) were more likely to say they would study full-time than students doing non academic courses (29 percent vocational and 27 percent contextual). Other variables associated with students expecting to study full-time are shown in the following table.

Table  11: Students expecting to study full-time

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said likely or very likely
Total no. of Level 1 NCEA credits	18	70
Cognitive competency	14	60
Focused and responsible	19	58
Social skills	20	51
Motivation at 14	21	51
Enjoyment of reading	12	49
Mother’s qualifications	18 (none)	48 (university)

The previous two tables highlight a social inequality in tertiary participation: not only are young people from the most affluent families more likely to anticipate that they would undertake tertiary study, but they are also more likely to expect to undertake it on a full-time basis. Interestingly, neither table shows any association with school decile, and there is no association with family income at 16 shown in the second table (on full-time study expectations).

Likelihood of intended activities and pathways

There were statistically significant differences associated with Competent Children, Competent Learners factors in terms of intended pathway options for the first year of leaving school. These differences are similar to those found in relation to the previous question on whether students intended to study.

University

In the case of where students intended to study, students who took academic courses (91 percent arts and 75 percent science) were more likely to attend university than students who took non academic courses (56 percent contextual and 54 percent vocational). Students in the highest quartile for the following variables were also more likely to attend university:

Table  12: Students intending to study at university

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said likely or very likely
Focused and responsible	42	90
Total no. of level 1 NCEA credits	33	90
Mother’s qualifications	47 (none)	90 (university)
Social skills	47	88
Cognitive competency	36	88
Family income at 16	63 (< $40K)	88 (> $150K)
Motivation at 14	61	87
Enjoyment of reading	40	85
Decile of school attended	39 (decile 1/2)	75 (decile 9/10)
Attendance at school	45	74

There are a number of quite dramatic differences between lowest and highest quartiles for the characteristics shown in the table. Two of the social characteristics—decile and mother’s qualifications—point to patterns of inequality seen throughout the Competent Children, Competent Learners project and in other research on tertiary participation. Subject clusters in schools may also point to within-school inequalities. It is interesting to note that this is the first time decile has shown up as statistically significant for intended post-school options.

Polytechnic

Study at a polytechnic was not an attractive option for many students in this study; just 19 percent thought it very likely or likely they would attend a polytechnic. The unpopularity of this as an option stood out for students associated with three of the characteristics from Table 12 (students more likely to attend university).

Table  13: Students less likely to attend a polytechnic

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said unlikely or very unlikely
Total no. of Level 1 NCEA credits	36	70
Social skills	44	67
Cognitive competency	12	20

 

Earning-while-learning

Earning-while-learning is paid employment with training towards qualifications paid for, and supported by, the employer. For young people these options typically encompass Modern Apprenticeships, New Zealand Defence Force careers, and industry cadetships. In comparison with full-time tertiary study courses and availability, earning-while-learning options are comparatively fewer and less well publicised. They also tend to be lower in status than other tertiary options, particularly as the most recent option to be recognised as a tertiary-level one, and also since these options are associated with lower status forms of learning involving “hands-on” work and vocational orientations.

Given the association with hands-on learning, usually prevalent in the trades where males predominate, it is not surprising that just over twice as many males (31 percent) as females (15 percent) were likely/very likely to engage with earning-while-learning options. Students doing non academic courses (31 percent contextual and 39 percent vocational) were more likely to engage with earning-while-learning options, compared with students taking academic courses (15 percent arts and 18 percent science).

The pattern of associations seen for the likelihood of attending university is reversed for earning-while-learning as shown in the following table. However, while there is a similar pattern for learning variables, the income-related variables of school decile, mother’s qualifications, and family income at 16 do not appear as might have been expected. This could be because the most common earning-while-learning option is a Modern Apprenticeship and apprenticeship places tend to attract, or be offered to, young people with an existing connection to the trade or industry that suggests they would be a “safe bet” for the employer (e.g., the father is a plumber too, a friend works there, the student has had some work experience there already). In these cases, there would not be an association with income-related characteristics.

