Retention of students in senior secondary schools
An estimated three-quarters of students remained at school to their 17th birthday. Retention rates have been gradually increasing since 2002. However, substantial differences still exist between girls and boys, and Māori and non-Māori.
Date Updated: January 2009
Indicator Description
Percentage of students staying on at school to age 17.
What We Have Found
An estimated three-quarters of students remained at school to their 17th birthday. Retention rates have been gradually increasing since 2002. However, substantial differences still exist between girls and boys, and Māori and non-Māori.
Why This Is Important
Completion of upper secondary education is associated with a range of economic and social benefits both in New Zealand and across the OECD. Retention to senior secondary schooling is linked to higher levels of skills and knowledge required for participation in our increasingly knowledge-based society and the wider global community. OECD education ministers have emphasized "Quality education for all" (OECD, 2001) and with improving standards and average achievements, it is likely to be a moving target over the next generations (Hutmacher, 2001).The positive effect of each additional year of schooling on incomes has been estimated to range from 5 to 10% (Norton et al. 2000). The risk of unemployment for those with no school qualifications or only Year 11 qualifications is higher than for those with Year 12 or Year 13 qualifications. At present there is little systematic evidence about the comparative value of alternatives to senior schooling.
Lashlie (2005) found that one of the factors important for successful school leaving for boys was merely staying at school until the end of the seventh form. This is because it takes boys longer to achieve a high level of maturity and self-management than girls, and that boys’ schools in particular can ‘hold boys steady while the chaos of adolescence sorts itself.’ Simply keeping boys at school (by making school relevant) until they have decided what they want their next step in life to be, can reduce the chances of a boy ‘arriving at a prison gate’.
How We Are Going
For the last two years most schools used a new method of electronic student roll collection to submit disaggregated school leaver data. This has enabled the accurate estimation of percentages of students remaining at school to their 17th birthday to be calculated. In 2007 an estimated 75.0% of students stayed at school to their 17th birthday.
Māori students had the lowest estimated proportions of students remaining at school to age 17, with 57.5%. This compares with an estimated retention rate of 80.1% for Pasifika and 76.6% for European/Pākehā.
Estimated percentage of students staying on at school to age 17, by ethnic group (2007)
These measures were calculated using the proportions of school leavers aged 16 and 17 or above respectively, from a file of disaggregated school leaver records. As the data included just over 90% of school leavers all figures are estimates.
To analyse retention rates over time aggregate data have to be used. The historical measure of retention of students in senior secondary schools is a snapshot of retention at a point in time, in this case as at 1 July of each year.
Aggregate roll returns only capture the age of students in years, therefore, the indicator is a measure of those who stay at school to age 17.5 (on average). Since the denominator for the measure is the number of students in the 1 July roll return from the year students were aged 14.5 on average, net migration can also affect results.
Retention rates for 17.5 year-olds have been gradually increasing since 2002. The 2008 retention rate for 17.5 year-olds was 62.3%. This is a 1.4% increase from 2007, which is the biggest yearly increase since 2004.
Estimated percentage of students staying on at school to age 17.5, by ethnic group (2002 to 2008)
This measure is calculated from aggregate roll return data which captures the age of the students in whole years. Therefore, a student aged 17 on 1 July, could be between 17 years and 0 days and 17 years and 364 days. Statistically it is a measure of those who stay at school to age 17.5 years on average.
The low Māori retention rate to age 17 is also present in the analysis for 17.5 year-old students. In 2008, 40.4% of Māori remained at school to age 17.5, compared with 70.0% for Pasifika and 63.5% European/Pākehā. The gap between Māori and non-Māori in the rate of 17.5 year-old students remaining at school has not closed over time. The relatively high rates for Pasifika are a reflection of the importance that Pasifika families and communities place on their children staying in education.
Girls aged 17.5 years-old are more likely to stay at school than boys, with 66.9% of girls and 57.9% of boys making it past 17.5 years-old in 2008. This difference has changed little since 2002.
Estimated percentage of students staying on at school to age 17.5, by gender (2002 to 2008)
This measure is calculated from aggregate roll return data which captures the age of the students in whole years. Therefore, a student aged 17 on 1 July, could be between 17 years and 0 days and 17 years and 364 days. Statistically it is a measure of those who stay at school to age 17.5 years on average.
There is also a clear correlation between quintile (the socio-economic mix of the school the student attended) and the percentage of 17.5 year-old students remaining at school. Schools in the highest quintile (deciles 9 and 10) draw their students from communities with the lowest degree of socio-economic disadvantage. Students from these schools are 63% more likely to remain at school to age 17.5 than students in the lowest quintile (deciles 1 and 2).
Estimated percentage of students staying on at school to age 17.5, by school quintile (2008)
- Due to the high positive net migration for Asians, retention rates in schools with high Asian student populations are erroneously inflated. Given the disproportionately large concentration of Asian students in higher SES schools the graph above excludes Asian students.
- This measure is calculated from aggregate roll return data which captures the age of the students in whole years. Therefore, a student aged 17 on 1 July, could be between 17 years and 0 days and 17 years and 364 days. Statistically it is a measure of those who stay at school to age 17.5 years on average.
Where To Find Out More
To obtain information about school leavers consider indicators:
- School leavers with NCEA Level 1 or above
- School leavers with NCEA Level 2 or above
- School leavers with a university entrance standard
To explore student disengagement consider indicators:
- Truancy from school
- Early leaving exceptions
- Stand-downs from school
- Suspensions from school
- Exclusions and expulsions from school
The Ministry of Education has established an Iterative Best Evidence Synthesis Programme to systematically identify, evaluate, analyse, synthesise and make accessible, relevant evidence linked to a range of learner outcomes. Evidence about what works for this indicator can be found in:
References
Alton-Lee, A. (2003).Quality Teaching for Diverse Students in Schooling: Best Evidence Synthesis. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
Hutmacher, W. Introduction. In W. Hutmacher, D. Cochrane, N. Bottani. (2001). In Pursuit of Equity in Education: Using International Indicators to Compare Equity Policies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Lashlie, C. (2005). He'll Be OK: Growing Gorgeous Boys Into Good Men. Auckland: HarperCollins.
Ministry of Education (2007). New Zealand’s Tertiary Education Sector: Profile & Trends 2006. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
Norton, P., Sanderson, K., Booth, T., & Stroombergen, A. (2000). A literature review of the effect of school resourcing on educational outcomes. Report to the Ministry of Education. Wellington: Ministry of Education.
OECD (2001). Schooling for tomorrow: What skills for the future? Paris: OECD.
Related Pages on Education Counts
The July School Roll Return data collection page provides links to data, publications and indicators based on that collection.