Table  14: Students likely to engage with earning-while-learning options

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said likely or very likely
Enjoyment of reading	56	13
Attendance at school	48	18
Social difficulties (reversed)	46	15
Focused and responsible	43	10
Cognitive competency	42	8
Motivation at 14	36	14

In addition, students in the highest quartile for social skills (67 percent) were particularly unlikely to engage with earning-while-learning options, compared with those in the lowest quartile (32 percent). There was a similar pattern for total number of NCEA credits, with students in the highest quartile (60 percent) particularly unlikely to engage with earning-while-learning options, compared with those in the lowest quartile (20 percent).

Full-time paid work

The only gender and ethnicity associations in the initial post-school destinations were that males (29 percent) and Māori/Pasifika students (30 percent) were more likely than females (16 percent) and Pākehā/New Zealand European/Asian students (13 percent) to expect to work full-time in the first year of leaving school.

The pattern of variable associations was very similar to the one for earning-while-learning shown above. However, a key difference is that attendance at school and social difficulties are not associated with students intending to work full-time as they are with students intending to undertake earning-while-learning options. It is not clear why this is the case though.

Table  15: Students intending to work full-time

	Lowest quartile or category	Highest quartile or category
	% who said likely or very likely
Enjoyment of reading	48	13
Focused and responsible	38	10
Cognitive competency	37	12
Motivation at 14	35	12

Travel

Students in the highest quartile for risky behaviour were more likely to travel. So were students with university-qualified mothers. Females (58 percent) were more likely than males (44 percent) to travel. This is slightly different from the other patterns reported. It may be that students have different reasons for travelling, or different purposes in the kind of travel they expect to do. For some students this might occur during study years, and for others instead of study.

Care for family, Youth Training course, Volunteer work

Few students intended to pursue these options. However, several of the statistically significant associations point again to structural inequalities.

Students with university-qualified mothers and in the highest quartile for cognitive competency were the most unlikely to care for family, or start one, as an option in their first year of leaving school.

The percentage of students who said it was likely/very likely that they would attend a free Youth Training course increased as their school decile decreased. Students from decile 1 or 2 schools were more likely to undertake Youth Training than students from decile 9 and 10 schools. Even though the percentages are low, students in the lowest quartile for cognitive competency were more likely to enrol in a youth training course than those in the highest quartile.

A high percentage of students in the lowest category for enjoyment of reading said they were unlikely/very unlikely to carry out volunteer work in the first year after they leave school compared to just over half of those in the highest category. Given that students who enjoy reading are more likely to study full-time and study at university, they may have more flexibility with their time than those who undertake full-time paid work or earning-while-learning options, making volunteer work more of a possibility.

Combinations of activities and options

Students’ certainty about attending university in their first year after leaving school also came through in the patterns of the combinations of activities they thought were very likely for them. More than two-thirds of those with a very likely intention to go to university (70 percent), intended it as the only option they would take. Only a quarter intending to go to university thought there was another option they were very likely to take.

Just over half of those intending to go to polytechnic (53 percent) or engage in an earning-while- learning option (53 percent) also thought this would be their sole activity. Around half of the students expecting to travel thought they would combine it with one other activity (49 percent) and just over half expecting to work thought they would combine it with another activity (53 percent). Those considering taking a break from study or work were fairly evenly split between whether this would be the only thing (36 percent), or one of two (27 percent), or one of three or more (36 percent) possibilities in the first year of leaving school.

Table  16: Combinations of very likely activities

	University     %	Polytechnic      %	Earning- while- learning     %	PTE*                 %	Travel               %	Work or study break             %	Full-time paid work       %
1 option	70	53	53	40	38	36	27
2 options	25	27	23	40	49	27	53
3 or more options	5	20	23	20	14	36	20

* PTE is Private Training Establishment.
Note: Some columns do not add to 100 percent because of rounding.

It is possible that students indicating more than one activity as very likely intend to undertake a combination of activities or options. However, it is also likely that some of the activities they signalled as very likely are back up options to others, reflecting a tendency for young people to apply a kind of reflexive risk management to their post-school activities and career decisions, while factoring in possible disappointments and disruptions (e.g., job loss, under employment), multiple pathway opportunities, and changes of life/career direction (Vaughan, 2005). Some of those intending to go to into tertiary studies may well be considering other ways and means of pursuing their particular career interests, as well as the possibility of missing out on a place in their course of choice.

Reasons for intended activities

The following table shows students’ reasons for their very likely or likely intentions in their first year of leaving school. We categorised the reasons in order to show up motivation patterns: pursuing explicit and known interests, exploring new interests, or external drivers or uncertainty.

The activities most linked (more than 20 percent) with explicit interest-based reasons such as studying or following up something of particular interest are attending university or polytechnic, earning-while-learning option, and travelling. The activities most linked with exploration-based reasons, such as keeping specific options open, are attending university or polytechnic, travelling, and taking a break. The activities most linked with external drivers, such as other people’s suggestions, are earning-while-learning, full-time paid work, and attending university.

In the case of students expecting to go to university or a polytechnic, interest-based reasons prevail, particularly those associated with pursuing explicit interests. As the reasons become less focused and more externally driven (scanning down the first two columns of the following table), the percentage of students selecting these reasons in relation to university or polytechnic diminishes. An exception is the comparatively high percentage of students reporting that others suggested they go to university (a suggestion from parents for 26 percent; a suggestion from teachers for 17 percent).

Table  17: Reasons given for initial post-school destinations/activities

	University	Polytechnic	Earning- while- learning	Full-time paid work	Travel	Break     from study or work
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Pursuing explicit interests
To gain qualifications to get a job	62	44	31	–	5	–
Can study things did well in at school	54	46	27	–	–	–
To gain new knowledge in interest area	47	37	–	–	–	–
Leads to a specific job I know I want	40	32	36	9	6	–
Always wanted to do this	30	13	18	8	54	–
Exploring interests and options
To keep specific careers options open	27	22	16	7	8	9
To try things and find out what I want to do	23	15	18	12	29	15
Break from study or work	–	–	–	15	25	48
External drivers and uncertainty
Parents suggested it	26	15	8	8	7	1
Teachers suggested it	17	13	6	2	1	9
Friends doing it and want to be with them	5	4	1	4	8	2
It’s the only option open to me right now	3	4	3	4	<1	2
I don’t know what else to do	2	3	2	–	2	3
Starting earning money now	–	–	35	50	11	–
Avoid student loan	–	–	25	32	7	17

Note: Cells with a – indicate items that were not available for students to select as a response.

Around a third of students expecting to do some form of further education or training (40 percent university, 32 percent polytechnic, 36 percent earning-while-learning) thought this would lead to a job they knew they wanted. However, only 9 percent of those expecting to be in full-time work thought it would lead to a job they knew they wanted.

There was a strong sense of a long standing interest or plan for those intending to go to university and/or to travel. Almost a third of the university group (30 percent) and over half of the travel group (54 percent) reported that they had always wanted to pursue their option. The travel group was also interesting in that their reasons were very concentrated in just a few areas: always wanting to travel; taking a break from study or work; and trying out things to find out what they wanted to do.

The earning-while-learning group responses were spread mainly across the explicit interest-based reasons and the external drivers, and less so across the exploration-based reasons. Students indicated a combination of pursuing particular interests and jobs (31 percent wanted qualifications, 36 percent a specific job, and 27 percent to study things they did well in at school), and financial drivers (35 percent wanted to earn money now, 25 percent wanted to avoid a student loan).

Half of the students who wanted to go into full-time work mainly wanted to start earning money (50 percent) and a third wanted to avoid a student loan (32 percent). These students appeared to be driven by financial, rather than career, imperatives. Very few had reasons related to other people—e.g., parents (8 percent) or teachers (2 percent) suggesting it or friends doing it (4 percent). Very few had always wanted to work (8 percent) or had career-building reasons—e.g., it would lead to a specific desired job (9 percent), to keep specific options open (7 percent), to try things and find what I want to do (12 percent), or did not know what else to do (4 percent). There was, however, a small group that wanted a break from study (15 percent).

The students who wanted a break from study or work not surprisingly gave their main reason as wanting a break (48 percent). Seventeen percent cited avoidance of a student loan and another 15 percent felt it would give them a chance to try things and find out what they wanted to do. Nine percent reported that their teachers made the suggestion of a break—a higher proportion of teachers than those suggesting earning-while-learning, full-time work, or travel—suggesting that some teachers might see a break as more useful for some students.

Understanding intentions

Our data show that some students are more likely to operate with a certain amount of “space” that makes further study, usually university study, and the pursuit of high-level skills, qualifications, and careers more possible. For other students, circumstances seem much tighter and these show up in the variables of mother’s qualifications, school decile, family income at 16, and low quartile scores for cognitive competency and the need to earn money.

The data feed into existing youth transition research and government data that have looked at young people’s transition from school in terms of measurable aspirations to be compared with measurable destinations. Some of these studies and datasets are used by policy makers and policy managers to make predictions about which young people will stick with certain pathways, how reliably certain pathways produce specified destination outcomes, and which young people need the most support choosing and gaining entry study, training, or employment pathways. For example, the Ministry of Education’s ongoing data collections on school leavers and tertiary enrolment and completions show that students who enter university or an institute of technology and polytechnics direct from school are more likely to complete a qualification over a seven-year period than those who enter from the workforce (Ussher, 2006). The Australian Longitudinal Studies of Australian Youth (LSAY) have identified factors that may influence young people outside the labour force and full-time education to return to work or study (Hillman, 2005). The LSAY longitudinal data on young people’s aspirations have shown that intentions to continue with education expressed in junior secondary school are important indications of actually continuing in education, and that attitudes to school are more strongly related to educational intentions than any aspects of student background, including socioeconomic background (Khoo & Ainley, 2005). However, our study shows that social advantage is related to positive attitudes to school.

We are also aware that there are assumptions embedded in approaches which seek to track young people or isolate factors, particularly if they take what young people do (course enrolments, qualifications gained, jobs taken up) as a proxy for what it means to the young people and where it might lead. Other research has challenged the idea of recording only “destinations” or trying to pair up aspirations with destinations. Some researchers have pointed to the “increasingly indeterminate” start and end points of the transition process (Raffe, 2001; Wyn & Dwyer, 1999), the multi directional as well as linear nature of the process (te Riele, 2004), and that it is framed by the changing markers for, and forms of, adulthood (Arnett, 2006)—all things which are not easily measured.

Other researchers have focused on the reasons for pathway or destination choices as a combination of the individual, the contingent, and the structural (e.g., related to the educational institution or course provision) (Hodkinson & Bloomer, 2001). Researchers have also shown that the same post-school studies, training courses, and jobs can play quite different roles in young people’s lives and that young people do not so much follow or enter pathways and careers as “produce” them (Vaughan et al., 2006). There are also problems in the use of destination categories (e.g., not in employment, education or training) for socially excluded young people if there is no appreciation of their frames of reference (Hodkinson & Bloomer, 2001; Watts, 2001; Yates & Payne, 2006).

In other words: we know that our data, and some of the data available through other research, tell us about aspirations and destinations only in the sense of initial or immediate aspirations and destinations from school. These can be a good guide in predicting trajectories in people’s lives, often because measures can show up patterns of inequality. For example, we can show differences related to socio economic status (family income at 16, mother’s qualifications, school decile) and differences in aspirations related to other variables about their “learning platforms” (cognitive composite competency, attendance, social skills) and learning identities (focused and responsible, motivation at 14, enjoyment of reading).

However, care should still be taken not to misread these patterns of inequality in an overly deterministic way or in a way that forecloses the possibility of measuring, analysing, and understanding changes to those trajectories. While different groups of students have more or less “space” within which to operate and make post-school choices, their trajectories can be altered by what teachers do or bring to students’ learning, not just by what students do and bring to the classroom. There is evidence that students enjoy, and are engaged with, certain school subjects more than others but there is also evidence that any subject can be made more enjoyable by teaching learning practices that get students to take an active role, and that these practices can positively affect how students see themselves as learners (Wylie et al., in press). Following from this, and from Khoo and Ainley’s (2005) finding that attitudes to school are strongly related to future educational intentions, how students see themselves as school learners is therefore also likely to affect how they see themselves as learners into the future, including in further study and their careers.